Oatley – NSW 2027

The waterfront suburbs here are increasingly affluent and better for Libs compared to the statewide average. Labor can still win but probably not the margin they won during Carr-Iemma years.

Oatley has been getting more favourable to the Coalition than the state average.

@Nimalan, the riverside suburbs (Lugarno, Oatley, Connells Point) are now solidly Liberal. They are low density and being close to the water, the houses are really expensive.

Across the Old Como Bridge is Como. Como is quite affluent and riverside too. However, it is quite teal-ish and socially progressive.

Agree Votante,
Whilst Greater Sydney is growing in population the amount of waterfront land between the Hawkesbury River and the Royal National Park remains the same so as time goes these land will be more highly sought after and expensive. To see if a seat is trending Labor/Lib we need to see compare it to State wide average over a period of time. Oatley, East Hills, Bathurst and Drommyone are getting more favourable to Coalition compared to statewide average.
Bega, Blue Mountains, Ballina are getting more Labor/Left compared to statewide average. It is possible that South Coast is following a left-ward trend but too early too tell.

It is very easy to identify those trends if you look at the line graph in this guide (assuming you’ve signed up for access).

Labor drifting to the right should add caution to assessing if seats are drifting to Labor, as those more middle class seats could eventually swing against Labor at the first hint of weakening economic conditions, and if Labor decides to lean more to the left.

Yes i have access and the electorates that i mentioned above are trending the way i mentioned. South Coast had the pretty much same Labor TPP as statewide last time. It was an open seat in 2023. Labor only won once before in 1999 (barely). It will be interesting to see if Labor wins South Coast in 2027 in which case first time they have won for two consecutive terms and if they do win whether their margin is greater than statewide TPP.

Will ONP contest a seat like Oatley? What kind of primary would they get here – and does it just hand the seat to Labor because of OPV?

I wonder if there are some seats where there is an informal decision not to contest by ONP which is a factor in the NSW State election. Hard to predict a straight ALP/LP fight outcome nowadays.

@Lars, this is one of the first seats Labor announced a candidate for. It has a slim margin and they’re putting stock into it. Thanks to right-wing vote splitting and the likely drop in the Liberal primary vote, Labor has a good chance.

I am sure ONP will contest here. They contested in all seats in SA and looks like they will contest all seats in Vic.

Agree with your post Votante definitely at risk if ONP and LP run in Oatley given OPV. I am not so sure that there isn’t or won’t be a tacit understanding between ONP and LP for the ONP to not run in some seats especially after the Vic election. Oatley and for that matter Ryde would be low vote seats for ONP , with the only real benefit substantially increasing the chances of the ALP getting elected.

The picture will be clear enough in February I guess.

Mark Coure has announced his retirement from politics. He’s from the Liberal/National batch of 2011. Coure won marginally in 2011. At each of his 3 re-elections, his primary vote percentage was higher than the statewide Coalition one.

Unless there is a big change between now and March – the Libs can count Oatley as gawn.

Labor now really need to win seats such as Oatley, Ryde, Drummoyne etc in order to ensure they retain government and certainly if they want a majority. They will be massively on the defensive in the provincial/industrial heartlands whilst on the offensive in any Liberal marginals closer to the city

I agree with @Votante that Mark Coure was a hardworking and popular MP. However, i would point out Oatley is demographically becoming better for the Liberals compared to the statewide vote due to increasing affluence along the waterfront, the same with East Hills and Drommoyne not saying that Labor cannot win it at high tide elections. Interestingly, while Labor regained Banks last federal election the Labor TPP was below the statewide TPP indicating its rightward shift.
Further to what @Maxim said i also think Winston Hills needs to be top Tier target for Labor it is not an area where i expect ONP to do well.
I feel ONP may play spoiler in Miranda with OPV and perhaps Epping will be targetted as it is a classic ALP V LIB area. i still doubt the seats of Lane Cove, Manly or Willougby will be targeted even if Labor makes 2CP i think a lot of Teal votes will exhaust and ONP will not play spoiler there.
I also think Labor will be on the defensive in Penrith and Camden in addition to the provincial/industrial heartland seats.

Looking like a great election for Chris Minns (despite the spin). Liberal incumbents self-selecting out of which Coure is the most recent example following Henskens and Griffin in Sydney Metro . The Oatley retirement is more a reflection on what he thought his chances were and chances are ONP fades in the home strait to March as well.

Will Jordan Lane retire in Ryde now – one term and done?

Mark Coure has a strong personal vote. He had the advantage of low-density, riverside suburbs becoming more affluent and more Liberal-leaning. I remember that Oatley was too close to call last state election night. I think Chris Minns has local popularity as he grew up in this area and the swing to Labor was in line with the state swing.

@Nimalan, Maxim, I agree that middle ring seats like Oatley, Ryde and Drummoyne are key targets. They all have low margins. Winston Hills is winnable for Labor because of its low margin, retiring member and CALD communities.

Labor will likely lose outer suburban or regional seats to One Nation. To compensate, they’d need to pick up low-margin Liberal seats in metropolitan Sydney.