Joondalup – WA 2013

ALP 3.3%

Incumbent MP
Tony O’Gorman, since 2001.

 

Map of Joondalup’s 2008 and 2013 boundaries. 2008 boundaries appear as red line, 2013 boundaries appear as white area. Local government areas are marked as green lines. Click to enlarge.

Geography
Northern Perth. Joondalup lies in the northeastern corner of the Joondalup council area, covering the suburbs of Beldon, Connolly, Craigie, Edgewater, Heathridge, Joondalup and parts of Currambine.

Redistribution
Joondalup gained parts of Currambine from Ocean Reef, which cut the ALP’s margin from 3.5% to 3.3%.

History
Joondalup was first created in 1983. It was abolished in 1989 and restored in 1996. Until the 2008 election, the seat had always been won by the party winning the election statewide.

Jackie Watkins held the seat throughout the 1980s for the ALP. In 1989 she moved to the new seat of Wanneroo, and lost in 1993.

The Liberal Party’s Chris Baker won the restored seat of Joondalup in 1996. After one term, he lost in 2001 to Tony O’Gorman.

O’Gorman has been re-elected twice, in 2005 and 2008. In 2008 he held the seat by a relatively marginal 4.3%, but suffered a minimal 0.8% swing while other Labor seats fell with bigger swings.

Candidates

Assessment
Joondalup is a very marginal Labor seat. O’Gorman managed to avoid a significant swing in 2008. This could mean that his personal vote will protect him in 2013, or that he is due for a bigger swing.

2008 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Tony O’GormanALP7,78841.8-3.8
Milly ZuvelaLIB7,08338.1+1.0
Anibeth DesiertoGRN2,43113.1+5.8
Nathan CliffordFF7113.8+0.6
Margaret LaundyCDP6003.2+0.8

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Tony O’GormanALP9,95053.5-0.8
Milly ZuvelaLIB8,65546.5+0.8

 

Polling booths in Joondalup at the 2008 WA state election. North in blue, South in green.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into two halves, divided into north and south.

The ALP won the south (44-35%) and the Liberal Party won the north (44-40%).

Voter groupALP %LIB %GRN %Total votes% of ordinary votes
South44.0334.5014.309,49763.28
North39.6643.8010.385,51236.72
Other votes39.4038.6513.903,604
Labor primary votes in Joondalup at the 2008 WA state election.
Liberal primary votes in Joondalup at the 2008 WA state election.
Greens primary votes in Joondalup at the 2008 WA state election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. My prediction: Considering the small swing against O’Gorman last time, he could hold this, although considering the swing towards the government in the polls, I’d put this down as a Liberal gain.

  2. Prediction: LIB Gain

    Rationale: The statewide swing, the relatively small swing in 2008 and the strong campaign being run locally by Jan Norberger.

  3. I lived in Joondalup for about 20 years, and O’Gorman can withstand quite a bit. He has a pretty good local profile, however this fight will be close. I agree with Melbourne Tory that the local campaign Norberger will do some damage, but I think O’Gorman can hold on.

  4. Liberal gain. O’Gorman did well to have a such a small swing against him at the last election while neighbouring Wanneroo (of similar ilk) copped a large anti-Labor swing. Joondalup already has a make up like a current marginal Liberal seat

  5. Seems to be a seat that goes with government, and had a much smaller swing than average last time.

    In the absence of any evidence of a tightening race, Liberals should win this fairly comfortably…

  6. Liberal gain – the predicted swing against Labor looks to be too great for even a long-serving MP like O’Gorman.

Comments are closed.