Sydney – Australia 2022

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6 COMMENTS

  1. Tanya Plibersek should retain this seat comfortably. I know some have suggested this seat could be vulnerable to the Greens when she leaves. But those voices have quietened over the past elections where the Greens have failed to make the two party preferred vote.

    If Anthony Albanese doesn’t win the next election my guess it will be Plibersek who is leader. Jim Chalmers is still young and has time, and Bill Shorten is still likely to be seen as damaged goods. Interestingly Kristina Keneally odds are higher then Chalmers and Shorten on Sportsbet.

  2. My view is that Sydney city voters are like most left-leaning inner-city voters who can see themselves voting for multiple different parties given the right conditions. Plibersek has been in the seat for decades, she’s managed to build up a personal machine that’ll no doubt see her elected as long as she asks for it. But municipal Labor candidates have already been comprehensively marginalised by the Clover group and even lost the state electoral district to them. So clearly Sydney’s not all ALP rusted-ons.

    There are some demographic differences between Sydney and Grayndler, most notably mean personal income, and I can see an argument that that breeds a more centrist tendency. But I’m pretty confident the Greens probably won’t try very hard here anyway, and are much more interested in Richmond and how much they can cut into Albo’s margin.

    Generally agree about Plibersek’s leadership prospects. I doubt many would bet against her if she wanted the leadership, and Albo was offering it at least semi-amicably. The question is whether she wants it.

  3. Furtive,
    When Clover Moore was elected to state parliament in 1988, she defeated a sitting Liberal Party MP.
    The Liberal Party has been trying to ‘get Clover’ ever since.

  4. You’re right Watson, and the state seat is still more Liberal leaning than the federal one. But there are booths in Sydney LGA with single digit ALP primary votes that support Plibersek at the federal level. Similarly, the Greens outpolled the Labour candidate in every single booth in the Newtown electoral district. Even in Redfern.

  5. Generally agree about Plibersek’s leadership prospects. I doubt many would bet against her if she wanted the leadership, and Albo was offering it at least semi-amicably. The question is whether she wants it.

    She does want it. The real reason not pursing after the last federal election is Anthony Albanese had the support in the Left faction sewn up. Which is Tanya Plibersek’s faction. If and its a big if Albanese doesn’t win the next election. Then Plibersek would likely pursue it because she won’t get another chance. Plibersek is a senior politician and is not getting any younger, and is in her prime. It’s either now or never for her. However, by saying that Albanese did have a commanding lead in Newspoll the other day. So it’s probable that the scenario may not even come up but it’s not certain.

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