LIB 2.5% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Paul Fletcher, since 2009.
Geography
Northern Sydney. Bradfield covers the Ku-ring-gai council area and most of the Willoughby council area. Key suburbs include Wahroonga, St Ives, Pymble, Turramurra, Killara, Lindfield, Gordon, Roseville, Castle Cove, Chatswood, Willoughby and Artarmon.
Redistribution
Bradfield shifted south, taking in about one third of the abolished seat of North Sydney. Specifically Bradfield took in most of the Willoughby council area, including Artarmon, Castlecrag, Middle Cove, Naremburn, Northbridge and Willoughby. The suburb of Hornsby was moved from Bradfield to Berowra, so the electoral boundary now mostly follows the local government boundary between Hornsby and Ku-ring-gai. The seats of North Sydney and Bradfield both had a teal independent in the final two-candidate-preferred count, and the changes reduced the Liberal margin against those independents from 4.2% to 2.5%.
History
The seat was created for the 1949 election, and has always been held by the Liberal Party.
It was first won by former Prime Minister Billy Hughes in 1949. Hughes had been an MP since he won election to the NSW colonial parliament in 1894, and had then held the federal seats of West Sydney, Bendigo and North Sydney. He had originally served as a Labor prime minister before leaving the party over the issue of conscription and leading the new Nationalist party. He eventually ended up in Robert Menzies’ Liberal Party and was the last remaining member of the first federal Parliameent to hold a seat.
Hughes died in office in 1952, and the ensuing by-election was won by state Liberal MP Harry Turner.
Turner held the seat for the next twenty-two years, and never rose to a ministerial role during twenty years of Coalition government. He retired at the 1974 election, and was succeeded by David Connolly.
Connolly also held Bradfield for twenty-two years, and was expected to take on a ministerial role after the 1996 election, but lost preselection to Brendan Nelson, former president of the Australian Medical Association.
Nelson won Bradfield in 1996 and quickly rose through the ranks of the Liberal government, joining the cabinet following the 2001 election and serving first as Minister for Education and then Minister for Defence.
Following the defeat of the Howard government in 2007, Brendan Nelson was elected Leader of the Opposition, narrowly defeating Malcolm Turnbull in the party room. His leadership was troubled by low poll ratings and being undermined by Turnbull and his supporters, and Nelson lost a leadership spill in September 2008. Nelson resigned from Parliament in 2009, triggering a by-election in Bradfield.
The 2009 Bradfield by-election was held in December, and was a contest between the Liberal Party and the Greens, with the ALP declining to stand a candidate, along with a field of twenty other candidates, including nine candidates for the Christian Democratic Party. While the Greens substantially increased their vote, Liberal candidate Paul Fletcher comfortably retained the seat. Fletcher has been re-elected five times.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Paul Fletcher is not running for re-election.
Assessment
If the teal independents were to pick up an extra seat in 2025, Bradfield is a very clear frontrunner. The seat has taken in about a third of an abolished seat that has been represented by an independent for the last three years, and the previous form of Bradfield had a strong independent of a similar style and political ideology in 2022.
Nicolette Boele has been actively campaigning for Bradfield since her 2022 defeat. She will be a serious contender, but the particular circumstances that led to independents winning in northern Sydney in 2022 is not quite so present now.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Paul Fletcher | Liberal | 43,562 | 45.0 | -15.3 | 43.7 |
| Nicolette Boele | Independent | 20,198 | 20.9 | +20.9 | 22.9 |
| David Brigden | Labor | 16,902 | 17.5 | -3.7 | 17.7 |
| Martin Cousins | Greens | 8,960 | 9.3 | -4.4 | 8.6 |
| Janine Kitson | Independent | 3,018 | 3.1 | +3.1 | 2.4 |
| Rob Fletcher | United Australia | 2,496 | 2.6 | +0.7 | 2.3 |
| Michael Lowe | One Nation | 1,568 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 1.5 |
| Others | 1.0 | ||||
| Informal | 3,616 | 3.6 | -0.5 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Paul Fletcher | Liberal | 52,447 | 54.2 | 52.5 | |
| Nicolette Boele | Independent | 44,257 | 45.8 | 47.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Paul Fletcher | Liberal | 54,685 | 56.5 | -10.0 | 56.2 |
| David Gordon Brigden | Labor | 42,019 | 43.5 | +10.0 | 43.8 |
Booths have been divided into three parts. Polling places in the Ku-ring-gai council area have been split in two while those in the Willoughby council area have been grouped together.
The Liberal Party won 55.8% of the two-candidate-preferred vote in North Ku-ring-gai, while independents won 50.7% in South Ku-ring-gai and 53.6% in Willoughby.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14.4% in North Ku-ring-gai to 21.1% in Willoughby.
| Voter group | ALP prim | LIB 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South Ku-ring-gai | 16.5 | 49.3 | 21,377 | 19.2 |
| North Ku-ring-gai | 14.4 | 55.8 | 19,083 | 17.1 |
| Willoughby | 21.1 | 46.4 | 16,671 | 15.0 |
| Pre-poll | 18.8 | 52.7 | 33,487 | 30.1 |
| Other votes | 17.6 | 57.2 | 20,709 | 18.6 |
Election results in Bradfield at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs Independent), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidates and Labor.
Drove past the St Ives pre-poll today.
Boele seemed to have the most volunteers
Yes, drove past a Chatswood voting centre and found the same – interestingly enough, most of the Liberal volunteers were for Scott Yung in neighbouring Bennelong, not for Gisele Kapterian. There was only about 2 posters up for her vs. 10 or so for Scott, despite not being his area.
Wombater
Pre Poll booths are often shared between electorates so having both makes sense. Sometimes they can be quite a way outside the electorate but linkage factors come into play.
Yeah, it’s normal for a pre-poll booth to cater for two or more electorates. In Sydney’s CBD, there are three pre-poll booths covering most electorates in greater Sydney.
Before Easter, I was in Chatswood Mall and there were tons of Scott Yung’s corflutes popped up and volunteers handing out fliers. It was interesting because it’s not even part of Bennelong.
@Redistributed
True, I was just surprised by the ratio of Kapterian to Yung posters (about 1:5) given the location of the pre-poll booth. One would expect it to be 50/50, or the other way around given it was in her electorate.
@Votante
That seems to be the concerning part for Gisele. Bradfield now encompasses Chatswood and to be outshone by someone who isn’t even a candidate in the electorate is concerning.
On 2022 boundaries, it would be understandable but with the redistribution, there’s really no excuse. Scott Yung’s campaign manager is doing a much better job than Kapterian’s manager for sure, as I think Yung’s manager recognises Chatswood as a major CBD for many Bennelong voters, whilst Kapterian’s manager perhaps doesn’t (despite it actually being in her electorate).
drove through both Bennelong and Bradfield yesterday. Did seem more corflutes up for Yung than anyone else (plus the big billboard in Ryde).
There was a distinct lack of anything in Bradfield (Liberal or otherwise) outside of the St Ives pre-poll
Boele was forced by Ausgrid to take all her illegally erected posters down this week.
Scott Yung is a pest
Willoughby PPVC is taking Bennelong ordinary early votes, as is Crows Nest. I think because both Lane Cove, Crows Nest and Willoughby were part of North Sydney in 2022 and very stupidly there is no PPVC in Lane Cove proper, a lot of people drove to Willoughby from other parts, and the AEC feels like they need to let them do so again, even though Willoughby is not close to the border now. There was 5x as many Bradfield voters there this week as Bennelong, so Scott Yung is rally over the top.
All tip and no iceberg
Scott Yung is working on the basis that a lot of Chinese voters go to Chatswood to shop, eat, etc. Rather than somewhere close to home because they feel comfortable there. Box Hill is similar. So on his part quite a good ploy. Not sure how Chatswood went last time but serious damage was done to the Liberal vote at the Box Hill pre poll. Maybe a lesson has been learned. Might help Gisele also if the Liberal brand is associated with an Asian background face.
By the way, what news of our friend Andy Yin and his pre poll effort?
The Asian population of Lane Cove is small compared to Ryde or Willoughby Councils to the west and east. Given Chatswood is a major shopping, commercial and transport hub, there’d be a lot of people of all backgrounds going there.
@Wombater, when I was in Chatswood, there were Andy Yin and Gisele Kaptarian signs as well as Scott Yung signs. There were so many candidate branded shirts that it looked like polling day. That was before Easter.
There’s an Andy Yin sign inside the Burwood Plaza food court, thought that was very strange.
This is looking like it is shaping up to be ultra-close. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bradfield goes to a Recount.
In my letter box today was a hand written promotion by one of Nicolette Boelle’s volunteers(or so he says) explaining how he used to vote Liberal and changed his mind(btw for those wondering about it,it contained a disclosure to comply with the Electoral Act).
I wonder whether this indicates some alarm in Boell’s camp that her campaign is not succeeding.It comes at a time when the Australia is reporting an increase in spending by Simon Holmes a Court.
Boele boasts 1300 volunteers. No surprise that Bazza saw more of them than any other type of volunteer. She has enough volunteers to cover every prepoll and election day booth several times over.
It would be a big flop if she doesn’t win. She’s got a favourable redistribution, a long-time member retiring, Kylea Tink retiring, a (presumably) unpopular opposition leader and a large volunteer army. If she doesn’t win, maybe Kylea Tink should’ve run here despite living slightly outside the electorate.
BTW I saw an Andy Yin sign in Ashfield.
Hi Sabena,
I suppose receiving hand written promotions in the mail from the volunteers is common / normal – I received one today from a Nicolette volunteer. The author didn’t claim to be a previous Liberal voter though.
The letter has a footnote saying it’s authorised by Nicolette.
Too late for me, I’ve already voted.
Hi Redistributed. Re – Andy Yin – he now has a “How to vote for Andy Yin” card- preferncing 2nd to Labor, 3rd to Libertarian, 4th to Nicolette, 5th to Libs. Go figure 🙂
Tink lives in the electorate
Oh. Two years ago, she was living in Lane Cove after selling the family home in Northbridge. Maybe she’s moved since.
https://www.realestate.com.au/news/kylea-tink-sells-northbridge-home-for-635m-at-auction/
It would be disturbing if Boele won this seat after her sexual harasment of a teenaged hairdresser at the beginning of the campaign.
Andy Yin didn’t get too many votes – but it might be enough to get his wish of ensuring that the moderate liberal candidate doesn’t get elected
Andy Yin is a bit like David Sharaz – fancies himself as a player – and gets it all wrong – future team position (any team) – left right out.
I think the Libs will just fall over the line maybe 200 votes.
I grew up in Bradfield – my father was a keen Liberal voter and SO proud to be living in the safest Liberal seat in the country. Probably spinning in his grave as we speak.
@Redistributed – that may be a common story and part of the reason for the Libs continued drop in primary vote
@redistributed I think if Andy Yin did not run, Gisele would have a much better chance. Ultimately, it’s down to a few hundred/thousand votes that Andy Yin (as I predicted) has preferenced to Boelle before the Libs, which may well cost them their seat.
Redistributed- i think you are right.
Most of the seats which the AEC lists as close are not likely to change from the present count to change the result.The ones that are, are where the candidate lead is less than 1000 votes.Those seats in that category are:
Bradfield
Bullwinkel
Fremantle
Goldstein
Longman
Gisele is not out of it yet, postals seem to be trending Liberal. I suspect she may just get over the line by a few votes.
It will be very, very close. Liberal vs. Teal postal votes for Bradfield have always been 60/40 split – the remaining number of postal votes to be counted mean Boelle would be ahead by about 4 votes. Yes, 4 votes. It really could go either way with that tight of a margin.
Really oddly, the YouGov MRP poll of late March nailed the result in this seat. 39/28/20 and very close to 50/50.
Then the late April one came out and made a total hash of it – Boele on 48%!. Obviously their polling was picking something up but the March forecast was already capturing it well
This will be a razor thin rssult either way same as in bullwinkel.
I must just make a point here about the ABC election night coverage, which was pathetic overall but particularly off the mark in regard this seat.
Of all the Teal contested seats, Bradfield was the only one I believe where the graphic did not show the Labor candidate and in trying to explain the ABC computer forecast of Boele winning on 52%, Antony Green managed to mangle his words and state that the “Greens have 25% of the vote” totally omitting Labor from the sentence.
The on the day Senate vote so far counted has Labor on 37.7%, Coalition 36.2% and Green 12.2%. I’m struggling to see how Labor doesn’t win the House 2PP count on those numbers. Yet the ABC thought it appropriate to not include the Labor candidate in its graphic….
youd tbi k if the libs maangar to hang on here that boele would be done.
@Darth Vader
Why is that? Kerri-Anne Dooley wasn’t done after five attempts and the sixth time was the charm!
Who is Kerri-Anne Dooley?
@Redistributed
She unsuccessfully ran in Redcliffe district (Queensland parliament) five times, and was finally elected at the last state election.
My point is that there are candidates who have persisted beyond two failed attempts.
I reckon that if there was no teal candidate and it was just a Liberal vs Labor 2CP contest, Labor would’ve won easily. We wouldn’t even be discussing postal votes right now.
Labor connected with a wider variety of urban demographics whereas Dutton and the Liberals were unpopular especially in seats with moderate or teal liberals and multicultural communities. Labor’s campaign was effective. The swing to Labor in neighbouring Bennelong was over 9%. Even Berowra was mentioned on election night.
@High Street, yeah. The senate results for ordinary voting was a follows – Labor – 37.7%, Coalition – 36.2% and Greens – 12.2%. This also supports my claim.
How do you figure that. If labor would win the 2pp then the teal would have won here easily too. Scott yung had baggage. This is more affluent white collar causcasiians here. Bennelong is still multi ethnic working class.
Nicolas. Because thats different when your running for a party. If boele cant beat a newly minted lib candidate with dutton as leader and the party as a whole going down the toilet hiw does she expect o beat her when she gets a sophmore surge? Whats she gonna run on? Besides a more popular leader and labor being in for 3 more years should benefit the libs.
yes – disagree that no teal means a Labor win. People would have voted Labor if they didn’t like the Lib candidate here and then the discussion would be if ALP or Boele wins
@Votante
The current senate vote in Berowra
Lab: 35.94
Lib: 32.69
Greens: 14.47
And that was won by the Liberals. I suspect the final 2pp Labor vs Lib margin here will be something like 47/48 TPP Labor
In the house your voting for a cnadidate whereas in the senate you mainly vote for a party.
@Darth Vader
I take your point and concede there is a lot of truth to that.
I guess it’s just that I am not so inclined to make definitive statements about what might happen over the next three years. The past decade of Australian politics has taught us to expect the unexpected and distrust our foresight. We thought Labor was done after 2019 and would be banished to opposition for a long time. We thought the Liberals had bottomed out in 2022. Maybe in 2028, the Liberals lose Berowra and Mitchell. Or maybe in 2028, the Teals get wiped out. I would not discount either possibility.
A lot has happened in politics over the past few years, at this stage what can’t you not expect anymore?
Noone thought that about labor. I expected fhe libs to maybe win 2022 but covid and a range oc scandals changed that. And the libs problems were caused by both factors outside their control and their own making. They will recover in 2028. Personally i think they should look elsewhere ofher then Ley; Taylor or Tehan for leader. Ley would make a good placeholder or interim.leader and think she needs to retire at or after the 2028 election.
Anyone considered Angie Bell?
@Darth Vader
During the early days of the COVID era, there was certainly talk that Labor would be stuck in opposition for a long time.
Maybe the Liberals will recover in 2028. I would say it’s more likely than not that they will. But to my point, they were meant to recover in 2025.
@Up the dragons
I had that thought too… She would be the first LGBTQ+ leader of a major political party at the federal level.
Yea remeber right up until the start of the campiagn it looked like they would but then they stalled. Internal and external factirs. Under normal circumstances they would have
Currently Boele is 416 votes up. On my rough calculation extrapolated from last time with a small swing to Boele on absents and provisional prepolls then the Libs will be about 40 votes up. That is if not a single extra postal comes in and the rate doesn’t tick up. If there was a recount, the Liberal scrutineers would probably be more experienced than the Boele ones.
@redistributed there’s 1894 votes left. Boelle is up by 416 votes. But postal vote trends 60/40 Lib to Teal. And that was from 2022 whilst 2025 is actually 58.5/41.5 Lib to Teal.
Based on a 60/40 split, according to the current trend, the Libs would be 379 votes ahead just on the remaining postal votes. And on a 58.5/41.5 split, they’d be 322 votes ahead. Meaning Boelle is still 37-94 votes ahead overall.
It might be surprising but in hindsight it makes sense if Labor does end up with a stronger 2PP than Boele’s margin on 2CP. I think ethnic voters and in this electorate particularly Chinese voters are more naturally drawn to Labor as opposed to the teals. Boele herself may not have been too effective at courting them. We’ve seen a situation in Hawthorn 2022 where the teal did not perform stronger than Labor on a 2CP but this may be the first significant outperformance by Labor compared to a teal.
Re: postals, it should be noted that later postals tend to be significantly weaker for Liberals than earlier counts. So projecting based on the current margin for postals is likely not accurate. Still, it’s very tight and could go either way.