Balmain – NSW 2027

I am curious to see what expectations are here.

a (somewhat) popular Labor government would see this a pickup. Seems too marginal for The Greens ATM – I am aware the local MP is very hyper local which would be a big plus for them.

If Libs decide to direct preferences to Labor rather than open ticket Labor could easily pick this seat up.

Libs will just vote 1 liberal.

All else being equal I’d expect Kobi Shetty to get an incumbency bounce which should somewhat shield her against any state-wide popularity for Labor. Looking at overlapping federal results, the Greens primary seems to have held up in the area so I don’t think there’s been a migration of Greens voters out of the electorate as I think there was from the federal seats they lost.

The Liberal HTV could very well be a factor but I personally doubt they’d bother making a recommendation. We’ll see closer to the actual election if there’s any reason they might. Most Liberal voters will indeed just vote 1 no matter what, but a portion of them would follow a HTV if it recommended sending preferences to Labor, which could make a difference when combined with other factors.

It might be tempting to say that the Greens are at-risk given demographic changes and the federal election results. At the federal election, some of Labor’s best results and biggest swings in Sydney/Grayndler were north of Victoria Road – Balmain, Birchgrove, Rozelle. Rising rents and property prices have priced out many young professionals, renters and students – key demographics in the Greens’ support base.

A wild card factor is the local NIMBY (or YIMBY) politics. There have been proposals and talk of rezoning and building of apartments along Parramatta Road as well as in various Inner West Council suburbs (which are outside this electorate). Darcy Byrne, the Labor mayor, and other Labor councillors are quite YIMBY. The development proposals may make or break Labor’s chances.

Votante, your comment has me wondering whether Kobi Shetty would be like Amy McMahon, the Greens MP for South Brisbane who lost recontesting her seat in 2024. Amy McMahon suffered a small primary vote swing against her, despite being a first term MP running for re-election.

Although for South Brisbane, the Greens still led on primary votes and if that contest was conducted under OPV then they would have won instead of Labor.

I’m a long term local in this seat. Shetty seems almost allergic to delivering things and focuses relentlessly on protests, posters and petitions. Also on the wrong side of the housing crises by chasing every NIMBY agenda out there. This only hurts Greens supporters (especially renters) who are being priced out of the area. I would expect a big local NIMBY vs YIMBY campaign at the next state election. Shetty’s on the wrong side of that.

Agree Socrates, the Greens in recent elections have seemed to stagnate and even gone backwards due to their declining support in the affluent, teal friendly seats. This is probably due to their ‘activist’ image which turns off the more well-educated professionals who supported the party when it was more centrist in nature.

Now it appears these voters have switched to backing Labor and/or teal independents instead who still support their causes in relation to climate change and other social issues but without the activist hype.

Yoh not to mention that only a handful of votes between labor and liberals making the 2pp against her if the liberals had of made the 2pp McMahon would have won. Also McMahon only won the seat because the lnp preferences the greens in order to get rid of Trad. That seemed to be the main reason behind her election in the first place. In nsw however its opv. I think if she survives she would survive in 2031.

There was only a few points in it primary vote wise last time (Lab 37 Grn 40). Given recent Council and Federal results it’s not hard to see that reversing. The Labor controlled council and the Minns government are also keeping focus on housing and service delivery. Local greens get obsessed by peripheral issues such council boycotts of Israel. Which has nothing to do with roads, rates, rubbish and housing (core council responsibility). Shetty was part of that while on council and we haven’t forgotten.
But having said that it depends on who Labor puts up. I would expect Philippa Scott, 2023 candidate no current councillor to have another run.

I agree that the Greens’ over-activism on non-core issues could be a detriment. The Greens primary vote was steadily rising in gentrifying, inner-city electorates throughout the 2000s and 2010s. It has stalled at recent elections. Ultimately, voters value service delivery.

@Yoh An, John, the QLD Greens losing South Brisbane was due to CPV and the LNP directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens. The decline in Greens primary votes also helped Labor win it.

Yes agreed. But the lnp only installed her in the first place to get rid of Trad. That was a tactical thing. They then reversed once she was gone.