ALP 3.6%
Incumbent MP
Mary Doyle, since 2023
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Aston covers the entire Knox local government area and the southern edge of the Maroondah council area. Suburbs include Bayswater, Boronia, Knoxfield, Scoresby, Wantirna and Rowville.
Redistribution
Aston shifted slightly north, taking in part of Heathmont from Deakin. This change reduced the Liberal margin (based on the 2022 election) from 2.8% to 2.6%.
History
Aston was first created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1984, and has tended to be a marginal seat, although the seat has been consistently held by the Liberal Party for the last three decades.
Aston was first won in 1984 by ALP candidate John Saunderson, who had previously been elected to Deakin at the 1983 election. Saunderson held on with a smaller margin in 1987 before losing with a 7% swing at the 1990 election.
The seat was won in 1990 by Peter Nugent (LIB). Nugent was known as a moderate Liberal who supported human rights issues. He was reelected with a slim margin in 1993 and pushed his margin out to almost 6% in 1996, and was re-elected again in 1998. Nugent died in April 2001 of a heart attack, triggering the Aston by-election.
The Howard government was not performing strongly in the first half of 2001, having seen disastrous results in state elections in Queensland and Western Australia and the loss of the blue-ribbon Brisbane seat of Ryan in another federal by-election.
The Liberal Party’s candidate, Chris Pearce, managed to hold on with 50.6% of the vote, limiting the anti-Liberal swing to 3.7%, which was seen as a strong result for the government, and the beginning of the turnaround which saw the Howard government returned at the 2001 election.
Pearce was reelected with just over 56% in 2001, and pushed his margin to over 63% in 2004, the largest victory margin in Aston’s history. Pearce was again re-elected in 2007, although his margin was cut to 5%.
In 2010, Pearce retired and the Liberal Party’s Alan Tudge won the seat with a reduced margin. Tudge was re-elected four times, serving as a minister from 2016 until the Coalition government was defeated in 2022. Tudge announced his retirement in early 2023.
The 2023 by-election was won by Labor candidate Mary Doyle in a rare case of a government gaining a seat off an opposition at a by-election.
- Manny Cicchiello (Liberal)
- Mary Doyle (Labor)
- Craig Manners (Family First)
- Andrew Williams (Independent)
- David Fawcett (Libertarian)
- Mark Grondman (Independent)
- Reuben Steen (Greens)
- John De Wacht (One Nation)
- Steve Desveaux (Trumpet of Patriots)
Assessment
Aston is a very marginal seat. While Doyle has not had a full term to bed herself in, her incumbency gives her a chance at retaining this seat. This area has been trending towards Labor and she could well perform better than national trends, but Labor’s loss of support in Victoria will make things harder for Doyle.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Alan Tudge | Liberal | 42,260 | 43.1 | -11.6 | 42.8 |
| Mary Doyle | Labor | 31,949 | 32.5 | +2.7 | 32.5 |
| Asher Cookson | Greens | 11,855 | 12.1 | +3.2 | 12.2 |
| Rebekah Spelman | United Australia | 5,990 | 6.1 | +2.5 | 5.9 |
| Craig Ibbotson | One Nation | 3,022 | 3.1 | +3.1 | 3.1 |
| Liam Roche | Liberal Democrats | 2,111 | 2.2 | +2.2 | 2.2 |
| Ryan Bruce | TNL | 973 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 0.9 |
| Others | 0.5 | ||||
| Informal | 3,320 | 3.3 | -0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Alan Tudge | Liberal | 51,840 | 52.8 | -7.3 | 52.6 |
| Mary Doyle | Labor | 46,320 | 47.2 | +7.3 | 47.4 |
2023 by-election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mary Doyle | Labor | 37,318 | 40.9 | +8.3 |
| Roshena Campbell | Liberal | 35,680 | 39.1 | -4.0 |
| Angelica Di Camillo | Greens | 9,256 | 10.1 | -1.9 |
| Maya Tesa | Independent | 6,426 | 7.0 | +7.0 |
| Owen Miller | Fusion | 2,637 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Informal | 3,112 | 3.3 | +3.3 |
2023 by-election two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mary Doyle | Labor | 48,915 | 53.6 | +6.4 |
| Roshena Campbell | Liberal | 42,402 | 46.4 | -6.4 |
Polling places in Aston have been divided into four parts: central, north-east, north-west and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas at the 2022 election, with 50.6% in the north-west and 56% in the south. Labor won 53.9% in the north-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.9% in the south to 16.2% in the north-east at the 2022 election.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in every area at the 2023 by-election, ranging from 50.3% in the south to 61.1% in the north-east. The Greens primary vote ranged from 10% in the south to 14.2% in the north-east.
2022 booth breakdown
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 12.9 | 50.6 | 17,895 | 16.7 |
| North-East | 16.2 | 46.1 | 16,244 | 15.1 |
| South | 10.9 | 56.0 | 9,439 | 8.8 |
| Pre-poll | 10.8 | 54.5 | 42,006 | 39.1 |
| Other votes | 11.9 | 54.0 | 21,812 | 20.3 |
2023 by-election booth breakdown
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 10.8 | 56.3 | 18,224 | 20.0 |
| North-East | 14.2 | 61.1 | 14,855 | 16.3 |
| South | 10.0 | 50.3 | 13,444 | 14.7 |
| Pre-poll | 9.0 | 51.4 | 29,271 | 32.1 |
| Other votes | 7.8 | 50.1 | 15,523 | 17.0 |
Election results in Aston at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Election results at the 2023 Aston by-election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
This seat is my wildcard pick for Liberals to win it despite the polling trends.
Even Labor polling suggests they will lose it vctoria is gonna swing alot harder then the rest of the country
The MRP shows this seat to be close, while skeptical of MRP polls this should be a walk in the park for the Liberals which really shows how poor their campaign has been run here.
The last time a party flipped a seat at a by-election and then retained it at the following general election was when the Liberals won Groom off the Nationals in 1988. The Liberals retained it in 1990. Before that was when Labor won the 1982 Lowe by-election and held it at the 1983 Labor landslide. I don’t count Rob Oakeshott as a party.
Insiders from both sides say that this seat is gone for Labor. A Liberal said that Labor isn’t sandbagging that much.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-s-path-to-majority-emerges-as-albanese-fights-to-stem-losses-20250429-p5luzc
Whatever happens to Mary Doyle, she will always have the distinction of:
1. Making an opposition seat flip to the government for the first time in over 100 years.
2. Being the first federal MP to swear allegiance to King Charles.
Point 1. Flip at a by-election.
If Labor did not have state based factors to worry about they could target Aston but if they have to try to stem the losses in Victoria Aston will be a sacrificial lamb.
Andrew Giles has been down here on the pre poll with Mary. From what I’ve been told is that on the three different pre poll places is Boronia is really good for Labor, Scoresby is good for Labor and the Liberals are doing good in the Rowville pre poll. Manny is always at Boronia whereby Mary hops around on three pre polls throughout the day. Both parties from when I ask them seem to think whoever wins this seat it will be tight and some Liberals think she has chance of holding on. For personally the Liberals seem desperate as they are putting up attack adds on Mary directly with Jacinta Allen which would suggest to me that they might struggling here.
me’
Liberals struggling”
Dutton visited this seat quite a few times so whilist i still expect the Libs to notionally retain the seat i dont think it is a cake walk for the Libs and probably it will be somewhere simmilar to the 2022 General election result. I say much of this seat especially West of Stud Road is more middle suburban than outer suburban these days
Had some intel today from a source close to Mary Doyle. Source indicated that she is not confident of winning. Read into that what you will.
I wouldn’t think she’s ever been confident of winning to be honest, as I think she has likely always been considered the underdog despite being the incumbent.
It’s probably only the last couple of weeks where Labor (and herself) have actually thought she might have a chance, prior to that I think Aston was almost written off for Labor.
Agree with Trent she is the underdog Aston is really only a seat Labor can win during a high watermark in Victoria. when Labor is expecting a swing against it in the state this seat is a lower priority
I was on the Heathmont West (Aston), it was mostly people taking Labor and Greens or all not so much Liberal.
That the Liberals couldn’t even get this seat back which party insiders on both sides thought was an easy flip, and that Mary Doyle wasn’t even confident about says a lot.
This is first time Labor has won this seat at a general election sense 1987, Labor was definitely assisted by the redistribution with parts from Deakin as some of the swings to Labor in those booths were in the double digits.
This seat was pretty much written off for Labor and i did not expect Mary Doyle to be re-elected. Of the 3 Victorian seats gained by Labor, Aston will have the highest margin and the by-election swing has been repeated. Aston is also the most Outer Suburban of the 3 seats. In the aftermath of the Aston by-election Pesutto was blamed but Moira Deeming has been reinstatated but Aston has not gone back to the Libs.
Mary Doyle made history
1. Making an opposition seat flip to the government for the first time in over 100 years.
2. The First Female MP for Aston. The First MP for Aston at the seats creation was also from Labor. So Labor gets both honours.
3. Winning, Labor win at a general election since 1987 at the time it was an outer suburban mortgage belt seat like Holt is now.
3. The only ever Member of parliament who flipped a opposition held seat at a by-election and kept it. George Foley who won the only other by-election lost it at the next general election.
Aston was said to be the next Kooyong/Higgins but now has a Labor MP. What ever happens to Mary Doyle in 2028 she will be in the Pantheon of Labor legends along with Maxine McKew, Ali France .
@Nimalan the other Pantheon of Labor Legends with Maxine McKew and Ali France is Sarah Witty.
The seat was written off because people thought there’d be a collapse in Labor’s vote in the outer suburbs of Melbourne but that didn’t happen.
There was a swing away from Labor when you compare it to the 2023 by-election. Labor has maintained its dominance in eastern Melbourne regardless.
Mary Doyle, Ali France and Sarah Witty – all history-makers.
Crazy to think this was the safest Liberal seat in metropolitan Melbourne only six years ago.
It’s staggering to see the how much the Liberal vote has collapsed in the polling booths. Labor has won all with the exception of two booths and out of those two booths labor narrowly missed out on one. In 2019 the Liberals won the Lysterfield booth 75/25 and now in 2025 it’s 56/44. If the Liberals want to get back into government anytime soon Aston, Chisholm, Deakin and Menzies are must wins.
Agree @Real James and Votante
Sarah Witty is also a Labor legend. While there was a smaller swing away from the by-election it is still a big swing from the general election in 2022 so in a way it is actually a Labor pick up. Much of Aston especially along the Belgrave line is friendly for Labor and while a lot of the focus has been on McMansion suburbs here much of Aston is textbook Middle Australia.