Lane Cove – NSW 2027

Labor have a real shot of winning this especially if its go by the current polling

This margin maybe deceptively low as Teal vote exhausted last there is a 21% Primary Gap between Libs and Labor and the teal nearly outpolled Labor. I think Labor needs to secure Winston Hills and increasing its margin in Liverpool before trying for a North Shore seat. Even if Labor makes 2CP many Teal voters may just exhaust their vote. In NSW there little difference in social policy between Labor/Libs so affluent voters have less incentive to protest.
State Labor is also more conservative and more focused on Western Sydney/Hunter and Illawara.

Agree Nimalan – Lane Cove is probably a mini version of the old North Sydney federal seat, where Labor and teal candidates will be roughly tied for second and third place. In that case, OPV will work against both candidates and help the Liberal Party to win due to exhausted preferences.

Labor is better off focusing their efforts on the middle ring districts – which would be places like Winston Hills, Ryde, Oatley and possibly Drummoyne as these places are less teal friendly and more suitable to target using an economic/cost of living narrative which is the distinguishing factor for the Labor and Liberal parties in NSW, given that both parties are considered centrist in nature and are generally neutral/apathetic when it comes to social issues.

You An
Correct if the Federal level had OPV the Teals or Labor in Higgins would have had a tougher time defeatng the Libs. As residents here are less interested in Labor’s economic policy less incevtive to vote out Labor.

*vote out Liberal.

A friend of mine from the Northern Beaches joked that Lane Cove is “basically Western Sydney” following the result here in 2023. (Maybe the joke’s on him now that Warringah has a notional Labor 2PP!)

Opv helps the liberals esp here.
Has anyone transposed the federal figures to this seat?

Surely this would be comfortably Labor on 2025 federal results, even after accounting for the impact of OPV. The Liberals won a grand total of one polling place (Hunters Hill Primary School). Even Longueville voted Labor!

Agree Nicholas, on federal figures Labor would probably also be winning Oatley, Ryde, Drummoyne and Winston Hills (some of their key target seats for the upcoming state election). Even Epping may also record a Labor 2PP given the strong ALP vote in the overlapping Berowra and Parramatta federal districts.

Thanks

At the 2025 federal election polling booths within the state seat of Lane Cove recorded a Labor 2PP of 59.30% (I counted part of the Lane Cove North booth that was shared between Lane Cove and Willoughby districts at the 2023 state election). Adding estimates for declaration votes I got a Labor 2PP of 58.67%.

The incumbent Liberal MP for Lane Cove Anthony Roberts is currenty the longest-serving Member of the NSW Legislative Assembly and is likely to retire at the 2027 state election after being the MP for this seat for 24 years. The fact that he did not accept a frontbench position in Mark Speakman’s Shadow Cabinet is a sign he is likely to retire. If he does retire, the Liberal Party needs to select a well-known moderate candidate and run a well-resourced campaign in order to retain this seat. Although the Liberal Party has never lost Lane Cove since the party first contested the seat in 1947, demographic changes and damages to the Liberal Party brand in its Northern Sydney heartland means it is no longer a seat the Liberal Party can take for granted.

@Yoh An: At the 2025 federal election polling booths within the state seat of Epping recorded a Labor 2PP of 59.88%. Adding estimates for declaration votes I got a Labor 2PP of 59.00%.

Labor 2PP for some NSW state Liberal electorates at the 2025 federal election (taking into account declaration votes):
Drummoyne: 57.97%
Lane Cove: 58.67%
Epping: 59.00%
Ryde: 59.00%
Winston Hills: 60.36%

This seat has been trending leftwards over the past few election cycles but I wouldn’t rate this as a battleground seat just yet. Based on recent federal numbers, it would be a Labor seat. I think there’s a possibility of a surprise but I wouldn’t bet on it. It depends on a few factors.

Last state election, a teal candidate was quite hyped up but didn’t make the final two. She very likely split the non-Liberal or left-wing vote. OPV helps the Liberals because of exhausted preferences. Teal candidates generally don’t specify a preference order. OPV means that Green/teal to Labor preference flows are far weaker than at the federal level. The appearance of a teal candidate in 2027 is a wild card factor as it will stir things up.

I agree that Labor has more winnable seats in middle and outer-ring suburbs on much lower margins e.g. Ryde, Winston Hills, Holsworthy, as well as seats they should sandbag. I don’t agree that it’s an either/or situation. The federal election showed that Labor can get solid swings in suburban seats and inner-city or teal-ish seats.