To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
The waterfront suburbs here are increasingly affluent and better for Libs compared to the statewide average. Labor can still win but probably not the margin they won during Carr-Iemma years.
Oatley has been getting more favourable to the Coalition than the state average.
@Nimalan, the riverside suburbs (Lugarno, Oatley, Connells Point) are now solidly Liberal. They are low density and being close to the water, the houses are really expensive.
Across the Old Como Bridge is Como. Como is quite affluent and riverside too. However, it is quite teal-ish and socially progressive.
Agree Votante,
Whilst Greater Sydney is growing in population the amount of waterfront land between the Hawkesbury River and the Royal National Park remains the same so as time goes these land will be more highly sought after and expensive. To see if a seat is trending Labor/Lib we need to see compare it to State wide average over a period of time. Oatley, East Hills, Bathurst and Drommyone are getting more favourable to Coalition compared to statewide average.
Bega, Blue Mountains, Ballina are getting more Labor/Left compared to statewide average. It is possible that South Coast is following a left-ward trend but too early too tell.
It is very easy to identify those trends if you look at the line graph in this guide (assuming you’ve signed up for access).
Labor drifting to the right should add caution to assessing if seats are drifting to Labor, as those more middle class seats could eventually swing against Labor at the first hint of weakening economic conditions, and if Labor decides to lean more to the left.
Yes i have access and the electorates that i mentioned above are trending the way i mentioned. South Coast had the pretty much same Labor TPP as statewide last time. It was an open seat in 2023. Labor only won once before in 1999 (barely). It will be interesting to see if Labor wins South Coast in 2027 in which case first time they have won for two consecutive terms and if they do win whether their margin is greater than statewide TPP.