Why does labor do so poorly in Essendon?
Essendon and Strathmore are two of the most affluent parts of the north-western suburbs.
In fact, most of the current Maribyrnong is relatively ‘Liberal’ compared to the surrounding seats. Hence its current margin is quite a bit softer for Labor than Calwell, Gorton, Fraser, etc.
Is Ascot Vale that different to Essendon/Moonee Ponds? I know Flemington/Kensington has a lot of Public Housing and would have historically been inner city working class suburbs but not exact sure about Ascot Vale.
Ascot Vale has a fair bit of public housing too.
So it’s more like Flemington in that it was a traditionally less-desirable area that’s now becoming more trendy and affluent….but in a ‘Green’ way rather than a ‘Liberal’ way.
Cool thanks Mark for the clarification.
Ben, following the 2017-18 redistribution, you helped out with some indications of the change in vote that might be needed for the Greens to overtake the Liberals for second place in Maribyrnong. How do the new “platypus” shape boundaries of the 2021-22 Maribyrnong affect that calculus (given that new territory includes the Greenish Kensington and the traditionally Labor Gladstone Park & Tullamarine)?
I can’t remember exactly what I did, but I think the distribution of preferences means you can do an estimate of 3PP. Not a high priority but I assume it will be slightly easier for the Greens with the increased primary vote.
I feel at the next redistribution, the Liberals will push for this seat to shed the areas around Kensington and Ascot Vale and into Keilor and Taylors Lakes. This might allow to them to potentially gain a seat in Melbourne’s west, first time since the 1970s.
If indeed (as is highly likely) Victoria looses a seat in the next redistribution, Maribyrnong is more likely to be pushed northward rather than westward because the seat that goes is likely to be in the east and therefore the outer suburban seats will be shifting east and potentially draw the inner suburban seats northward, .
The Liberals might have won Maribyrnong in 1990 on the 1984 boundaries but Victoria lost a seat (its 39th) in the 1988 determination and that drove the seat into St Albans and increased the ALP margin by about 0.2% more than the ALP`s winning margin in 1990.
The current size of Parliament makes it hard to draw a seat the Liberal seat can win in north and or west of the Yarra in metro Melbourne.
Unlikely, as Bill Shorten would have a personal vote so I would doubt him loosing his seat, however when he retires it could come into play.
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