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The 2PP swings to Labor at the last two elections were over double the nationwide swings – 7.9% in 2022 and 6.7% in 2025 – both were more than double the nationwide swings. A combined swing of 14.6% to Labor is surely a product of suburban sprawl and demographic changes. I can’t think of a seat (outside WA) that has swung that much over two elections.
At the 2013 election, the 2PP margin reached 22.1% – the highest of any Liberal seat. Redistributions and suburban sprawl reduced the semi-rural parts. There’s lots of first home buyers and middle to high-income, white-collar professionals.