To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
Due to the extremely close result, this will be seen as a target seat for both parties. But I can see Jordan Lane as the incumbent hanging on (even with a swing in his favour), if the overall statewide swing to Labor is minimal, as this is a seat where an incumbent MP can build up a personal vote.
The two previous MP’s (Victor Dominello of the Liberals and John Watkins of Labor) both had a strong personal vote which allowed them to win with margins several percent above the statewide average.
I think Jordan Lane is a hard working popular MP and i hope he gets relected despite the very low margin and being a prime target seat for Labor.
Agree Nimalan – Jordan Lane could be the Liberal analogue of Jerome Laxale, the Labor MP who holds the overlapping federal seat of Bennelong. Laxale was seen as a long shot to win re-election given the seat was transformed into a notional Liberal held one, but he achieved a big swing in his favour (even exceeding the statewide swing to Labor). Perhaps Jordan Lane could also achieve a similar result where he outperforms the statewide result by several percent too.
Surprisingly Laxale was the Labor candidate in this seat previously (running in 2011, 2015 and 2019) and was also Jordan Lane’s predecessor as Mayor of Ryde council.
This seat seem to have amongst the most wildest swings was as it was 65% for Labor in 2003 and 60% in 2007 but rapidly turned Liberals in 2008 by-election at 63% and in 2011 it became 76% (both due to poor approval for NSW Labor Government). I wonder how it voted Labor at large margins in 2000s given it is in a region of Sydney that tends to traditionally vote Liberals? ( I understand it more middle class than its surrounding regions but even that looked very inflated)
Marh, I think Ryde is considered a swing type seat like its overlapping federal district Bennelong.
The strong Labor result during the early 2000’s was probably a combination of the personal vote of sitting MP John Watkins (who also served as Deputy Premier under Iemma) and also the fact that this was when One Nation/Pauline Hanson were pushing hard on anti-Asian narrative which played poorly with the CALD minority voters here, just like Morrison/Dutton’s anti-China rhetoric federally.
@ Marh
I feel this is area is like City of Whitehorse or parts of Monash council such as Glen Waverly/Mount Waverley in Melbourne so a middle class CALD area it is not super wealthy like North Shore or Northern Beaches.
@ Yoh An
There is also a young Liberal councilor in Ryde, Cameron Last who i hope gets elected to parliament some day.
The NSW Liberals don’t appear to have the problems or baggage of Morrison/Dutton, as they seem to be more pragmatic and are avoiding any mention of fringe, culture war type issues. This will help them to retain Ryde and other seats that have significant CALD minority populations.
Really this seat should be called Eastwood since Ryde itself is split between this seat and Lane Cove. Agree this area is really synonymous with Glen Waverley demographically. The current Bennelong is very similar to the current Chisholm. However, this is the sort of demographic the Libs have managed to completely alienate over the past few elections. This is an area that should normally be quite comfortable for the Libs.
Dan, I agree Ryde council is split between both Ryde and Lane Cove. But I thought all of Ryde town centre is in its namesake seat with only the fringe residential areas being excluded.
Agree that the Ryde area is similar Mount Waverley as well as Vermont/Vermont South both in Melbourne as they are middle-class to upper middle class with a growing Chinese population.
@ Marh
I used to think Winston Hills/Oatlands was a bit like Vermont as well more Liberal leaning. Manningham is probably a mix of the Eastern Hills (Castle Hill, Glenhaven, sem-rural areas ) and Hornsby (Cherrybrook, West Pennant Hills, Beecroft, Cheltenham)