Port Stephens – NSW 2015

LIB 14.7%

Incumbent MP
Craig Baumann, since 2007.

Geography
Hunter. Port Stephens covers most of Port Stephens local government area and small parts of the City of Newcastle and Great Lakes local government area. The seat covers Mayfield, Raymond Terrace, Nelsons Bay, Shoal Bay, Hawks Nest and Tea Gardens. It covers the entire shore of Port Stephens itself.

Map of Port Stephens' 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Port Stephens’ 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Port Stephens previously covered a few suburbs at the northern edge of Newcastle, and these areas were lost to Newcastle. Port Stephens gained the westernmost part of Port Stephens council area from Maitland, and some changes were made to the seat’s northern boundary. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 12.4% to 14.7%.

History
Port Stephens has existed as a district since 1988. It was held by the ALP continuously from 1988 to 2007, when it was won by the Liberal Party.

The seat was won in 1988 by the ALP’s Bob Martin. He won the seat by only 90 votes, and the result was thrown out later in 1988. The court considered the handing out of government cheques to local community groups to be bribery. The ensuing by-election saw Martin win with 63% of the two-party vote.

Martin served as a minister in the Labor government from 1995 to 1999, when he retired.

Martin was succeeded by former Port Stephens mayor John Bartlett, running for the ALP. He was re-elected in 2003, and retired in 2007.

In 2007, the Liberal candidate, Port Stephens mayor Craig Baumann, defeated Labor candidate Jim Arneman by 68 votes. It was the closest result in the entire state. Baumann was comfortably re-elected in 2011.

Craig Baumann stepped aside from the Liberal Party in 2014 following allegations at ICAC that he had accepted donations from prohibited donors in 2007.

Candidates
Sitting independent MP Craig Baumann is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Port Stephens is one of those seats that will decide which party forms government. If Labor gains enough of a uniform swing to win Port Stephens, they will be close to forming government, and the Coalition will be in serious danger of losing their majority. Labor’s position in Port Stephens is made stronger due to the allegations made against Craig Baumann, which will hurt the Liberal Party in the area.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Craig Baumann Liberal 22,956 51.1 +8.6 52.8
Kate Washington Labor 12,781 28.5 -13.2 26.9
Liz Stephens Greens 4,062 9.0 +3.0 8.1
Paul Hennelly Fishing Party 3,002 6.7 +2.0 6.0
Julian Grayson Christian Democrats 1,083 2.4 -0.5 2.3
Christopher Stokes Family First 1,018 2.3 +2.3 1.9
Others 1.9

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Craig Baumann Liberal 24,561 62.4 +12.4 64.8
Kate Washington Labor 14,770 37.6 -12.4 35.2
Polling places in Port Stephens at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in green, North Shore in blue, Port Stephens in red, Raymond Terrace in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Port Stephens at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in green, North Shore in blue, Port Stephens in red, Raymond Terrace in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Port Stephens have been split into four parts. Polling places in the town of Raymond Terrace have been grouped together, as have those on the Port Stephens peninsula and on the north shore of Port Stephens. The remaining booths were grouped as “Central”.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 57.6% in Raymond Terrace to 68.5% on the North Shore.

Voter group LIB 2PP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Port Stephens 67.5 9.7 10,969 25.1
Central 62.1 7.4 10,474 23.9
Raymond Terrace 57.6 9.0 6,022 13.8
North Shore 68.5 5.3 3,292 7.5
Other votes 65.5 7.6 12,993 29.7
Two-party-preferred votes in Port Stephens at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Port Stephens at the 2011 NSW state election.

5 COMMENTS

  2. I tend to think this area is trending Liberal over the longer term, as it becomes less Hunter Valley workers and more retirees from the North Shore.

    Baumann’s scandals puts this close to in play, but I’d still tip a Lib hold.

  3. This result threw me despite Craig Baumann being ICAC’s. Definitiely thought it was stay in the blue column as I thought this was retiree heaven and the people here would vote for a donkey in a blue rosette.

    Turns out Ken Jordan was a really idiotic candidate choice by NSW Libs probably only second to Jaymes Diaz.

Comments are closed.