Lindsay – Australia 2022

LIB 5.0%

Incumbent MP
Melissa McIntosh, since 2019.

Geography
Western Sydney. Lindsay covers most of the City of Penrith, stretching from Londonderry in the north to Mulgoa in the south.

History

Lindsay was first created as part of the 1984 expansion of the House of Representatives, and had always been held by the party of government until 2016.

The seat was first won by the ALP’s Ross Free in 1984. Free had previously held the seat of Macquarie since 1980. Free served as a minister from 1991 until his defeat in 1996 by the Liberal Party’s Jackie Kelly.

Kelly won the seat with a swing of almost 12%, destroying Free’s margin of over 10% after the 1993 election. Kelly was disqualified from sitting in Parliament six months after winning her seat due to her RAAF employment and failure to renounce her New Zealand citizenship, and Lindsay went to a by-election seven months after the 1996 federal election, where Free suffered another swing of almost 5%.

Kelly served as a junior minister in the second Howard government and as John Howard’s Parliamentary Secretary during his third term. Kelly announced her retirement at the 2007 election, and the Liberal Party preselected Karen Chijoff, while the ALP preselected David Bradbury, a former Mayor of Penrith who had run against Kelly in 2001 and 2004.

Three days before the 2007 election, a ramshackle attempt by the Liberal Party to paint the ALP as sympathetic to terrorists was exposed in Lindsay, when ALP operatives caught Liberals red-handed distributing leaflets supposedly from an Islamic group praising the ALP for showing forgiveness to the Bali Bombers. The husbands of both the sitting member and the Liberal candidate were amongst those caught up in the scandal. The scandal dominated the final days of the campaign, and Bradbury defeated Chijoff comfortably, with a 9.7% swing.

Bradbury was re-elected in 2010, but lost in 2013 to Liberal candidate Fiona Scott.

Scott lost her seat in 2016 to Labor’s Emma Husar. Husar served one term, but fell out with her party after allegations about her behaviour in office. She ended up not running for re-election, and the Liberal Party’s Melissa McIntosh won the seat.

Candidates

  • Melissa McIntosh (Liberal)
  • Assessment
    Lindsay is a marginal seat that has a history of flipping back and forth. You’d normally expect McIntosh to benefit from a new personal vote after winning the seat off Labor in 2019.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Melissa McIntosh Liberal 45,24746.5+7.2
    Diane Beamer Labor 34,69035.6-5.5
    Nick Best Greens 4,7814.9+1.3
    Mark TyndallIndependent2,7852.9+2.9
    Christopher ButtelUnited Australia Party2,8312.9+2.9
    Brandon LeesConservative National Party2,3742.4+2.4
    Mark K.C. Moody-BasedowChristian Democratic Party1,9972.1-1.0
    Jim SaleamAustralia First1,3721.4+0.2
    Geoff BrownSustainable Australia1,3261.4+1.4
    Informal12,13511.1-0.7

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Melissa McIntosh Liberal 53,61455.0+6.2
    Diane Beamer Labor 43,78945.0-6.2

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into central, east, north and west. North covers the rural booths including Londonderry, while East covers St Marys. West covers the booths on the other side of the Nepean River plus Mulgoa and a few other booths in between.

    The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three ares, barely winning in the centre and winning over 60% in the north and west. Labor polled 57.5% in the east.

    Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Central50.923,43724.1
    West60.118,05218.5
    North60.411,11311.4
    East42.59,3979.6
    Pre-poll57.425,19225.9
    Other votes55.410,21210.5

    Election results in Lindsay at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.

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    16 COMMENTS

    1. I’ll start the discussion here in Lindsay by saying Melissa Macintosh while low profile should reelected with a slight swing to her. I disagree that this seat is “trending liberal” this did lose it’s bellwether status in 2016 and remember Penrith came close to flipping at the state election despite the fact Labor came short in most of the other traditional marginal seats or the seats they needed to win.

      Labor should get this if and when they win government again but it won’t be in 2022 and unlikely to be 2025 if Tanya succeeds Albanese.

      Labor is more likely to win here than Banks or Reid

    2. Thanks Nicholas, fixing now.

      It is true that Lindsay voted to the right of NSW in 2019 for the first time since the 2004 election (which was followed by a significant redistribution) but for now that’s just one datapoint.

    3. Daniel
      Agreed. Spectacularly unlikely that Labor gets this back ever. I can’t imagine whatever contortions the AEC can possibly impose that would change this The libs will push for everything east of South Creek (ie St Marys) to go to Chifley. The result of this would be obvious. They pushed for half last time.

    4. Hey Daniel.

      “and unlikely to be 2025 if Tanya succeeds Albanese.”

      You also could’ve worded it like so:

      “and unlikely to be 2025 if Plibersek succeeds Anthony.”

      Why do some people get referred to by their first name, but not others?

    5. In some cases I can buy it when the first name is a bit unique and the surname hard to spell (think Gladys Berejiklian), but I wouldn’t have thought that spelling Plibersek was significantly harder than spelling Albanese. And Tanya could mean anyone.

    6. B of P
      First names or nicknames could signify importance affection, admiration, notoriety, Or hatred.
      Myself .? It’s all about impact !!. Whatever suits my “florid expression” as Wreathy put it so flatteringly !!
      cheers WD

    7. This seat was a real mess in 2019 & it honestly wouldn’t have mattered if Labor had won the election as this seat would have still gone to the LNP, what will be interesting to see in the next federal election if it will stay or go back to Labor.

    8. Dominic Perrotet becoming premier will likely result in this falling to Labor. the most conservative premier since Askin will alienate allot of voters in the centre and the anger will likely go to federal as well like how Labor was punished in NSW in 2010 with Kennelly being an unpopular premier

    9. Lindsay is not really Small l liberal territory so i dont believe DP’s social conservativism would affect him here. It is the classic Howard Battler seat. It maybe the case that the Liberal vote in the more progressive Blue Mountains (Macquarie) will slide further. Generally, i think DP will be judged in 2023 based on the economy and service delivery rather than social issues.

    10. I expect the Liberals to hold here with not much swing at all either way it goes,with the reopening happen people’s views on lockdown will be a thing of the past and the focus Will more be generalised onto the economy with also an expectation with federal polling in NSW to slowly start coming back to the Liberals too.

    11. Daniel with yet another thought-bubble with no data to back it up… I’d love to see a stat on his predictions, in terms of any that he has actually got right. Especially this far our from an election

      Nimalan is correct. Howard Battler Seat. The issues are more locally necessitous, focused around delivery of services. It is way too early to make a call on this seat yet. Probably another year to go before we can start seeing something more solid.

    12. There is a lot of rubbish being said on this thread.
      Why wouldn’t McIntosh get a strong sophomore surge ?
      Why would the momentum of about a 9% swing in 2019 just disappear ?
      Why wouldn’t the 5000+ new voters behave like the previous influx of new voters ?
      Check out the AEC election results for Lindsay . They are pretty devastating

      DP , “small liberal”vs “conservative” is ridiculous nonsense. What has erupted in Victoria is far more likely to be significant, & deeply damage the Labor brand, Albo & all major parties. Watch how quickly Chris Minns condemns all this , & attempts to distance himself from all the debacles. Minns has the best judgement of any Labor MP ATM.

      Anyone predicting a labor win here needs to change their medication, OR IS CERTIFIABLE IN THE SECOND PLACE.

    13. Daniel appears to be a flip flopper, at the start of this year before the 3rd COVID wave struck Australia he indicated the Liberals would be strongly favoured to win this seat. Now with the Sydney lockdown and change of NSW premier he says Labor is now favoured.

      Whilst Perrottet has made a few missteps since taking over as NSW Premier, overall he is sticking with the vaccination targets and I wished Premier Anastasia in my new home state of Queensland would also set similar targets for additional freedoms like interstate travel resumption based on set vaccination targets.

    14. If this seat falls, it’ll be because of Morrison and the federal government, not because of Dominic Perrottet. State issues can impact federal issues, but not by a 5% margin.

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