Forrestfield – WA 2013

ALP 0.2%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Waddell, since 2008.

Geography
Eastern Perth. Forrestfield mostly lies at the western end of Kalamunda local government area, along with northern parts of Gosnells local government area. The seat covers the suburbs of High Wycombe, Maida Vale, Forrestfield, Wattle Grove, Kenwick and parts of Orange Grove and Maddington.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Forrestfield was a new seat created at the 2008 election. The seat was created as a notional Labor seat, and was won by ALP candidate Andrew Waddell, despite a 4.3% swing.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Andrew Waddell is running for re-election. The Liberal Party is running Nathan Morton. The Greens are running Peter Burrell. The Australian Christians are running Troy Eikelboom.

Assessment
Forrestfield is the ALP’s most marginal seat in Perth. Waddell should benefit from a new personal vote, but if there is a significant swing to the Liberal Party this seat will be very likely to change hands.

2008 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Nathan MortonLIB8,15340.9+3.4
Andrew WaddellALP7,88439.5-6.1
Owen DaviesGRN2,48812.5+5.8
Lisa SaladineFF7473.7+1.1
Joel HammenCDP6723.4-0.6

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Andrew WaddellALP10,01750.2-4.3
Nathan MortonLIB9,91949.8+4.3

 

Polling booths in Forrestfield at the 2008 WA state election. North in blue, Central in orange, South in green.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: Central, North and South. Booths in the south are in Gosnells local government area, with the remainder in Kalamunda local government area.

The ALP won more votes in the south, while the Liberal Party performed better in the centre and the north.

The Greens vote was high in all areas, varying from 11.8% to 12.8%. When you consider these preferences, the ALP probably won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in each area.

Voter groupALP %LIB %GRN %Total votes% of votes
Central39.5642.1911.976,92334.71
North39.1541.2412.756,52732.73
South43.8835.5011.812,56612.87
Other votes37.2741.4713.343,92819.70
Labor primary votes in Forrestfield at the 2008 WA state election.
Liberal primary votes in Forrestfield at the 2008 WA state election.
Greens primary votes in Forrestfield at the 2008 WA state election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. Did anyone else notice how little this seat swung? Sure, it’s still Liberal now, but a 2.2% swing is very small compared to what plenty of other seats copped. Labor obviously did plenty of work here (not that it helped).

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