Council margin – LNP 0.7% vs GRN
Mayoral margin – LNP 6.1%
Incumbent councillor
Clare Jenkinson, since 2023. Jenkinson was appointed to replace Peter Matic as councillor for Paddington in June 2023.
Geography
Inner west of Brisbane. Paddington covers the suburbs of Kelvin Grove, Auchenflower, Milton and Paddington immediately to the west of the Brisbane CBD.
History
Paddington ward was created in 2016 as a successor to Toowong ward.
The Toowong ward was created in 1994 as a merger of Liberal-held Taringa ward and Labor-held Paddington ward, and was won in 1994 by new Liberal councillor Judy Magub.
Magub was re-elected in 1997, 2000 and 2004, and retired in 2007. In the lead-up to the 2008 election, the Liberal margin in Toowong was cut from 12.7% to 1.8%.
Liberal councillor Peter Matic was appointed to the casual vacancy, and was re-elected in 2008 with a 10% swing.
In 2012, Matic was elected to a second full term with a slim 0.3% swing. He currently serves as Chairman of the Public and Active Transport Committee.
Matic was re-elected to represent the renamed Paddington ward in 2016 with a margin of 6% against the Greens. He won another term in 2020, but just by a 0.7% margin.
Matic retired in 2023, with the LNP’s Clare Jenkinson filling his vacancy.
- Seal Chong Wah (Greens)
- Clare Jenkinson (Liberal National)
- Sún Etheridge (Labor)
Assessment
The Greens have a strong chance to pick up this ward which they narrowly lost in 2020, with the sitting councillor retiring after 17 years.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Matic | Liberal National | 10,629 | 45.5 | -3.1 |
| Donna Burns | Greens | 8,984 | 38.4 | +11.5 |
| Jeff Eelkema | Labor | 3,775 | 16.1 | -8.4 |
| Informal | 347 | 1.5 |
2020 council two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Matic | Liberal National | 11,064 | 50.7 | -5.1 |
| Donna Burns | Greens | 10,753 | 49.3 | +5.1 |
| Exhausted | 1,571 | 6.7 |
2020 mayoral result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 9,153 | 44.8 | -6.1 |
| Kath Angus | Greens | 5,903 | 28.9 | +9.5 |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 4,561 | 22.3 | -4.2 |
| Karagh-Mae Kelly | Animal Justice | 472 | 2.3 | +2.3 |
| Jeff Hodges | Motorists Party | 111 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Frank Jordan | Independent | 83 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| John Dobinson | Independent | 57 | 0.3 | +0.3 |
| Ben Gorringe | Independent | 48 | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| Jarrod Wirth | Independent | 33 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| Informal | 363 | 1.8 |
2020 mayoral two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 9,777 | 56.1 | -2.6 |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 7,649 | 43.9 | +2.6 |
| Exhausted | 2,995 | 14.7 |
Booths in Paddington have been divided into three parts: north-east, north-west and south.
The Liberal National Party narrowly won the two-candidate-preferred vote in the south and north-west, and also won a sizeable majority on the postal vote.
The Greens won a comfortable victory in the north-east, and also won the pre-poll vote.
| Voter group | ALP prim council | LNP 2CP council | LNP 2PP mayoral | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 14.2 | 50.2 | 58.7 | 2,915 | 12.5 |
| North-East | 19.4 | 43.4 | 47.4 | 2,479 | 10.6 |
| North-West | 12.8 | 50.3 | 60.1 | 1,915 | 8.2 |
| Other votes | 16.8 | 50.2 | 43.1 | 7,115 | 30.4 |
| Postal | 14.5 | 56.0 | 63.4 | 5,684 | 24.3 |
| Pre-poll | 18.9 | 49.0 | 51.8 | 3,280 | 14.0 |
Council election results in Paddington at the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal National Party vs Greens) and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, the Greens and Labor.
Mayoral election results in Paddington at the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, the Greens and Labor.
What were the notional TPP margins for TCP contests in 2020 (i.e LNP v GRN and LNP v IND)?
We don’t have that data.
This will be tough to hold onto but its not going to be a lay down misere for the Greens.
BJA, while nothing is guaranteed, I don’t know if there’s ever been a seat anywhere that was more likely to fall to the Greens than this one in this election. Very thin margin, long-term incumbent retiring, and the Greens have announced their candidate nine months out and presumably started campaigning already.
While federal voting can be different to council voting, it’s worth noting that in 2022, the booths in Auchenflower, Bardon, Kelvin Grove, Milton, Paddington and Petrie Terrace all had a Greens plurality on the primary vote and a huge 2CP victory for the Greens against the LNP.
So on that basis, I’m confident of a Greens victory here.
Like you couldn’t even really gerrymander a much better ward for the Greens, at least out of the north-western suburbs. I don’t see any plausible scenario where the Libs retain it. Pete Matic obviously realises it.
Agree furtive and Wilson, as an open seat it should be highly competitive.
Also with bcc more like a state government there could be some penalty against the incumbent lnp administration due to their extended time in office (10+ consecutive years)
It will be very interesting to see the size of the swing in this seat. A large Greens swing would be rather ominous for Labor in the overlapping state seat of Cooper that they hold, and they’d likely try to sandbag Cooper as a result. A small swing or a surprise Coalition victory would be a blow to the Greens’ momentum and probably make Labor the favourites to retain Cooper.
In terms of broader narratives, it’s hard to tell how much more Greens swing there’s available to get. But at a starting 2CP margin of less than a percent it certainly doesn’t take much.
I think Labor should probably be favoured to retain Cooper regardless of the Paddington result. Jonty Bush is a first term MP on 34% of the 3CP. If she can match that, she’ll probably win.*
But if she were to lose 2% directly to the Greens, or 4-10% directly to the LNP, then Labor would drop to 3rd and the Greens would win.
* If you fix Labor on 34% of the 3CP they’ll win with a Greens result anywhere between 20% and 43%, assuming compulsory preferencing and the typical preference splits.
AlexJ, that’s an interesting point, but I’d like to note that Julian Simmons was a first term MP on 52% of the 3CP vote, yet he still lost at the next election.
In an election where the electorate may be turning against Labor but many in inner Brisbane can’t abide the LNP, a 2% Labor to Greens swing is very possible. As I’ve said in the comments for Cooper, Bush knows how vulnerable she is, that’s one reason why she’s publicly come out against her party’s stance on youth crime, which may play well in the outer suburbs but won’t in this area.
Sún Etheridge, a Queensland Nurses and Midwives Union worker and former Masterchef contestant, has won Labor preselection.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-05/labor-brisbane-mayoral-candidate-lawyer-tracey-price/102693176
Peter Matic has resigned and Clare Jenkinson is the new Liberal councillor. If recent trends continue, interested locals will be able to find both her and Seal Chong Wah at the Kelvin Grove markets on Saturday mornings.
The ward page for Paddington says “updated August 21st” so I guess this is a pretty recent development. I believe we’re at about 5 pre-election replacements now.
Alex J, in addition to Peter Matic’s resignation I heard David McLachlan (Hamilton Ward councillor) also resigned early and his replacement is a female (Julia Dixon).
I guess it does give the LNP some benefit by having incumbents for these wards, rather than them being open seats.
In addition to those two LNP appointments, there is Trina Massey (who succeeded Jonathan Sririnigathan) in The Gabba and Sara Whitmee (succeeding Peter Cumming) in Wynnum Manly. That makes the council’s gender balance closer to 50% with four new women succeeding male councillors.
Maybe not a huge surprise but I’ve been hearing that the LNP are barely even staffing booths in Paddington and being vastly outnumbered by Greens volunteers. Safe to say they consider this one a very lost cause.
I get the feeling the Greens have gone overkill on this ward. It’s not a total waste because there are mayoral votes to win even if they’re safe in the ward vote, but I wonder if their volunteers could have been better deployed in a more speculative seat like Enoggera or Holland Park.
Not sure what’s the situation like in Holland Park or Enoggera but hearing that in parts of Coorparoo there are 4-5 Green volunteers for every 1 volunteer from LNP and Labor. it remains to be seen how much of that translates into actual votes.
Big lunch queues in Paddington, lots of greens flyers in hands.
ABC have uncalled Paddington for the Greens due to postals coming in heavy for the LNP.
It still looks favourable for the Greens but it’s very close and will depend on whether Labor preference flows hold up.
If Peter Matic didn’t resign, the incumbency advantage probably would have sealed the deal for an LNP hold here.
ABC have called it again for the Greens.