IND 1.4% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Dai Le, since 2022.
Geography
South-western Sydney, in particular parts of Liverpool and Fairfield council areas. Fowler covers the Liverpool CBD and the suburbs of Cabramatta, Canley Vale, Lansvale, Bonnyrigg, Chipping Norton, Warwick Farm and Bossley Park.
Redistribution
Fowler slightly expanded to the north, taking in part of Wetherill Park from McMahon. On paper this reduced Le’s margin from 1.6% to 1.4%, although Le was not on the ballot in these new areas so she did not receive any votes there.
History
Fowler was first created for the 1984 election as part of the expansion of the size of the House of Representatives. It had always been a very safe Labor seat until 2022.
The seat was first won in 1984 by the ALP’s Ted Grace. Grace held the seat for fourteen years, retiring in 1998. He was succeeded by Julia Irwin, also from the ALP. Irwin held the seat until 2010.
In 2010, Irwin retired and he was replaced as Labor candidate by Chris Hayes. Hayes had held the neighbouring seat of Werriwa for five years, but had been forced to change seats to make room for Laurie Ferguson, whose seat had effectively been abolished. Hayes had been re-elected in Fowler three times.
Hayes retired in 2022, and the ALP ended up preselecting former premier and sitting senator Kristina Keneally. Keneally was set to lose her Senate seat and was seen as a leading figure in the party. Hayes had instead supported Tu Le, but the party chose Keneally. Keneally ended up going on to lose to Fairfield deputy mayor Dai Le, running as an independent.
Assessment
Dai Le is an incumbent MP and history suggests she is likely to strengthen her hold on this seat. Labor has now preselected the candidate they turned down in 2022, but this might be too little too late.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kristina Keneally | Labor | 30,973 | 36.1 | -18.5 | 36.6 |
| Dai Le | Independent | 25,346 | 29.5 | +29.5 | 28.3 |
| Courtney Nguyen | Liberal | 14,740 | 17.2 | -12.9 | 17.6 |
| Lela Panich | United Australia | 5,512 | 6.4 | +2.1 | 6.6 |
| Avery Howard | Greens | 4,191 | 4.9 | -0.7 | 4.9 |
| Tony Margos | One Nation | 3,047 | 3.5 | +3.6 | 3.6 |
| Peter Ronald Runge | Liberal Democrats | 2,094 | 2.4 | +2.4 | 2.4 |
| Informal | 10,098 | 10.5 | -2.6 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dai Le | Independent | 44,348 | 51.6 | 51.4 | |
| Kristina Keneally | Labor | 41,555 | 48.4 | 48.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kristina Keneally | Labor | 47,864 | 55.7 | -8.3 | 55.9 |
| Courtney Nguyen | Liberal | 38,039 | 44.3 | +8.3 | 44.1 |
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, south and west. The “south” area covers all those booths in the Liverpool council area, while those in Fairfield council area have been split into “central” and “west”.
Dai Le won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in the centre (52.1%) and west (51.6%) while Labor won 52.7% in the south.
The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.1% in the centre to 23.6% in the south.
| Voter group | LIB prim | IND 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 12.1 | 52.1 | 15,879 | 17.7 |
| West | 18.8 | 51.6 | 10,162 | 11.3 |
| South | 23.6 | 47.3 | 8,149 | 9.1 |
| Pre-poll | 16.9 | 49.8 | 42,961 | 48.0 |
| Other votes | 22.2 | 45.0 | 12,442 | 13.9 |
Election results in Fowler at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Labor vs Labor), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, independent candidate Dai Le and the Liberal Party.
@ Votante
I said this before as well i think the Southern and Eastern European communities are drifting away from Labor over time. I think there is a couple of reasons for this
1. Upward mobility across generations
2. Acceptance by Anglo Australia and virtually included in the cultural majority
3. Right wing nationalists like ONP not being hostile to them
4. While many have integrated they have largely retained social conservativism, religious identity
I think this trend can be seen in Scullin, McMahon and Gorton as well. Even the muted swing in Menzies maybe attributed in part to the Southern European community. I dont think this will make Fowler, Scullin and McMahon in play for the Liberals in future as the growth in non Europeans in areas with affordable housing will offset this trend.
this is another seat im disapointed in the boundaries.
Hughes should have extended into Chipping Norton to the georges river and werriwa taken in the rest of liverpool. fowler could have easily been a fairfield only seat
@ John yes I feel Liverpool CBD should be in werriwa
@nimalan yes and that fairfield tail in mcmahon should be in werriwa probably along victoria streeet
if not along redfern and widemere street
@Nimalan, there are some interesting points and perhaps this is more prevalent in Western Sydney where there is more low-density housing and even McMansions. There are lots of people of Southern European descent in Barton, Reid and Banks. The first two are now safe Labor seats.
West of the Cumberland Hwy, the most common origins of immigrants, other than South-East Asia, are Iraq and Syria as well as Italy. Although most residents are Christian, there is a dispersed Muslim population. Muslim Votes Matter advocated a 1. Greens 2. Dai Le vote. This might’ve also helped Dai Le score a swing.
@Votante – could be something in there. Greens and Labor both increased primary – but TCP swing was to Dai Le
Bazza, yes you’re right. The minor right-wing vote dropped as UAP was absent and LDP changed its name.
A bit under the radar with the Labor landslide but if Labor can’t win this seat with a strong candidate in Tu Le and a favourable environment like this election then this seat will be Dai Le’s until she retires.
I think it wil be Dai Le unless there is an incoming Labor governemnt so people vote 1 Labor to change the government.
@nimlan that effectively was what just happened. Labor couldn’t even buy this setback off dai le
Yeah it is hard to knock of sitting independents it is like how Coalition was not able to knock off Katter. However, the state Coalition won back Gippsland East in 2010 with an incoming Coalition government and in 2011 the State Coalition defeated rural indepedents in NSW. So it is possible but people have no reason to vote Dai Le out now especially when Labor is in Power. Labor may need to wait for the Coalition is in power and unpopular to get rid of Dai Le. If Tu Le was Labor candidiate in 2022 Labor would still hold the seat.
Nimalan katter almost lost in 2013 and he was being bet against in 2016 but the lnp withdrew and later died. The nats knocked off 3 “independents” in 2022 state election. Zoe Daniel lost despite a swing against the coalition and the libs got close in kooyong.. it was reported that zoedaniel outspend tim Wilson 3:1. So if she couldn’t beat him under favourable conditions she won’t regain the seat. The libs collapse likely cost them Curtin and possibly mackellar this this time. The reason itshardisbecause the opposing abortion party usually backs the ind in order to hurt their political opponents. Labor will have problems holding Bean, Fremantle and calwell for the same reason next time dai le is only going to solidfy her hold on Fowler. Th only way she loses is if she backs in a coalition minority govt. I’d expect her to poll 40%+ of the primary next time. Likewise gee won’t be getting dislodged from Calare
@ John
Yes Katter almost lost in 2013 but that was an incoming Coalition government election which is what i said just before. Andrew Gee maybe dislodged from Calare when there is an incoming Coalition government and people vote 1 Nats in Calare because they want to be sure there is no chance of Labor forming government. I agree if Dai Le backs a minority Coalition government and people in Fowler want to vote out the Coalition government they will vote Labor.
@nimlan but he was facing a loss in 2016 despite the problem the lnp had as the 2013 candidate was favourite to win but she had to withdraw due to an aggressive brain tumour that later killed her. In regards to calare that’s debate and theoretical atm. Andrew wilkie didtn lose in 2022. Remember Labor didn’t win Ryan or Brisbane in 2022. And they actually lost a seat to the greens in Griffith. An d Fowler to daii le.and the libs lost indi to cathymcgown in 2013. Remember laborlost swan and cowan against the grain 2007
@ John
Do you think Dai Le backing a Coalition minority government is the only way Labor can regain the seat?