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How much of the Nats vote do we think is Provest’s personal vote here? If he retires in the lead up it could be a sign the Coalition believe the tide is truly out this time.
On the other hand if Minns is seen as a little too moderate in these parts the Nats might benefit from OPV
@Maxim this is usually a Nationals seat. Chris Minns is seen as being moderate enough but I still don’t think Labor will win this.
Labor held it during the Carr years and on Federal results I imagine it’s an easy Labor flip, I’d wager if Provest retires Labor sweep home here given the current environment
I don’t think Geoff Provest will lose this but it might flip when he retires. Legalise Cannabis and Sustainable Australia parties are able to split the left-leaning vote or protest vote. A lot of their voters exhaust their votes rather than preference Labor. This makes it hard for Labor to win this.
If Geoff Provest retires, the Liberals should run – it is now essentially an urban seat and with continuing growth even more so. Problem for the Nats would be – if they give up Tweed willingly or unwillingly, then Richmond would also go, and the Nats retreat even further.
With OPV it is often hard for two Coalition candidates unlike the Federal level. I dont think Nats will give it willingly because there is nothing they can get from Libs in return to sacrifice this seat.
There probably is nothing the Nats can get in return as Tweed is an electorate where they have probably hit the end of the road. Until recently I would have said that there are people out there who would vote Liberal but not National – with the decline of the Libs into a rump that probably doesn’t hold for now.
I personally would prefer a moderate National like Darren Chester rather than a hard right Liberal like Hastie, Deeming, Jacinta Price
Personally, i would prefer if some right wing Libs like Garth Hamilton, Alex Antic join Nats and seats like Groom and Barker are represented by the Nats rather than Libs it would allow Libs to be more centrist. In Victoria, the Nats seem to be more moderate and electable than State Libs.
@Nimalan, Antic is more of a UAP or Libertarian rather than a Nat as he focuses on Cooker Conservativism.
@ Marh
I agree he is more of a Cooker but he also is religiously conservative on Trans issues etc and Nationalist for example anti-Welcome to country.
@Nimalan, I wonder if Antic aligns well with people like far-right lecturer Stephen Chavura as he is a nationalist (he recently sprouted that only Anglo-Saxon Australians being the legimate Australians despite being half Slavic himself) and anti-vax cooker. Note Chavura was a Candidate for Family Firdt for the seat of Bennelong in 2010 and for Christian Democratic Party for Banks in 2007.
There is news article about him being by a far-right lecturer. https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-far-right-figures-teaching-students-at-a-sydney-college-20250930-p5mz2v.html
@ Marh
It maybe a sign that Antic is more Christian Nationalist. I think East and Southern Europeans are trending right . For example Steve Christou. Drew Pavlou now describes himself as a National Conservative. There were some Croatian Australians who booed Welcome to country. I think post-October 7 the right are trending towards Anti-multulturalism and maybe thats is why Steven Chavura is getting more promimance. The discussion about sectarianism, Social Cohesion maybe coded language against non Europeans especially ones who are not Christian.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-02/sydney-united-fans-nazi-salutes-welcome-to-country-booed/101494818
A commenter on a news website said that their ideal Liberal ticket would be Hastie, Price, Antic, and Matt Canavan. Such a lineup would be toxic to Millennials and Gen Zed in a Federal election.
I would think a teal type voter would be someone who would vote Liberal but not National. Definitely an urban-only voter, probably younger. But those voters all leaked away.
@Craig, if the Coalition become a party of the Alt-right Nationalist like the Trump’s GOP with people you mentioned, then the Coalition would virtually be finished with Teal-type voters and becomes unwinnable as there would probably few urban seats (if any) left.
I’m pretty sure the nats will lose this post 2027.
@John to the Libs? I think the chapter’s closing for Labor here.