ALP 2.6%
Incumbent MP
Meryl Swanson, since 2016.
Geography
Paterson lies on the north coast of New South Wales immediately to the north of Newcastle. The seat covers Maitland, Raymond Terrace and the Port Stephens peninsula.
Redistribution
Paterson contracted on its south-western edge, losing Kurri Kurri to Hunter. This change cut the Labor margin from 3.3% to 2.6%.
History
A seat called Paterson in the northeastern Hunter was first created in 1949 and won by Allen Fairhall of the Liberal Party, who served as a minister in the Menzies, Holt and Gorton governments before retirement in 1969. He was succeeded by Frank O’Keefe of the Country Party, who held the seat until 1984, when it was abolished in the redistribution.
The seat was recreated in 1993, when it was won by Labor’s Bob Horne. In 1996 he was defeated by Bob Baldwin of the Liberal Party. Over the next two elections, the ‘two Bobs’ successively defeated each other, with Horne winning in 1998 and Baldwin in 2001. Horne retired after his 2001 defeat and Baldwin was re-elected four times.
The boundaries of Paterson were redrawn significantly in 2016, pulling the seat further into Maitland and away from the Great Lakes region. This change increased Labor’s notional two-party-preferred vote by almost 10% and made the seat a notional Labor seat.
Baldwin retired in 2016, and was succeeded by Labor’s Meryl Swanson. Swanson was re-elected in 2019 and 2022.
Assessment
Paterson is a very marginal seat and a good result for the Liberal Party could see this seat flip.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Meryl Swanson | Labor | 46,725 | 40.7 | -0.4 | 40.1 |
| Brooke Vitnell | Liberal | 42,142 | 36.7 | +4.2 | 37.6 |
| Neil Turner | One Nation | 9,363 | 8.1 | -6.0 | 7.9 |
| Louise Ihlein | Greens | 8,677 | 7.6 | +0.7 | 7.7 |
| Jason Olbourne | United Australia | 4,474 | 3.9 | +0.3 | 3.8 |
| Angela Ketas | Informed Medical Options | 1,883 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 1.6 |
| Sonia Bailey | Liberal Democrats | 1,621 | 1.4 | +1.4 | 1.4 |
| Informal | 6,142 | 5.1 | -0.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Meryl Swanson | Labor | 61,247 | 53.3 | -1.7 | 52.6 |
| Brooke Vitnell | Liberal | 53,638 | 46.7 | +1.7 | 47.4 |
Booths have been divided into five parts. Polling places in the Port Stephens council area have been split between Raymond Terrace and Nelson Bay. Booths in the Newcastle council area and in the easternmost part of Maitland council area have been grouped as “central”, and the remainder of the Maitland area has been split between Maitland and East Maitland.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in four of the five areas. The ALP managed 52.7% in Raymond Terrace, the Liberal Party managed 51.6% in Nelson Bay. Labor polled between 58% and 59.7% in the other three areas at the western end of the electorate.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Raymond Terrace | 52.7 | 10,399 | 9.9 |
| Nelson Bay | 48.4 | 8,894 | 8.5 |
| Maitland | 59.7 | 8,753 | 8.3 |
| East Maitland | 58.0 | 8,488 | 8.1 |
| Central | 59.1 | 6,418 | 6.1 |
| Pre-poll | 50.1 | 48,157 | 45.9 |
| Other votes | 53.1 | 13,733 | 13.1 |
Election results in Paterson at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Liberal gain, due to the small margin and the political realignment that is going on with demographics like this.
Easily in fact I can’t see winning this seat again the growth on the north coast means it only gonna shed the rest of cessnock and Newcastle in time and move further north
easy liberal gain here id say at least a 5% swing
The seat is Port Stephens plus. Maitland with nothing nasty like the upper Hunter or Foster- Tuncurry.
I would expect a better vote for Labor looking it appears there was a big prepoll vote which Labor only just won.
I expect that component to improve.
Ben, it has become more interesting as the popularly elected conservative Mayor of Maitland is contesting as an Independent – obviously he will preference the Lib and vice versa so there is a big chance the Independent may squeeze through?
I would say the independent would fare as well as Chris Homer did in Shellharbour in the 2023 state election, albeit a lot better: will do quite well in his base (Maitland/Shellharbour) but absolutely flunk out around the other part of this electorate (Port Stephens/Dapto). Just my thoughts, but we’ll wait and see of course.
Astute observation @James. The sheer size of these peri-regional seats makes it very difficult for these independents with profile in a suburb or locality to be attractive choices to those outside that sphere or niche that they exist within. Antcliff is a highly likely win here in my opinion. This part of the world is the exact sort of voter that the Dutton campaign appears to be targeting. I also don’t observe skulduggery here. Moderate Heads have poked up here, as have Conservative Heads. A breath of fresh air!
Reckon Dutton’s comments about the Hunter and coal/nuclear pretty severely hurt the libs’ chances here.
Doubtful the Hunter barring Newcastle is trending towards the coalition I wouldn’t be surprised if the libs control all but Newcastle in the near future maybe 2028.
A greens Labor teal minority govt is only gonna push the Hunter further towards the coalition
As in Hunter, the YouGov/AMC seat poll has quite a low primary for the ALP here, 31 vs 26 Lib. Ind 16, ONP 14, Greens 11.5.
Is the Independent polling 16% Phillip Penfold (Maitland Mayor)? Gosh that is a massive PV for him.
On that polling I’d say the Liberals have a good chance of winning on a good preference flow from him and ONP.
I think energy policy has become quite crucial in these parts, and both Labor and the Coalition haven’t positioned themselves all that well to this area. A big PHON vote and the Maitland Mayor guy doing well quite possibly will deliver the death blow to Labor though, that funny exit poll suggested similar to what these dodgy little YouGov polls are saying
Have we got a HTV for Penfold? If his prefs flow to ON they could possibly get up over the libs and win. Also, Penfold’s website looks quite amateurish, which as Ben said in one of the pods recently is a good indication of how seriously to take a run.
No chance for onp libs and labor should make it to the 2pp e easily.
Seat poll in neighbouring Hunter has ON significantly above ON on primaries, probably take with a grain of salt but still I think in this area they’ll be strongly competitive. As the wheels have fallen off the liberal campaign, they’ve gone up significantly in nationwide polls.
Above Nats*
One Nation is str o my due to a good candidate no way they get over the libs here. The libs campaign has recovered the election will be close and a seat by seat battle
Has it? The polls haven’t shown any narrowing. Also, I think like 2 million people have already voted, so they’re running out of time.
Peter Dutton seems to have returned back to the culture wars and anti-immigration platform in the past few days. This might win back some of the primary vote from ON