South Metropolitan – WA 2021

Incumbent MLCs

  • Kate Doust (Labor), since 2001.
  • Sue Ellery (Labor), since 2001.
  • Nick Goiran (Liberal), since 2009.
  • Simon O’Brien (Liberal), since 1997.
  • Aaron Stonehouse (Liberal Democrats), since 2017.
  • Pierre Yang (Labor), since 2017.

Geography

ElectorateMarginElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
BaldivisALP 3.7% vs INDFremantleALP 23.1%South PerthLIB 7.2%
BatemanLIB 8.2%JandakotALP 2.0%Southern RiverALP 7.9%
BictonALP 3.5%KwinanaALP 21.0%Victoria ParkALP 16.3%
CanningtonALP 17.9%RivertonLIB 4.4%WarnbroALP 23.7%
CockburnALP 13.7%RockinghamALP 23.6%WillageeALP 18.1%

The South Metropolitan region covers the southern third of the Perth metropolitan area, stretching from the Swan river to Warnbro.

Labor holds twelve seats in the region, and the Liberal Party holds three.

You can click through to individual seat profiles on the table above or on the map below.

Redistribution
There was very little change to the external boundaries of the region – a small area at the southern end of the region was moved into Baldivis and Kwinana from Darling Range in East Metropolitan. Changes to electorates within the region were relatively small – no seat names were changed and no seats switched parties.

History

South Metropolitan was created as a five-member electorate in 1989.

At the first election in 1989, South Metro elected three Labor and two Liberal MLCs. For five successive elections, the left (Labor and Greens) won three seats to two Liberals.

In 1993, the ALP lost their third seat to the Greens’ Jim Scott – the first Green to win a seat in the WA Parliament.

The split of 2 Labor, 2 Liberal and 1 Greens was maintained at the 1993, 1996 and 2001 elections.

Jim Scott retired at the time of the WA state election in 2005, and he was succeeded in the Greens seat by Lynn MacLaren, who then failed to win re-election, and only held the term for a few months.

The ALP regained a third seat at the expense of the Greens in 2005.

In 2008, South Metropolitan became a six-seat region. The ALP lost their third seat to the Greens’ Lynn MacLaren, while the Liberal Party gained a third seat. The parties maintained the same result in 2013.

The Liberal Party lost their third seat in 2017, with the Liberal Democrats gaining that seat. Labor regained a third seat in 2017 at the expense of the Greens.

2017 result

GroupVotes%SwingQuotaSeatsRedist %Redist q.
Labor 155,67844.98.03.1406344.93.1521
Liberal 84,65224.4-22.51.7077224.41.7138
Greens 32,1009.30.50.647609.20.6492
One Nation24,2567.07.00.489307.00.4926
Liberal Democrats13,5713.93.90.273813.90.2740
Australian Christians6,8762.00.00.138702.00.1394
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers5,2111.50.00.105101.50.1061
Animal Justice4,4341.31.30.089401.30.0897
Others20,2075.80.407635.80.4088
Informal10,2572.9

Four seats were decided on primary votes: three Labor and one Liberal.

Let’s fast forward to the final nine candidates running for the two remaining seats:

  • Simon O’Brien (LIB) – 0.750 quotas
  • Lynn MacLaren (GRN) – 0.683
  • Philip Scott (ON) – 0.493
  • Aaron Stonehouse (LDP) – 0.275
  • Wilson Tucker (DSP) – 0.260
  • Bob Burdett (CHR) – 0.185
  • Kelly McManus (ALP) – 0.144
  • Peter Raffaelli (SFF) – 0.108
  • Katrina Love (AJP) – 0.100

Animal Justice preferences flowed to the Greens:

  • MacLaren (GRN) – 0.771
  • O’Brien (LIB) – 0.751
  • Scott (ON) – 0.494
  • Stonehouse (LDP) – 0.275
  • Tucker (DSP) – 0.261
  • Burdett (CHR) – 0.185
  • McManus (ALP) – 0.145
  • Raffaelli (SFF) – 0.115

Shooters preferences flowed mostly to the Australian Christians, with some going to the Liberal Democrats:

  • MacLaren (GRN) – 0.772
  • O’Brien (LIB) – 0.752
  • Scott (ON) – 0.496
  • Burdett (CHR) – 0.286
  • Stonehouse (LDP) – 0.284
  • Tucker (DSP) – 0.262
  • McManus (ALP) – 0.146

Labor preferences flowed to the Greens. In most regions this would normally be enough to put the Greens over the top, but the very high Labor vote meant there wasn’t that much of a surplus, and MacLaren barely cleared 90% of a quota:

  • MacLaren (GRN) – 0.907
  • O’Brien (LIB) – 0.754
  • Scott (ON) – 0.500
  • Burdett (CHR) – 0.288
  • Stonehouse (LDP) – 0.285
  • Tucker (DSP) – 0.265

The Daylight Saving Party, who had turned less than 6% of a quota on primary votes into a vote total more than four times as big, were now excluded, and most of their preferences flowed to the Liberal Democrats:

  • MacLaren (GRN) – 0.911
  • O’Brien (LIB) – 0.756
  • Stonehouse (LDP) – 0.540
  • Scott (ON) – 0.502
  • Burdett (CHR) – 0.289

A majority of Australian Christians preferences flowed to the Liberal Democrats, with some going to One Nation:

  • MacLaren (GRN) – 0.913
  • O’Brien (LIB) – 0.761
  • Stonehouse (LDP) – 0.717
  • Scott (ON) – 0.605

One Nation preferences flowed almost entirely to the LDP, electing Stonehouse to the fifth seat:

  • Stonehouse (LDP) – 1.193
  • MacLaren (GRN) – 0.927
  • O’Brien (LIB) – 0.877

The LDP surplus flowed mostly to the Liberal Party, giving them a narrow win over the Greens:

  • O’Brien (LIB) – 1.036
  • MacLaren (GRN) – 0.960

Candidates

  • A – Graham West (Independent)
  • B – Keith Pomeroy (Flux / Liberals for Climate)
  • C – Jourdan Kestel (Independent)
  • D – Amanda Klaj (Daylight Saving Party)
  • E – Samantha Vinci (Great Australian Party)
  • F – Brad Pettitt (Greens)
  • G – Liberal
    1. Nick Goiran
    2. Michelle Hofmann
    3. Ka-ren Chew
    4. Robert Reid
    5. Nitin Vashisht
    6. Scott Stirling
  • H – Steven Tonge (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • I – Ryan Oostryck (Sustainable Australia)
  • J – Mark Rowley (Independent)
  • K – Colleen Saporita (Animal Justice)
  • L – Labor
    1. Sue Ellery
    2. Kate Doust
    3. Klara Andric
    4. Stephen Pratt
    5. Victoria Helps
    6. Kelly McManus
  • M – Aaron Stonehouse (Liberal Democrats)
  • N – Peter McLernon (Waxit)
  • O – Moshe Bernstein (Legalise Cannabis)
  • P – Michele Castle (Health Australia)
  • Q – Dave Glossop (Independent)
  • R – Warnar Spyker (Australian Christians)
  • S – Cam Tinley (No Mandatory Vaccination)
  • T – Philip Scott (One Nation)
  • U – Katy Mair (Western Australia Party)
  • V – Glen Michael Leslie (Independent)
  • W – Stan Francis (Independent)
  • X – Marianne Mackay (Socialist Alliance)
  • Y – Leon Hamilton (Independent)
  • Z – Larry Foley (Independent)

Preferences
Labor preferenced the Greens second, followed by the parties in the micro-party alliance.

The Liberal Party preferenced the Liberal Democrats second, followed by the Australian Christians, the Shooters, the Western Australian Party, Sustainable Australia, the Daylight Saving Party and then One Nation.

The micro-party alliance are consistently preferencing the Liberal Democrats second.

The Greens preferenced the Socialist Alliance, Animal Justice, Legalise Cannabis, Labor and then the micro-party alliance, with all other groups behind the Liberal Party.

Assessment
The first two Labor seats are safe, as is the first Liberal seat.

There is at least one more seat which would go to Labor or the Greens.

We were very close to a 4-2 left-right split in 2017, and it would have likely taken place if group voting tickets hadn’t corralled most small party votes to the Liberal Democrats. That could happen if Labor’s vote remains at the high levels of 2017. That would see 3 Labor, 1 Greens, 1-2 Liberals and potentially a right-wing minor party.

The Liberal Democrats seat is not at all safe. They have benefited from a lot of preferences, but they could easily be knocked out of contention earlier, either allowing another minor party to compete or dispersing the votes of those small parties amongst the bigger players.

Regional breakdown
Labor topped the vote in South Metropolitan, ranging from 28.8% in Bateman to 57.1% in Rockingham.

The Liberal vote ranged from 13% in Warnbro to 41.9% in Bateman.

The Greens vote ranged from 5.5% in Baldivis to 20.3% in Fremantle.

Results of the 2017 WA upper house election in the South Metropolitan region, by 2021 electorate

13 COMMENTS

  1. As with all the Upper House seats, a lot will depend on how much more Labor’s vote goes up from last election (& the Liberal’s vote goes down). Labor already did very well in 2017 but it seems reasonable to think they may do even better this time.

    I think there’s a plausible chance this seat could see Labor hold its 3 & the Greens also regain their one – which would deliver a 4-2 left right split, which could be significant in terms of the overall balance of the Upper House.

  2. The main reason the LDP did well was name confusion with the Liberals – they got about 4% here, compared with 1% everywhere else. They got the donkey vote position on the 2017 ballot paper, which won’t be repeated this time. If that hadn’t happened, the Libs would’ve won two seats straight off the bat, whichever party ended up with the preference snowball (probably Daylight Saving) would’ve had about 3% less, and the Greens would’ve won the last seat.

    Speaking of the DSP, they now call themselves the “National Liberals”, and Flux call themselves “Liberals for Climate” – somehow that’s legal. They’re blatantly trying to take advantage of the same name confusion that got Stonehouse elected. LfC have a good spot on the ballot in South Metro this time round, so they might be in the mix. They could end up taking a seat off the Libs instead of the Greens – if that happens, watch the real Libs sue all the pretenders out of existence.

  3. DSP’s attempt to call themselves “National Liberals” was shot down by the WAEC, but Flux got away with “Liberals for Climate”.

  4. I remember years ago Liberals for Forests had their name rejected because of the similarity to the Libs. I would have thought the same would apply to Liberals for Climate given the almost identical name.

  5. Jen- absolutely no idea initially.
    Group A Independents (WEST) are a filter ticket for the Lib Dems
    Group J Independents (ROWLEY) is far-right, preferences go to NMV, then One Nation.
    Group Q Independents (GLOSSOP) are a filter ticket for the Lib Dems
    Group V (LESLIE) are a filter ticket for the Lib Dems.
    Group W (FRANCIS) preferences Independents, then NMVP, then the next party with a chance is the Lib Dems.
    Group Y (HAMILTON) lodged no ticket
    Group Z (FOLEY) are a filter ticket for the Lib Dems, but will go to the Greens if a Lib Dem exclusion occurs.

  6. With Brad Petit heading the ticket, The Greens will win more votes in the city of Fremantle area as he is mayor of Fremantle. This alone will possibly push the greens to an upper house seat here. The seat the greens will win will be the LDP one as the LDP have a bad ballot paper draw this year. To add insult to injury for the Liberals they could end up winning only one seat here for a 4-1-1 split if newspoll is correct.

  7. There won’t be 4 Labor and a Green. Four overall left, sure, but not five. Remember, this region contains South Perth and Bateman. More likely is 3 Labor 1 Green on the left, 1 Lib and 1 (Druery WTF) on the right. (The micro will be an unpredictable mix of LDP (who were lucky last time), “Liberals for Climate” because donkey vote and sneakiness, and whoever else.

  8. If newspoll is correct the alp vote will go up 16.8% in this election. While that will be more concentrated in SW and NM the ALP vote here will still go up maybe 15%. There are seats where labor still has a lot to gain such as Jandakot, Southern River, Bicton, Bateman and South Perth, these suburban electorates will be happy about how Mark McGowan has protected them from COVID-19. The ALP vote could reach nearly 60% here, enough for 4 quotas. The spare votes could help Brad Petit reach a quota along with Socialist alliance preferences

  9. There’s little reason to think that the Newspoll will be reflected in the upper house vote. Please try to keep a lid on things.

    I’m surprised no-one’s mentioned that the No Mandatory Vaccination party gets a very good preference run in this region. I had the Lib Dems falling short for the sixth seat almost every time because NMV would always get ahead of them.

  10. It will if it is correct in the lower house because people often vote the same way in both upper and lower house. In the seat of Albany where Labor is often carried by Peter Watson Labor won more votes than the combined L/NP in the 2017 election on the current boundaries.

  11. @North by West – I also see a path for No Mandatory Vaccination.

    I can get them elected from a primary vote of about 1.0% using the ABC calculator, albeit that is using prior voting levels for other micros that might not even have the same name any more. They have two critical elimination points, one of which doesn’t directly involve them.

    (1) If the Shooters drop out before the Christians (which is likely), NMV need to have gathered enough preferences to be ahead of the combination of those two parties, because the Shooters have preferenced the Christians (!).

    (2) They need the Liberal Democrats to out-last One Nation, so that NMV can collect the One Nation preferences.

    The second of those looks plausible. The first one might be tougher – the Christians and Shooters could get about 3.5% between them. NMV would need to get to that level from a combination of their own vote, Legalise Cannabis, Great Australia Party, WAxit, Animal Justice, and two independents (Rowley and Francis).

    Cam Tinley is a perennial candidate. Last election (and in the Cottesloe by-election) he was running for the Micro Business Party. Until shortly before that, he was heavily involved in the Liberal Party – former division president, former national president of the Young Liberals, and twice a down-ticket candidate for the Liberals (Senate in 1987, Legislative Council in 1996).

  12. Dean – Yeah, I was able to get them elected with less than 0.5%. I think the biggest question for them will be how much BTL leakage they have against them from micro-party voters. If there’s not much, I don’t think they’ll have any difficulty getting past AC. And of the micro-parties and indies, it’s easier to see them getting a higher vote share (ie. closer to 1%) compared to many of the others, which would prevent them from being eliminated early.

    I thought Tinley’s name looked familiar.

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