Parramatta – Australia 2025

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19 COMMENTS

  1. if they had of gone with the m2 boundary instead of bleeding over into blacktown and cumberland this would have been an easy win for the liberals

  2. I sense Andrew Charlton will get a sophomore surge following some controversies about a captain’s pick and parachuting last election.

  3. Charlton wouldnt know what CoL means hes got about 6 mansions across the north shore of sydney i think. either way hes not doing it tough. I think this will be <1% towards Labor but the Liberals may be able to snag it.

  4. @mick not true some politicians have a mortgage just like everyone else and aren’t buying $12m properties and $2m sub penthouses on the riverfront.

  5. Awe slightly less than 100k per yr
    Politicians base salary $233k pa with no add ons
    Office holders pm speaker m8ninisters get at least double the base

  6. Andrew Charlton,competent though he is(in contradistinction to a lot of other ALP members) doesn’t strike me as a person who would have a personal vote.
    The reference to a sophomore surge I think is misleading.While it can exist,it is of little assistance when the government is on the nose as the polls indicate.
    I think Charlton needs to be in a safer seat.He should have been in the ministry,but isn’t.

  7. Has mp built some personal vote?
    He seems a different proposition to
    KKK.
    There was a slight swing against Labor here in 2022.
    This is still centred on the greater Parramatta.
    Alp retain

  8. Sophomore surge can still be important when a party is suffering a swing – it’s about doing relatively better than the party’s general swing. So if the ALP is suffering a 4% swing, maybe you only suffer a 2% swing and save your seat.

    I don’t think Charlton will have a huge personal vote but he’ll have some.

  9. I agree that Andrew Charlton should have some portfolio at least.

    The swing to Labor in 2022 was muted following the departure of long-term member Julie Owens plus the controversy and lateness of his preselection and parachuting. The electorate might have warmed up to him since then.

  10. @sabena the problem is there are no safe seats available most if not all their safe sydney seats are currently occupied.

    @mick i say 50/50 here for charlton if he retains it will be under 1% margin.

    @votante im sure the people of parramatta are more concerned with CoL something Charlton will know nothing about

  11. As a Parramatta local, it seems like Charlton himself is popular but the Albanese government is on the nose badly. Going to be a fascinating match-up between the Westminster and presidential systems – if one votes as is intended for an MP to represent your area’s concerns, think Charlton wins comfortably enough, but if one’s vote is anti-Albanese, then I think Parramatta could fall to the Coalition. I think John is right – Charlton 50/50, probably retains but by a handful of votes.

  12. @H@wke thanks for that its good to get opinion from the seat in question. The 2022 2pp swing was only 1.07% in a year when labor swept to power and the boundaries have become abit more favourable to the Libs in the redistribution. the CoL crisis is appparent in a seat ike parramatta and combine that with the anti-albo swing does anyone know what the cultural and ethnic background breakdown of this seat is? or where to find it? If Duttons making Majority he’ll likely need Parramatta.

  13. Ben,
    I think the problem with what you have said is that the statewide swing against Labor may be more than 4%. In those circumstances, you can do better than the statewide swing, but still lose.Given the ominous signs,3.7% is not looking enough.

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