ALP 3.6%
Incumbent MP
Mary Doyle, since 2023
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Aston covers the entire Knox local government area and the southern edge of the Maroondah council area. Suburbs include Bayswater, Boronia, Knoxfield, Scoresby, Wantirna and Rowville.
Redistribution
Aston shifted slightly north, taking in part of Heathmont from Deakin. This change reduced the Liberal margin (based on the 2022 election) from 2.8% to 2.6%.
History
Aston was first created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1984, and has tended to be a marginal seat, although the seat has been consistently held by the Liberal Party for the last three decades.
Aston was first won in 1984 by ALP candidate John Saunderson, who had previously been elected to Deakin at the 1983 election. Saunderson held on with a smaller margin in 1987 before losing with a 7% swing at the 1990 election.
The seat was won in 1990 by Peter Nugent (LIB). Nugent was known as a moderate Liberal who supported human rights issues. He was reelected with a slim margin in 1993 and pushed his margin out to almost 6% in 1996, and was re-elected again in 1998. Nugent died in April 2001 of a heart attack, triggering the Aston by-election.
The Howard government was not performing strongly in the first half of 2001, having seen disastrous results in state elections in Queensland and Western Australia and the loss of the blue-ribbon Brisbane seat of Ryan in another federal by-election.
The Liberal Party’s candidate, Chris Pearce, managed to hold on with 50.6% of the vote, limiting the anti-Liberal swing to 3.7%, which was seen as a strong result for the government, and the beginning of the turnaround which saw the Howard government returned at the 2001 election.
Pearce was reelected with just over 56% in 2001, and pushed his margin to over 63% in 2004, the largest victory margin in Aston’s history. Pearce was again re-elected in 2007, although his margin was cut to 5%.
In 2010, Pearce retired and the Liberal Party’s Alan Tudge won the seat with a reduced margin. Tudge was re-elected four times, serving as a minister from 2016 until the Coalition government was defeated in 2022. Tudge announced his retirement in early 2023.
The 2023 by-election was won by Labor candidate Mary Doyle in a rare case of a government gaining a seat off an opposition at a by-election.
- Manny Cicchiello (Liberal)
- Mary Doyle (Labor)
- Craig Manners (Family First)
- Andrew Williams (Independent)
- David Fawcett (Libertarian)
- Mark Grondman (Independent)
- Reuben Steen (Greens)
- John De Wacht (One Nation)
- Steve Desveaux (Trumpet of Patriots)
Assessment
Aston is a very marginal seat. While Doyle has not had a full term to bed herself in, her incumbency gives her a chance at retaining this seat. This area has been trending towards Labor and she could well perform better than national trends, but Labor’s loss of support in Victoria will make things harder for Doyle.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Alan Tudge | Liberal | 42,260 | 43.1 | -11.6 | 42.8 |
| Mary Doyle | Labor | 31,949 | 32.5 | +2.7 | 32.5 |
| Asher Cookson | Greens | 11,855 | 12.1 | +3.2 | 12.2 |
| Rebekah Spelman | United Australia | 5,990 | 6.1 | +2.5 | 5.9 |
| Craig Ibbotson | One Nation | 3,022 | 3.1 | +3.1 | 3.1 |
| Liam Roche | Liberal Democrats | 2,111 | 2.2 | +2.2 | 2.2 |
| Ryan Bruce | TNL | 973 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 0.9 |
| Others | 0.5 | ||||
| Informal | 3,320 | 3.3 | -0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Alan Tudge | Liberal | 51,840 | 52.8 | -7.3 | 52.6 |
| Mary Doyle | Labor | 46,320 | 47.2 | +7.3 | 47.4 |
2023 by-election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mary Doyle | Labor | 37,318 | 40.9 | +8.3 |
| Roshena Campbell | Liberal | 35,680 | 39.1 | -4.0 |
| Angelica Di Camillo | Greens | 9,256 | 10.1 | -1.9 |
| Maya Tesa | Independent | 6,426 | 7.0 | +7.0 |
| Owen Miller | Fusion | 2,637 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Informal | 3,112 | 3.3 | +3.3 |
2023 by-election two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mary Doyle | Labor | 48,915 | 53.6 | +6.4 |
| Roshena Campbell | Liberal | 42,402 | 46.4 | -6.4 |
Polling places in Aston have been divided into four parts: central, north-east, north-west and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas at the 2022 election, with 50.6% in the north-west and 56% in the south. Labor won 53.9% in the north-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.9% in the south to 16.2% in the north-east at the 2022 election.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in every area at the 2023 by-election, ranging from 50.3% in the south to 61.1% in the north-east. The Greens primary vote ranged from 10% in the south to 14.2% in the north-east.
2022 booth breakdown
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 12.9 | 50.6 | 17,895 | 16.7 |
| North-East | 16.2 | 46.1 | 16,244 | 15.1 |
| South | 10.9 | 56.0 | 9,439 | 8.8 |
| Pre-poll | 10.8 | 54.5 | 42,006 | 39.1 |
| Other votes | 11.9 | 54.0 | 21,812 | 20.3 |
2023 by-election booth breakdown
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 10.8 | 56.3 | 18,224 | 20.0 |
| North-East | 14.2 | 61.1 | 14,855 | 16.3 |
| South | 10.0 | 50.3 | 13,444 | 14.7 |
| Pre-poll | 9.0 | 51.4 | 29,271 | 32.1 |
| Other votes | 7.8 | 50.1 | 15,523 | 17.0 |
Election results in Aston at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Election results at the 2023 Aston by-election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
This seat is my wildcard pick for Liberals to win it despite the polling trends.
Even Labor polling suggests they will lose it vctoria is gonna swing alot harder then the rest of the country
The MRP shows this seat to be close, while skeptical of MRP polls this should be a walk in the park for the Liberals which really shows how poor their campaign has been run here.
The last time a party flipped a seat at a by-election and then retained it at the following general election was when the Liberals won Groom off the Nationals in 1988. The Liberals retained it in 1990. Before that was when Labor won the 1982 Lowe by-election and held it at the 1983 Labor landslide. I don’t count Rob Oakeshott as a party.