Cronulla – NSW 2027

Speakman from what I could tell didn’t appear to be doing a terrible job rather than it appears federal counterparts are dragging him down? I’m curious to know why Labor are all the sudden so popular in NSW.

NSW is the swing state of Australian politics, and most of the overlapping state and federal seats tend to vote the same, save for some odd examples like Penrith.

It’s perfectly reasonable to suggest a coat-tails effect happening, especially considering both the Federal and NSW Coalitions started sliding in the polls at roughly the same time.

@SpaceFish Federal drag.

It’s what (briefly) put Jacinra Allan back above water.

@Scart yeah and as I said, state and federal seats in NSW rarely diverge.

Whereas in Queensland you get state Labor regularly holding areas they can only win in good years for them federally.

I don’t think he was that bad as leader but he lacked the ‘it factor’. During his presser today, he said federal factors tarnished the Liberal brand. Things took a turn after the federal election. The party insiders lost confidence and thought they could do better, perhaps with someone more presentable.

NSW is the bellwether state. No government has won power without NSW. Whoever wins the most seats in nsw usually forms govt. but as the late Graeme Richardson RIP said if Gladys had of remained premier they would not have been able to beat her. Chris mins is doing an effective enough job but I think they can prolly force him into a deeper minority at the next election. At this point I don’t see the liberals forming any sort of govt in 2027 unless they get really lucky and take enough seats off labor to force the regional independents into a coalition.

@CJ It’s currently the reverse in QLD (Leichhardt, Bonner, Forde and possibly Blair would be LNP held using state results)

Im pretty sure blair would be labor held

@ Scart
Nether Portal already calculated all 30 QLD Federal seats based on the state results just after the state election. Leichardt and Forde are LNP seats on state results but Bonner and Blair are Labor. Bonner is lower at 3.2% Labor while Blair is pretty much the same. However, Moreton Bay is where State Labor overperforms the most with Longman actually being a Labor state on state results 52.6% while Petrie is even stronger around 3.3% Labor. You can find it details in the 2025 thread for the QLD federal results. On state results the safest Labor seat is Rankin not Oxley.

Comparing 2023 NSW state results with the 2025 Federal results in NSW we see a trend where all Teal seats will be LNP held, Bennelong will be safe Liberal, Greenway more competative but Lindsay is actually a Labor seat while the Hunter seats are even stronger for Labor so there is a demographic difference however, OPV may explain some of that as well.

As for Mark Speakman, I agree that he just never really had that confidence as leader but that’s something he coulda worked on. Nevertheless he had a good run as leader, so I thank him for his service.

As a NSW resident, the NSW Liberals are actually in pretty good shape: have a lot of strong moderate MPs, appeared pretty united and have decent policy, and actually had very minimal factional infighting which is really impressive compared to the other state branches.

But the glaring issue in my opinion was Speakman. Nothing personal, he is a moderate and has spoken against positions the federal Liberals have taken (e.g. supported the Voice, against nuclear). But he was really uninspiring, didn’t appear to have a lot of charisma or the charm needed to capture voters like Chris Minns has been able to do. He was also incredibly low-profile, something that Minns also had the upper edge on. I almost feel in a way the leadership position he took was more of a cushy job rather than a genuine interest to serve, he never had a lot of high points, and he just felt average to me and a lot of other NSW voters.

I do wish Kellie Sloane the best, I do think she is definitely capable for the job, and I also hope she can keep principled moderate stances to help the Liberals to victory in 2027. It is achievable, and I feel she is absolutely qualified, and a breath of fresh air to the federal Liberals who seem to be shifting away from the centre.

Speakman said he would consider a shadow frontbench role and would recontest his seat in 2027.

I believe this will be the most affluent seat where ONP does well eventhough i expect a LIB retain. I wonder if Cronulla has more Low Contact Intergroup threat perception than other Anglo heavy parts of Sydney such as Northern Beaches which @Marh has mentioned before. Cronulla is the only beach in Sydney with a railway station unlike Melbourne which has plenty which good rail or Tram access (Port Melbourne/St Kilda). Cronulla is also really the only Publically accessible beach for the entire Sutherland Shire. In the Documentary Once upon a time in Punchbowl the rail access was mentioned as a factor. This brought a lot of working class residents including ethnic minorities to an areas that was quite insular and not much changed since mid 1970s. To get from SW Sydney to Shire you dont even need to cross the City let alone the Harbour. This might have meant that Shire residents got a High Exposure to diversity but no meaningful connection which may have triggered Nationalism and support for One Nation. Also unlike the Northern Beaches if a sharks fan in this electorate goes to see an NRL the train ride takes them through highly diverse areas like Arncliffe, Wolli Creek etc

@Nimalan, I think The Shire tends to attract more well-off nationalist to there but the area is still more of a Traditional Conservative rather than a full on reactionary one. I think the working class whites that used to live in working class CALD Area but resented the CALD Community tends to move on to either middle class or retiree while heavily nationalist areas but still have strong transport links to capital cities such as Camden in Sydney or Essex in the UK.

@ Marh
Agree the Shire is more affluent and probably does not have as much grievance. Perhaps Whites who used to live in in CALD areas Cumberland council etc now live in Camden or Penrith LGA. The thing is the latter two councils have new housing estates so they are diverifying some what for example Oran Park and Jordan Springs have diversity. I believe by 2026 Census i believe Penrith and Camden LGAs will be more diverse than Hunters Hill, Inner West and Waverley LGAs. Interestingly if you exclude the Peri-Urban councils of Wollondilly, Hawkesbury and Blue Mountains and focus on urbanised ones the Shire is the least diverse followed by Northern Beaches both of these Coastal areas have high property values and no new housing estates so are unlikely to diverisfy much and pretty much same as 30 years ago. The Shire does feel more nationalist than the Northern Beaches IMHO