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Surprised that this seat is so safe for Labor. It overlaps with the marginal federal district of Paterson, which Labor holds with a sub 5% margin and where the Liberals won the 2PP across many polling places (mostly east of Williamtown/Newcastle Airport in the Nelson Bay coastal communities).
@ Yoh An
Paterson on 2023 State Results based on Federal 2022 boundaries would have a margin of 19.2% Labor. Nether Portal kindly calculated Please note NSW does OPV so that possibly has some impact. There is a difference in Federal and State results where State Labor is doing better in Hunter and Outer Western Sydney (Lindsay) while State Libs are doing better is more highly educated areas (Ryde, North Shore, Eastern Suburbs, Canada Bay LGA, Northern Beaches). Less evidence of realignemnt at state level due to Economic policy being main difference
Fair point/s Nimalan – with both parties in NSW being agnostic/neutral on social issues, there is evidence of a stronger class divide with many blue-collar areas like the Hunter Valley having greater support for Labor at the state level compared to their federal vote. Likewise, the affluent inner-city suburbs contained within the teal heartland seats are stronger for the Liberals vs their federal vote.
@ Yoh An
Correct the Fact that Lindsay is a Labor/Longman seat on state results also highlight to me that Labor can still win there someday but they can only win an economic arguement not a social one. Likewise many people in places like Hunters Hill dont care about bulk billing rates or privatising medicare so a Mediscare campaign does not work but they will support climate action.
Tasmania is another example where both parties are agnostic/neutral on social issues.