ALP 2.2%
Incumbent MP
Gordon Reid, since 2022.
Geography
Robertson covers the southern half of the Central Coast local government area. It covers the suburbs of Wamberal, Matcham, Holgate and Mt Elliot. Major centres in the electorate include Gosford, Erina, Terrigal, Woy Woy and Umina.
Redistribution
Robertson expanded slightly in the sparsely-populated north-west of the electorate, taking in the remainder of Kulnura from Dobell. This change slightly reduced the Labor margin from 2.3% to 2.2%.
History
Robertson was first created in 1900 for the first federal election in 1901. The seat originally was an inland seat particularly covering Dubbo and Wellington and the Upper Hunter. It quickly moved towards the Central Coast, which it first covered in 1913. The seat has been won by the party of government continuously since 1983.
The seat continued to shift and at one point also covered the coast to the north of Newcastle, before firmly settling on the Central Coast in 1974. The 1984 redistribution saw the seat take its current shape covering the southern half of the Central Coast.
For most of its history the seat was dominated by conservative MPs before mostly supporting the ALP over the last forty years. The seat was held by Henry Willis who won it for the Free Trade Party and maintained his hold until he lost it in 1910 to William Johnson of the ALP. Johnson only managed to hold the seat for one term, and was the only Labor member for the seat before the Second World War. He was succeeded by William Fleming of the Liberals, who proceeded to represent the Nationalists and joined the newly-formed Country Party in 1921. He ran for the seat as a Country Party candidate in 1922 and came third, with Sydney Gardner of the Nationalist Party holding the seat. Gardner maintained the seat until 1940, joining the United Australia Party in 1931.
At the 1940 election Gardner was one of two UAP candidates to run in Robertson, and came third on primary votes, and the other UAP candidate, Eric Spooner, won the seat on Gardner’s preferences in a close race with the ALP. Thomas Williams of the ALP won the seat in 1943 and held it until 1949, when he was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Roger Dean. Dean held the seat until he resigned in 1964 to become Administrator of the Northern Territory. His successor, William Bridges-Maxwell, won a by-election and was reelected in 1966 before being defeated by the ALP’s Barry Cohen in 1969.
Cohen held the seat for 21 years, serving as a minister from 1983 to 1987 in the Hawke government before retiring in 1990. He was succeeded by Frank Walker, who had been a minister in the state government before losing his seat in the 1988 state election. Walker served as a minister in the second Keating government from 1993 to 1996 before losing his seat to Jim Lloyd of the Liberal Party.
Lloyd held the seat for the entire length of the Howard government. He saw off Belinda Neal in 1998, when she resigned from the Senate to run for the seat. Lloyd was a minister from July 2004 until he lost his seat to Neal at the 2007 election. The seat was the ALP’s most marginal victory at the 2007 election, with Neal winning by 184 votes.
Belinda Neal was a controversial MP, and she lost preselection in 2010 to Deb O’Neill. O’Neill retained the seat for the ALP with an increased margin in 2010, but lost in 2013 to Liberal candidate Lucy Wicks.
Wicks was re-elected in 2016 and 2019, but lost to Labor candidate Gordon Reid in 2022.
Assessment
Robertson is a very marginal seat. Reid’s position may be stronger than it appears as he should benefit from a new personal vote (and the absence of Wicks’ personal vote), but that is only factor.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Lucy Wicks | Liberal | 38,448 | 40.0 | -6.9 | 40.0 |
| Gordon Reid | Labor | 36,231 | 37.7 | +3.6 | 37.6 |
| Shelly McGrath | Greens | 9,642 | 10.0 | +2.1 | 10.0 |
| Billy O’Grady | One Nation | 3,679 | 3.8 | +3.8 | 3.8 |
| Barbara-Jane Murray | United Australia | 2,792 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 2.9 |
| Patrick Murphy | Animal Justice | 1,949 | 2.0 | -0.1 | 2.0 |
| Jeffrey Lawson | Indigenous – Aboriginal | 1,127 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.2 |
| Kate Mason | Informed Medical Options | 1,114 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.2 |
| Bentley Logan | Liberal Democrats | 736 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Paul Borthwick | Citizens Party | 272 | 0.3 | +0.3 | 0.3 |
| Alexandra Hafner | Federation Party | 220 | 0.2 | +0.2 | 0.2 |
| Others | 0.0 | ||||
| Informal | 6,274 | 6.1 | -1.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Gordon Reid | Labor | 50,277 | 52.3 | +6.5 | 52.2 |
| Lucy Wicks | Liberal | 45,933 | 47.7 | -6.5 | 47.8 |
Booths have been divided into four areas.
Most booths are in the eastern part of the seat near the coast, and these have been divided between the three main centres of Gosford, Erina and Woy Woy. The remainder of booths in the sparsely-populated west have been grouped together as “West”.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, with 56.9% in Gosford and 57.9% in Woy Woy. The Liberal Party won Erina much more narrowly with 50.4%, and comfortably won the less-populated west with 58.6%.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.3% in the west to 12.0% in Gosford.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Erina | 11.3 | 49.6 | 17,626 | 18.3 |
| Woy Woy | 10.6 | 57.9 | 13,879 | 14.4 |
| Gosford | 12.0 | 56.9 | 12,117 | 12.6 |
| West | 8.3 | 41.4 | 1,877 | 1.9 |
| Pre-poll | 8.7 | 51.8 | 36,712 | 38.1 |
| Other votes | 9.7 | 48.3 | 14,259 | 14.8 |
Election results in Robertson at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
This seat has gone with the government of the day sense 1983, if Labor lose here they’ll likely lose government.
@spacefish not necessarily it’s currently only labor’s 5th moth marginal seat so labor can lose this without losing govt. In a hung parliament where independents can side against the will 9f the of the electorate bellwethers often can. In 2010 it voted labor who only won govt because 2 conservative seats sides with labor who normally would have installed a coalition govt. Dutton could theoretically win the seat but not be in govt as the crossbench who are stacked against him May install a labor govt.
Bellwethers aren’t predictive.
Lucy Wicks is running again.
I’m of the feeling that Reid can end the bellwether, he seems to be best backbencher you can be, champing community issues lobbying a state Labor government hard, and making representations to state ministers instead of going through the usual back channels. What’s people’s thoughts?
LIberal gain here Kent. although im tipping a Liberal government so the bellwether to continue
I think this is a toss-up. Robertson apparently has the most stressed renters in Australia )https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-03/electorates-in-financial-stress-four-corners/104875102), which you’d think could flip it to the Liberals. However as @Australia’s Kent Davidson says, Gordon Reid seems to be proactive
@nick thanks for that link
there a few labor electorates that could be classed as vunerable on that list as well as a few seats in the safe zone so there could be amjor shift to the liberals in those seats. as well as the independent in Franklin and Greens in Macnamara an Wills. Seats like Lyons, Bruce, Macarthur, Werrwa, Robertson, Paterson, Rankinn (the treasures seat), Blair, Lilley, Pearce, Cowan and Swan.
Think Lucy Wicks has outstayed her welcome alp retain
Are the libs winning any seats mick?
@john – based on your comments the LNP seems to be winning something like 70-80% of seats up for grabs
Yes some but they won’t be the closest vote in 2022 and there will be some they expect are in the bag and find well the bag is empty. Look at Qld who predicted the alp to retain Bundaberg.
I suspect the mp for Bundaberg got some publicity when smiles flew there on a 12 minute plane ride to deliver his birthday cake.
Bazza I never said they would win those seats I said there would be a major shift. That means swings to them. Not necessarily winning the seats
But they will win at least the 10 I stated a few months ago
I think today’s Medicare announcement will help Labor a lot in outer suburbs like this, and especially here with a local GP as Labor’s member. I think Labor can hang on here.
Doubtful. People know when the government is trying to buy votes. They’ll take the stuff but won’t sell. I think labor is toast here.
@john I wouldn’t be that confident
It may hold off the libs in places like greenway Macquarie and Eden Monaro but the margin here is below the expected swing.
The expected swing now may well not be the expected swing at the time of the election. Hard to see the interest rate cut and medicare policy not having an impact.
The interest rate cut will be almost nothing as by the time it kicks in the election will be done. And besides one cut won’t make any bit of difference. That’s just like walking threw the desert and finding a few drops of water.
Robertson is higher income and lower mortgage stress than other outer suburbs or the areas further north into the Hunter, I also don’t think the medicare policy (matched by Dutton) or a measly interest rate cut does much for Labor’s prospects here
Agreed it has very low mortgage stress but extremely high rental stress 94.8% which I’m pretty sure is one of the highest if not the highest in the country. Interest rates aren’t gonna help with that and neither. Is Medicare policy
Haven’t heard much commentary on this seat. Any predictions or internal polling? And what are the vibes like on the ground?
I think a line ball result. Before their dive in the polls it’s was a certain liberal gain but NSW is probably gonna be about a 1% swing maybe 1.5.
This is must for both parties if they want to form government in their own right, this seat could easily go either way at the moment.
I live in Robertson, just a voter, no party membership. I think the sitting member has done enough to hold this seat even against a change of government. For the first time in my voting life I’m moving away from the 2 main parties. I don’t like or trust either of them.
A few weeks ago I would have had this as a Lib gain. I can now see Labor holding on – probably not by much – but holding on.
Interestingly, this seat hasn’t come up much in conversation on Tally Room, in the media or polling circles.
I think there is more or less an unspoken understanding that this seat goes where the government goes, and there’s been no sign to hint otherwise in the lead up to this election. That said, Gordon Reid appears to be a popular member and this seat has shown significant personal votes effects in past cycles. A Labor retain looks expected along with the government, but in future cycles the “bellwether” trend could eventually be bucked by a strong enough personal vote.
I reckon this is precisely the sort of area the fuel excise cut is targeted at, lots of commuters to Sydney.
Noting that bellwethers are not predictive but this does seem to be a more interesting seat than the lack of commentary would suggest. I haven’t spent a lot of time in this area but surely this is a good seat for Dutton’s fuel excise yet also a good seat for concerns around rents, as well as a decent number of alternative lifestyle people whose votes can never be adequately predicted. It sounds like the local member is fairly popular, and I would expect him to be able to ride out a NSW swing that would otherwise push this very close to – perhaps over – the line. (It’s a shame, incidentally, that this election has been primarily about how the parties can buy votes, as opposed to big ideas – except big ideas that don’t seem to be adequately costed. But I guess that’s the times we live in.)
I’m working my way down the list from least marginal to most. At this seat Labor hits the magic number in my calculations of 71 plus 6 sympathetic crossbenchers (Steggall, Haines, Spender, Daniel, Wilkie, Scamps), meaning they can govern with a Speaker and without relying on the Greens. Maybe they’ll get a couple more as I work through the seats with a <2% margin. In a non-partisan way, for lovers of smooth governance, at least we're getting somewhere. (Predicting a Senate of 39 left + 2 centre + 35 right.)
@sammy they only need 5 crossbenchers andhey wont deal with any more then hthey have to. as an extra person means an extra deal. Wilkie has clearly stated he will ot deal with anyone. however both Andrew Wilkie and Rebecca Sharkie have had informal discussions with both labor and the coalition about becoming speaker.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/crossbench-mps-in-talks-with-labor-coalition-over-speaker-s-job-20250415-p5lryt.html
I think the local member Gordon Reid’s popularity will be pivotal.
The 25c fuel excise cut for a year was mainly pitched at outer suburban and commuter belt families. The policy is likable for many but it doesn’t mean it’ll translate to votes.
I read that ending WFH turned people off, though Dutton has since reversed his policy. I’ve known people who work in both the public and private sectors in Sydney but live on the Central Coast. The right to WFH some days post-pandemic was a godsend. A lot of people moved to the Central Coast during or after the pandemic as it is more affordable and close to beaches.
@Paul. I think you have plenty of company in not voting for the major parties. Our current system almost rewards them for lacking the courage to act upon chronic, long-term issues if there are enough votes in the status quo not to do so.
@Sammy Steggall and Spender are expected to back the coalition, no?
It will be interesting to see if this seat keeps it’s bellwether status or loses it like Eden-Monaro & Lindsay did in 2016.
The last Liberal MP for MacArthur, Pat Farmer, appeared in a video endorsing Gordon Reid. Pat Farmer lives in the Central Coast I think. He was a campaigner for the voice to parliament.
im gonna say very marginal labor retain now
@spacefsh eden-monaro can be attributed to mike kellys personal vote i think and i think its should return to bellwether status
@Votante – Russell Matheson was the last Liberal MP for Macarthur.
Either way, quite strange to see a Liberal endorsing a Labor MP, has their been some disagreements between Farmer and the Liberals?
over the voice likely
James, yes, my mistake. Pat Farmer was the MP before the last Liberal MP. Methinks he has quit the party.
if he hasnt he wont be a member for long