Newtown – NSW 2027

If I’m not mistaken, the 2023 Greens primary vote result was their highest ever in any single-member seat in the country.

I’m planning on merging this with Summer Hill come redistribution to recreate Marickville.

@ Votante
Yes you are correct this exceeded the vote for Adam Bandt in 2022. Only time when it has gone over 50% i think even if Jenny Leong retires and CPV is introduced this seat is too left-wing for Labor to win back. It is much more left-wing than Ballina or even Balmain. The areas adjacent to King Street maybe the most left-wing place in the nation.

Newtown is very left-wing with a strong “watermelon” Green vote. Balmain is more in play. Balmain is more affluent.

My hypothesis is that the Greens primary vote will decline because of overperformance last election and also rising rents and property prices pricing out younger voters and students. There is also the brand damage that has hurt the Greens in various inner-city seats at recent elections.

@ Votante
Great points i agree Newtown is more “watermelon”and rising rents can change the demographic. However, i think for example the Pro-Palestine stance and even people like Lidia Thrope are well liked here. It has a very alternative culture. I do feel Greens are losing the Tealish vote people who voted for Turnbull in 2016 and in the absence of a Teal voted Green. That vote has been going to Labor especially Inner Brisbane. I think there has been Brand damage by Greens grandstanding especially on housing but that has been in the Tealish demographic.

Nimalan/Votante, given that the Greens may be starting to build support amongst blue collar, ‘working class’ voters of CALD minority backgrounds (some improved results in places like Footscray in Melbourne and Elizabeth/Parafield Gardens in Adelaide) – would that mean the Greens could potentially build up support in places like Fairfield and Yennora which may have similar demographics. This would offset their declining support in the affluent, teal friendly suburbs which are more established and have voters who are tertiary educated professionals working in white collar type roles.

The Greens have already increased their support in similar types of suburbs in Brisbane, such as Moorooka.

@ Yoh An
In Footscary is winnable for Greens. I think Northern Adelaide while Greens may come second they cannot win same with places Like Lakemba, Yennora etc they may outpoll Libs but cannot win. Greens even outpolled Libs in St Albans at the Federal election.
While Fraser is talked about as a Greens pick up. I still think it is hard as i dont see Labor getting knocked out of the 2CP in area that is not tealish at all. Greens also need a very high primary to overcome the facts Libs dont preference them these days.

Fair points Nimalan. Overall, the Greens are at a disadvantage under CPV because whilst they will exchange preferences with Labor, that doesn’t occur with the Liberal Party who recommend preferences to Labor. In effect, Labor gets double the benefit receiving favourable preferences for both standard 2PP contests (ALP vs Liberal) and also Labor vs Green party contests. Whereas the Greens only get favourable preferences for Greens vs Liberal 2CP contests and not ones that finish as Labor vs Greens.

Under OPV, the Greens don’t face this disadvantage as the Liberals just recommend voting ‘1’ only and therefore the Greens can compete more on a head-to-head basis with Labor.

Correct Yoh An
That is the reason the only seat they won this time is Ryan because it was the only GRN V LIB 2CP. To win an ALP V GRN they need to outpoll Labor on primaries signficantly which is why they narrowly failed in Wills eventhough Greens got 45% of the 3CP. It is probably why Richmond is probably one of their better targets now
ONP faces a simmilar dillemma especially as CPV has been introduced in QLD at a state level
They can only win seats where there is potential for a ALP V ONP 2CP such as Mulgrave, Thurngoowa, Maryborough, Keppel, Mirani etc. They cannot win Scenic Rim, Lockyer etc without a very high Primary vote as Labor will never preference them.

The area between Rockhampton and Mackay is probly their best bet. Mulgrave and thuringowa are more favourable for the kap as they will get labor preferences to over onp. Keppel currently contains parts of Rockhampton which is better for labor and would help the lnp retain. The keppel I drew removes Rockhampton so that would be beneficial to onp

@ John
ONP needs Labor to make the 2CP for them to win seats. Thats why they tend to also do well in elections where Coalition is not doing as well like 1998 or 2017. 2024 was a bad year for ONP because LNP surged. Anyway i will post shortly in Thuringowa thread for us to continue the conversation there.

@Nimalan, would you say the area around King St, Newtown is even more left-wing than the area around Sydney Rd, Brunswick (or specifically that whole area between Sydney Rd & Lygon St)?

While the Greens’ primary vote was higher in Newtown, part of the reason it’s lower around Brunswick is actually because there’s a double-digit Socialist vote splitting off even further to the left. At the 2025 election for Wills, the 3 polling places around the Sydney Rd to Lygon St area had Greens primaries between 49-54%, but Socialist Alliance primaries averaging around 12% on top of that.

@Trent
I was thinking the Melbourne equivilant of King Street, Newtown will be around Brunswick Street, Fitzroy both areas are famous for Live Music etc.
Reason i feel Brunswick is a bit different it has a lot of 1960s style Walk up Flats and a more shared house culture which is a bit different from Terraced homes in Newtown and Fitzroy. I think Brunswick has a lot more young renter due to density and less heritage listing. Perhaps Brunswick is becoming more left-wing than Fitzroy now.

As a Sydney resident who has been to Newtown and Brunswick this year, I’d say Brunswick feels more left-wing. I was in Brunswick in April this year (right before the federal election), and saw a lot of Greens and VS signs. You get a very left vibe almost if you visit Brunswick and that inner-northern part of Melbourne to be very honest, mainly from the people there and a fair few businesses.

Politically, yes Brunswick does feel more left compared to Newtown. You have the Greens and VS who do quite well and altogether actually perform better than Newtown I believe, though Newtown has the affinity of only having the Greens and no risk of a split Green-VS vote.

My assessment of Brunswick happens to be around the time I visited in July this year. It’s very worn down, dilapidated, and extremely 70s/80s looking. Lots of graffiti, you can smell the weed/smoke in the atmosphere, and it’s super hippie/left wing with a lot of the Socialist Alternative stuff near the town hall. Surprisingly, a lot of older people seems to live in Brunswick which doesn’t seem very far left unless if I’m missing something here.

Newtown I’ve always imagined to be a slightly ‘posher’ version of Brunswick, probably similar to Northcote and Thornbury in Melbourne rather than Brunswick. It seems that at least in Newtown, there’s a sense of ‘Bohemian’ vibes of vintage upper-class combined with a scent of hippie movement whereas in Brunswick it’s like the metropolitan countercultural capital of Australia.

Pretty sure the consensus is that Brunswick is the most left wing place in Australia. I heard the reason for this trend is because Brunswick has lots of individuals being descendants from old working class and/or creatives so they are probably more likely to feel more economic insecure hence are more vocal advocates of left-wing economic policies.

Marh i dunno marrickville might be a contender

At the federal election there was one booth in Camperdown where the combined Labor / Greens vote was 93%, a few in Brunswick are around 90%. Frankly between Brunswick and Newtown it is probably neck and neck – call it a draw.

What about Fitzroy? i always thought it was most left wing.
Carlton North PS booth had the highest vote for both Voice and republic
I think Marrickville is more like Footscary and less gentrified