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Labor have a real shot of winning this especially if its go by the current polling
This margin maybe deceptively low as Teal vote exhausted last there is a 21% Primary Gap between Libs and Labor and the teal nearly outpolled Labor. I think Labor needs to secure Winston Hills and increasing its margin in Liverpool before trying for a North Shore seat. Even if Labor makes 2CP many Teal voters may just exhaust their vote. In NSW there little difference in social policy between Labor/Libs so affluent voters have less incentive to protest.
State Labor is also more conservative and more focused on Western Sydney/Hunter and Illawara.
Agree Nimalan – Lane Cove is probably a mini version of the old North Sydney federal seat, where Labor and teal candidates will be roughly tied for second and third place. In that case, OPV will work against both candidates and help the Liberal Party to win due to exhausted preferences.
Labor is better off focusing their efforts on the middle ring districts – which would be places like Winston Hills, Ryde, Oatley and possibly Drummoyne as these places are less teal friendly and more suitable to target using an economic/cost of living narrative which is the distinguishing factor for the Labor and Liberal parties in NSW, given that both parties are considered centrist in nature and are generally neutral/apathetic when it comes to social issues.
You An
Correct if the Federal level had OPV the Teals or Labor in Higgins would have had a tougher time defeatng the Libs. As residents here are less interested in Labor’s economic policy less incevtive to vote out Labor.
*vote out Liberal.
A friend of mine from the Northern Beaches joked that Lane Cove is “basically Western Sydney” following the result here in 2023. (Maybe the joke’s on him now that Warringah has a notional Labor 2PP!)