ALP 18.6%
Incumbent MP
Anna Watson, since 2011.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Illawarra. Shellharbour includes parts of the City of Shellharbour and the City of Wollongong. It includes the Shellharbour CBD as well as Flinders, Blackbutt, Oak Flats, Mount Warrigal, Shell Cove, Warilla and Dapto.
Redistribution
Shellharbour contracted at its northern edge, losing Brownsville and Kanahooka to Wollongong and Dombarton and Kembla Grange to Keira. These changes increased the Labor margin from 18.3% to 18.6%.
History
The electoral district of Shellharbour was created prior to the 2007 election. The redistribution had abolished the seat of Illawarra, which included a large part of the current seat of Shellharbour. Both the former Illawarra and the current Shellharbour have always elected ALP candidates.
The electoral district of Illawarra had existed in various forms since 1859. It was restored in 1927, when it was won by the ALP’s Andrew Lysaght Jr. He had previously won one of the seats in Wollondilly in 1925. He moved to the new seat of Bulli and became Attorney-General in the Lang government. Clashes with his rivals saw him resign from the ministry in 1931, and he died in office in 1933.
He was replaced in Illawarra in 1930 by Billy Davies, who had held other Illawarra-based seats since 1917. He served in both Lang governments in 1927 and 1930-32. In 1941 he moved to the new seat of Wollongong-Kembla, and in 1949 moved to the federal seat of Cunningham. He held that seat until his death in 1956.
The ALP’s Howard Fowles won Illawarra in 1941, and held it until his retirement in 1968. Illawarra was abolished in 1968, when the neighbouring seat of Wollongong-Kembla was split into two districts, named Wollongong and Kembla.
Kembla was won in 1968 by George Petersen, but in 1971 the seat was renamed Illawarra, and Petersen retained that seat. Petersen was expelled from the ALP in 1987, and ran in 1988 for his own Illawarra Workers Party.
Petersen was defeated by the ALP candidate Terry Rumble. He was re-elected in 1991 and 1995, and retired in 1999.
Marianne Saliba won Illawarra in 1999. She held it until 2007, when she retired and Illawarra was replaced by Shellharbour. Shellharbour was won by Lylea McMahon.
McMahon stepped down in 2011, and Labor candidate Anna Watson won the seat. Watson was re-elected in 2015 and 2019.
Assessment
Shellharbour is normally a safe Labor seat but independent candidate Chris Homer won the directly elected mayoralty of Shellharbour in 2021, and could potentially be a threat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Anna Watson | Labor | 31,532 | 57.5 | +4.8 | 57.9 |
| Shane Bitschkat | Liberal | 14,924 | 27.2 | +1.5 | 26.9 |
| Jamie Dixon | Greens | 5,158 | 9.4 | +0.1 | 9.4 |
| Ken Davis | Sustainable Australia | 3,226 | 5.9 | +5.9 | 5.7 |
| Informal | 2,783 | 4.8 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Anna Watson | Labor | 34,435 | 68.3 | +1.3 | 68.6 |
| Shane Bitschkat | Liberal | 16,005 | 31.7 | -1.3 | 31.4 |
Booths in Shellharbour have been split between three main suburbs. The seat is split down the middle by Lake Illawarra, which also acts as the local government boundary. All those booths on the north side of this boundary have been grouped as “Dapto”. Those on the south side of the lake have been split between Warilla in the north and Shellharbour in the south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 63.5% in Shellharbour to 75.6% in Warilla.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote of 9.1% in Shellharboour and Warilla, and 11.3% in Dapto.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Shellharbour | 9.1 | 63.5 | 11,672 | 23.2 |
| Dapto | 11.3 | 71.1 | 8,478 | 16.8 |
| Warilla | 9.1 | 75.6 | 6,509 | 12.9 |
| Pre-poll | 8.2 | 68.7 | 17,248 | 34.3 |
| Other votes | 11.1 | 67.5 | 6,426 | 12.8 |
Election results in Shellharbour at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Very surprised to see no comments here.
Shellharbour could really be in play this election. The result in the recent Shellharbour Council elections show this seat could be lost.
If Chris Homer, Kellie Marsh or another high profile independent run here it should genuinely be considered unsafe for the ALP.
All the new developments in Shellharbour have seen a massive demographic shift away from safe Labor voters. Coupled with a general attitude as to “what has Watson actually done” and her drunk at Parliament and then driving allegations, see a decline in the ALPs overall strength.
Prediction: close Labor loss to a high profile independent.
Stew Rockdale I would agree a bit with your comment, although the 2007 election which featured another high profile independent still saw then Labor MP Lylea McMahon win the newly created seat by a wide 20%+ 2PP margin.
Also, local council elections only provide a rough guide to state or federal results. It depends on the overall ‘lean’ of the independents concerned and their background. If they are considered more center right and/or possibly ex Liberals, then they could make the seat competitive. Otherwise, they may not have much impact if they run.
Thanks for the replay Yoh An. I live in the area and it cannot be understated the impact the development has had on the demographics on the electorate. Shell Cove actually had a better TPP for the Liberals then the Kiama LGA did for Constance last election. Shell Cove is an example of the ‘new Shellharbour’ that is being created recently.
Kellie Marsh is known to be more right leaning. She managed to get about 66.6% of the primary vote for her ward in Shellharbour in the first round and 57% in the second re-do the had to do due to iVote with the former Mayor also deciding to contest that race. It is important to note her ward is almost entirely in the seat of Kiama.
Homer, not too sure what the perception is – my assessment is he’s pro-environment and more moderate leaning economically and socially. He did lead the Save Killalea movement. He managed to get a 52.6% primary in his ward (Shellharbour electorate) and 52.8% for the Mayoral race.
Overall the results were a shocker for Labor that normally dominates Shellharbour.
Also worth having a look at Stephen Jones’ primary vote collapsing in that same area by ranging 4-10% in the last federal election.
Not sure if there’s an appetite for Liberals on Shellharbour, but sensible and moderate independents – yes.
Chris Homer is running as an independent here.
Related article: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-10/shellharbour-election-announcement-chris-homer/101956886
@Stew seems you now have your answer. Could be a strong chance IND makes 2CP here with such a low LIB vote already.
Agree PO, Chris Homer with his fairly high profile and name recognition is likely to make the final 2CP count and Shellharbour as a whole will be a competitive contest (final margin likely <10% post-election). I think Labor are still favoured to retain the seat, given the overall statewide ALP swing and the fact that success in local council elections may not fully translate to support at other elections.
I wonder if there is anti-lockdown anger in Shellharbour and northern Kiama (electorate) that will will drive up the independent or minor party vote. Shellharbour LGA was locked down along with Metro Sydney in mid-2021.
It appears my wishes have come true regarding Mayor Chris Homer. I’ll be watching this seat with great interest.
May not be the cycle ALP loses Shellharbour, but it’s only a matter of time…
Anna Watson’s primary will plummet with Homer and a semi-decent Liberal running. 1 of the 2 ingredients are there already. It’s up to the Libs to field a good candidate now.
Agreed Assistant Minister. A 1% towards the Libs this election is possible with the right candidate – bucking the statewide trend. Credit to any Liberal candidate able to pull this off.
Homer has had a very low profile as Mayor. He has a solid base, but I can’t see him getting over Watson, he has no profile in Dapto at all
Agree with Illawarra Observer. Chris Homer is pretty overhyped and pretty unknown. His campaign is severely lacking any energy or momentum. There had been very little on that front.
He is completely unknown in Dapto which, along with Albion Park Rail, is where he’d need to pick up votes to have any chance of even getting anywhere above 10% of the vote.
Liberals not endorsing a candidate yet is also going to impact the result. Homer to win needs Liberal preferences and Liberal primary votes at the last federal election for Whitlam did not increase enough to be anywhere near enough to win.
Prediction: Labor retain with slight swing towards Labor.
Agreed Diamond. I’ve seen nothing on the ground of Homer or his supporters. He won council on a popular platform about something council didn’t control and which was against a liberal party policy. As for the Liberals, they will not win this seat while Dapto is in there. Their decision to scrap the south facing ramps on the M1 as part of the Albion Park bypass project certainly didn’t win them friends!
This seat wasn’t over quota. I don’t see any population decline, so why did these seat lose voters?
Most likely the population shifted and increased. After every 2 elections they redraw the boundaries
This has a pro liberal opv bonus of 3% maybe slightly less. Do we know % green to alp
And ajp.% to alp.?
Listed on nsw electoral comm site? If so.where?
I am a local. Anna Watson will flog it in now. Homer’s campaign now is really inept and clueless. No support – no funds. He only got about 150 likes on own Facebook? just observed him this morning while shopping getting criticised in Oak Flats shopping centre by locals over council’s refusal to do anything about dumped woolies etc trolleys. Hilarious! The big issues? He’s going to “turbocharge” everything – he must have smelt too much fuel when he was a young rev head? or swallowed too much salt water? his only possible chance was two-way contest like for the mayor. This field is packed. Liberals endorsing candidate was greeted with surprise as everybody thought that Homer had done a deal through lunching with Peter Poulos MLC for a clean run (all over Poulos’s Tweeter account). Poulos’s decline and fall was obviously bad luck. Homer doesn’t even have tweeter account? Watson has Dixon’s preferences. She is actually well like by local greens. Not sure what Libs will do but I expect Barnes and Davis will out poll Homer anyway as will Jamie Dixon. Will report back when I see “how to votes” or if anything dramatic changes. Eg like a shark attack because homer is promising to remove all shark nets from Illawarra?
@roger not necessarily if the other parties direct preferences toward him he could still win on preferences
The Greens choice to preference Labor over Chris Homer seems to go against their values, considering he was the leading advocate on the Save Killalea and has been very vocal about his opposition to wind turbines being installed along our coastlines, you’d think he would be the logical choice to preference
Anna was out at surf club yesterday morning, taking Homer on at his strongest part of the electorate…the beach. It’s fair to say that she was fighting against Killalea development before Mr Homer came along. And him standing next to mr Ward (who is quoted as supporting that development), as well as his wining and dining with development lobby groups, probably doesn’t help his cause with the Greens. His activity has been muted. There will be a swing away from Ms Watson – Ive talked to quite a few that will back Homer – but not enough to shift the seat.
Dan, why would the Greens preference someone fighting against renewable energy?
@Ben, if Homer can win Shellharbour on preferences, then the ALP could have won the 2011 election. If the Liberals could only just get Shellharbour below 10% in their landslide, Homer, who I am told has run a very low-profile campaign, will not win, even if other candidates direct their preferences to him. For him to win, he would need to win EVERY preference from EVERY non-ALP ballot – having no ballot exhaust, as well as force the ALP primary vote below 40% – that is a 17% swing away from Watson. This will be an ALP retain. Even if there is a swing against them, it will be retained by more than 10%.
@ wilson they dont always agree wth anyone on everything but thet usually back independants over the majors
As smiley said in the Kiama thread, the Greens always preference Labor….so guess this isn’t a surprise.
@Mark, Chris Homer isn’t against renewable energy, he’s just not keen on the installation of offshore wind turbines, just as the greens are also.
@wilson I meant ^
Dan, it may be the case that the local Greens are not supportive of offshore wind turbines, however I did a search and couldn’t find any record of this stance online. In fact, the only press release I found from them on the subject shows one of their local councillors to be supportive of offshore wind farms.
https://www.illawarragreens.org.au/greens_welcome_green_hydrogen_investment
I am not a local so I might not be clued in on their real feelings, but on the evidence in front of me, it seems like they’re pro-offshore wind, so I don’t know why they’d preference Homer who is against it.
Bon Brown opposes a specific wind project in Tasmania, and has used plenty of bad arguments to justify his position.
But the Greens are generally in favour of wind both on and offshore, especially while coal and gas are at large.
I think though ultimately it comes down to the fact Greens want the Libs out. They will preference a teal with a higher chance of beating Liberals, or someone clearly to the left of Labor. But they probably can’t trust Homer not to back Libs and want a clear Vote 1 Green 2 Labor message.
John, Wilson, Dan,Bajoc, Illawarra observed, stew Rockdale: as predicted Greens are preferencing Watson – actually they like her. No one is preferencing Homer except donkeys but Sustainable may actually finish ahead of him & keep donkeys. Why? because the more you see the less impressed you were. Inept campaign. Lucky to finish in top 5 out of 7? as Ken Howard would have said ‘put down the binoculars”
Ben, by the way thanks for the hard work on preference spreadsheet. So much work.
I did promise to report back if anything dramatic changes in Shellharbour. Fortunately it is not a real shark attack. But Gareth Ward has endorsed Mayor Chris Homer on his Facebook media site describing him as “A great choice for the State Seat for Shellharbour”. Does anyone know if any other candidate for any other Legislative Assembly seat in 2023 has been officially endorsed by an alleged rapist?
Still think Homer no chance Roger? I have only seen activity in southern part of the electorate and there he has finally made an effort and has support at the prepolls. Others it’s a muted campaign.
@roger yes there is a case before the court i believe this has been covered by the admin that we arent discusin the things here as we dont want to have the site subject to legal action. please dont refer to this in a negative light as yes he is accused but currently not convicted so i think its best we not insinuate anything
@ Illawarra Observer: No chance at all. Homer will now out poll Liberals as they are not distributing HTV at all. So he is getting some anti-labor support at pre-polls. Also a lot of outrage from Liberal voters, especially at Shell Cove pre-poll which is trending demographically Liberal, who saying openly that they are being treated poorly by the Liberal Party. He has great support from Ward/Marsh lumpen team in Albion park – pity it is not in electorate. His primary vote will be significantly less than Shane Bitschkat for Liberals in 2019.It will be recalled that Mr Bitschat did/does not even live in the electorate.
Thanks Roger. I’ve been watching the shell cove prepoll casually most days and just noticed a lot of homer activity.
@John, Wilson, Dan, Bajoc,:), Illawarra observed, stew Rockdale, Ben Raue:As predicted Anna Watson has flogged it in. Homer with only 22% primaries is sitting second. He did get his HTV out at all booths on the day. However it will only get uglier for Homer as all uncounted pre-polls are in heavy Labor area Dapto & Shellharbour City. His best pre poll Shell Cove has been counted & decisively lost. Barnes Liberal got 13.11% & did not campaign, hand out HTVs or do anything. No one can actually recall meeting Barnes & as her photo shows her as a stunner you would?? It is possible given the uncounted votes in Dapto (a Homer wasteland) Barnes might actually outpoll Homer running no campaign?
Interesting to note that Homer did best right up against the coast and once you got not even a kilometre in he was hammered. Some booths in Dapto were 90-10 TCP to Watson. And he thinks he should run again. Give me a break!