Manly – NSW 2015

LIB 32.4%

Incumbent MP
Mike Baird, since 2011.

Geography
Northern Sydney. Manly covers all of Manly Council and southeastern parts of Warringah Council. It covers the suburbs of Manly, Balgowlah, Seaforth, Queenscliff, Curl Curl and parts of Brookvale.

Redistribution
Minor changes were made to Manly’s border with Wakehurst, which had no impact on the seat’s margin.

History
The seat of Manly has existed since the 1927 election. It has been dominated by the Liberal Party for most of that period. The ALP held the seat for six years in the 1970s and 1980s, and independent MPs held Manly from 1991 to 2007.

The seat was first won in 1927 by Alfred Reid of the United Australia Party, he held the seat until 1945, joining the Liberal Party shortly before his death in 1945.

The 1945 Manly by-election was won by Liberal candidate Douglas Darby. He was at the right-wing end of the Liberal Party, and sat as an independent Liberal from 1962 to 1968. He held the seat as a Liberal from 1968 to 1978, when he retired.

The 1978 election was a landslide for the Labor Party, and Manly was won by the ALP’s Alan Stewart. He was re-elected in 1981, but lost in 1984 to Liberal candidate David Hay.

Hay was re-elected in 1988, and became a minister in the Greiner Coalition government.

In 1991, Hay was challenged by independent Manly councillor Peter Macdonald, who won the seat.

Macdonald was re-elected in 1995, and stepped down in 1999. He was succeeded by David Barr, another independent who had been elected to Manly Council on Macdonald’s independent ticket. Macdonald later won election as Mayor of Manly in 2004, serving one term until he was defeated in 2008.

Barr served two terms as the independent Member for Manly. In 2007, he was defeated by Liberal candidate Mike Baird.

The son of former state minister and federal MP Bruce Baird, Baird won a fierce preselection against Michael Darby, son of former Manly MP Douglas Darby.

Baird was promoted to serve as Shadow Treasurer in 2008, and became Treasurer when the Coalition won power in 2011.

When Barry O’Farrell resigned as Premier in April 2014, Baird was elected Liberal leader and Premier.

Candidates

• Mike Baird (Liberal)
• Clara Williams Roldan (Greens)
• Jennifer Jary (Labor)
• Rod Jamieson (No Land Tax)
• Annie Wright (Christian Democratic Party)

Assessment
Manly is a safe Liberal seat in most circumstances, barring the presence of a strong independent candidate. Mike Baird should be able to safely retain the seat for the foreseeable future.

2011 election result

2011 two-candidate-preferred result

2011 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Booths in Manly have been split into three parts based on three major suburbs: Balgowlah in the east, Harbord in the north and Manly in the south-east.

The Liberal Party won a large majority of the primary vote in all three areas, ranging from 66% in Manly to 75% in Balgowlah.

The Greens came second, with a vote ranging from 15.7% in Balgowlah to 22.2% in Manly.

Labor came third, with a vote ranging from 8.5% in Balgowlah to 12.4% in Harbord.