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if they had of gone with the m2 boundary instead of bleeding over into blacktown and cumberland this would have been an easy win for the liberals
I sense Andrew Charlton will get a sophomore surge following some controversies about a captain’s pick and parachuting last election.
I think he may hold but on reduced margin as the CoL hurts and the liberals revival in nsw
Charlton wouldnt know what CoL means hes got about 6 mansions across the north shore of sydney i think. either way hes not doing it tough. I think this will be <1% towards Labor but the Liberals may be able to snag it.
This area does not have enough liberal areas in it to.flip
@ John
Very few federal politicians are doing.it.tough.
@mick not true some politicians have a mortgage just like everyone else and aren’t buying $12m properties and $2m sub penthouses on the riverfront.
@john…. sure some mp s are more wealthy than others.But I stand by my point they are not doing it tough
Awe slightly less than 100k per yr
Politicians base salary $233k pa with no add ons
Office holders pm speaker m8ninisters get at least double the base
Andrew Charlton,competent though he is(in contradistinction to a lot of other ALP members) doesn’t strike me as a person who would have a personal vote.
The reference to a sophomore surge I think is misleading.While it can exist,it is of little assistance when the government is on the nose as the polls indicate.
I think Charlton needs to be in a safer seat.He should have been in the ministry,but isn’t.
Has mp built some personal vote?
He seems a different proposition to
KKK.
There was a slight swing against Labor here in 2022.
This is still centred on the greater Parramatta.
Alp retain
Sophomore surge can still be important when a party is suffering a swing – it’s about doing relatively better than the party’s general swing. So if the ALP is suffering a 4% swing, maybe you only suffer a 2% swing and save your seat.
I don’t think Charlton will have a huge personal vote but he’ll have some.
I agree that Andrew Charlton should have some portfolio at least.
The swing to Labor in 2022 was muted following the departure of long-term member Julie Owens plus the controversy and lateness of his preselection and parachuting. The electorate might have warmed up to him since then.
@sabena the problem is there are no safe seats available most if not all their safe sydney seats are currently occupied.
@mick i say 50/50 here for charlton if he retains it will be under 1% margin.
@votante im sure the people of parramatta are more concerned with CoL something Charlton will know nothing about
As a Parramatta local, it seems like Charlton himself is popular but the Albanese government is on the nose badly. Going to be a fascinating match-up between the Westminster and presidential systems – if one votes as is intended for an MP to represent your area’s concerns, think Charlton wins comfortably enough, but if one’s vote is anti-Albanese, then I think Parramatta could fall to the Coalition. I think John is right – Charlton 50/50, probably retains but by a handful of votes.
@H@wke thanks for that its good to get opinion from the seat in question. The 2022 2pp swing was only 1.07% in a year when labor swept to power and the boundaries have become abit more favourable to the Libs in the redistribution. the CoL crisis is appparent in a seat ike parramatta and combine that with the anti-albo swing does anyone know what the cultural and ethnic background breakdown of this seat is? or where to find it? If Duttons making Majority he’ll likely need Parramatta.
Ben,
I think the problem with what you have said is that the statewide swing against Labor may be more than 4%. In those circumstances, you can do better than the statewide swing, but still lose.Given the ominous signs,3.7% is not looking enough.
@sabena we will have a better view once they start to release state breakdowns for the year
Suspect alp retain