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If Labor wants to form government in their own right then this is a must win. I am not sure of what sort of personal vote Stephanie Di Pasqua has but if she is an effective local member there is a possibility of a sophomore surge here.
It’s definitely a battleground seat and one to watch. There’s quite a demographic mix in the seat. The western part of the seat, Rhodes, has lots of high-rise apartments and a young-ish population. The eastern part of the seat, Drummyone, is quite teal-ish. Federal figures would have this as a solid Labor seat.
Interestingly, between 1960s and 2011 it was a Labor leaning seat. The Libs could not win it during the Askin years or the Greiner/Fahey years. John Howard once ran to win this seat but failed. Post war immigration helped Labor for about 4 decades in this seat but as the seat gentrified and the Italian community became wealthier it trended Liberal
Labor will target it but i think State Libs will do better among the Chinese community and more moderate voters than Federal Libs. While Labor can still win it it is not the seat it once was.
Agree Nimalan, Drummoyne and all the riverside suburbs such as Abbotsford, Cabarita and Five Dock are now considered Liberal/conservative leaning.
I probably see this seat similar to the Queensland seat of Clayfield which also consists of some affluent, riverside suburbs such as Hamilton, Ascot and Hendra. Clayfield is a conservative/LNP leaning seat that Labor will only win during landslide victories (such as under Peter Beattie in 2001/2004).
The Liberal vote was probably depressed a little by the ICAC scandal surrounding the outgoing member here in 2022, looks touch and go with Minns in a good position to get a majority this time round
Looking at 2025 polling place results for the overlapping federal seat of Reid, the Labor 2PP vote was almost 10% lower for the most affluent suburbs (Mortlake and Breakfast Point).
Sorry 2023
@ Yohn An
I am not Sure if Hamilon, Ascot and Hendra are the right comparison as they are old money more like Hunters Hill, Rose Bay etc
I think Bulimba is probably a better comparison as it is a gentrifying area and not old money.
Fair point Nimalan, the suburbs within Clayfield are much stronger for the LNP/Liberal Party compared to those contained within Drummoyne state district. These places may be akin to suburbs on the northern side of the Parramatta River in Sydney (Hunters Hill, Birchgrove and Lane Cove) and are considered to have most voters who are of ethnically white, European backgrounds.
I also think the suburbs within the seat of Bulimba on the southern side of the Brisbane River (places like Morningside and Norman Park) may also have more CALD minority voters similar to those in Drummoyne and along the southern Parramatta River waterfront.