Belmont – WA 2013

ALP 6.7%

Incumbent MP
Eric Ripper, since 1989. Previously Member for Ascot 1988-1989.

Geography
Inner-eastern Perth. Belmont covers suburbs on the south side of the Swan River, including the suburbs Rivervale, Kewdale, Belmont, Cloverdale, Redcliffe, Ascot and part of South Guilford. The seat covers the entirety of Belmont council area. While there are other council areas overlapping Belmont, most of the seat’s population lies in the one council area.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Belmont has existed continuously since 1989, and previously from 1962 until 1974. The seat has always been held by the ALP.

The seat was won in 1989 by Eric Ripper.

Ripper had won a by-election in the seat of Ascot in 1988, after the resignation of former Deputy Premier Mal Bryce.

In 1989, Ascot was abolished and most of the population was put into Belmont.

Ripper served as Deputy Leader of the Opposition under Geoff Gallop from 1996 to 2001, and then Deputy Premier in the Gallop and Carpenter governments until 2008.

After the ALP lost power in 2008, Ripper became Leader of the Opposition. He held the position until early 2012, when he resigned and was replaced by Mark McGowan.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Eric Ripper is not running for re-election.

Assessment
A 6.7% margin would normally be secure enough for the Labor Party, but the loss of Ripper’s personal vote after 25 years, and a likely swing to the Liberal Party, could make this seat hard for the Labor Party to hold.

2008 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Eric RipperALP7,65043.5-10.6
Edward RichardsLIB5,95333.9+2.9
Louise JudgeGRN2,14312.2+4.5
John YarrowFF6773.9+3.9
John GleesonIND6033.4+3.4
Tasman GilbertCDP5433.1-1.0

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Eric RipperALP9,96256.7-5.0
Edward RichardsLIB7,59643.3+5.0

 

Polling booths in Belmont at the 2008 WA state election. North in blue, Central in orange, South in green.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: north, central and south.

The ALP topped the poll in all three areas, with the vote varying from 42.4% in the north to 44.8% in the south. The Greens vote peaked at 12.5% in the north, and was at its lowest at 10.9% in the south.

Voter groupALP %LIB %GRN %Total votes% of votes
North42.3934.8912.455,44530.99
Central43.5633.5911.814,27524.33
South44.8433.8310.933,93422.39
Other votes43.8332.8513.543,91522.28
Labor primary votes in Belmont at the 2008 WA state election.
Liberal primary votes in Belmont at the 2008 WA state election.
Greens primary votes in Belmont at the 2008 WA state election.

14 COMMENTS

  1. My prediction: Labor retain, although if the election result is something like 57-43, this could fall, with Ripper’s retirement. I still predict a narrow Labor victory here though.

  2. MT: never been to Cloverdale, eh? Belmont ain’t turning blue unless it’s an utter destruction job, NSW/Qld style, which won’t be happening. This is grungy eastern suburbs and is the bedrock of WA Labor…it survived 1993 and 2008 quite fine, it’s going nowhere now.

  3. I don’t make electoral predictions on the basis of what one part of the electorate looks like when I go there. I’m more than happy to wait and see on Election night rather than calling the result as certain before the votes are even cast.

  4. Can someone explain why are there still so many state labor seat (and people are saying that labor won’t lose many more at the up coming election), but only 3 federal seats??!!

  5. Bunny, that would be because federal seats cover more territory, and often consist of good territory for both parties.

    Take the federal seat of Hasluck, currently a marginal Liberal seat, for example:

    At the state level, Hasluck is largely comprised of safe Labor Midland and Gosnells, marginal Labor Forrestfield, and safe Liberal Kalamunda, along with small parts of other seats. While Kalamunda, Midland and Gosnells are never really seats to watch at the state level, put them together and it becomes very different.

    This also applies to the federal seat of Swan, another marginal Liberal seat – safe Liberal South Perth meets safe Labor Victoria Park, Belmont and Cannington. Never really of interest at state elections, but at the federal level, it becomes a hotly contested seat.

  6. Interesting that if 2008 results would be applied to federal boundaries, Swan, Hasluck, Canning and Cowan and Stirling would switch to ALP. State and Federal politics are different in WA. Many people who have new found affluence from the mining industry don’t seem to like the mining tax, carbon tax and possibly even the GST carve up across the States. Also, the left and right leaning subrbs in Perth are more mixed when being pulled into the large Federal seats causing the situation of many very Labor leaning areas having a Liberal MHR.

    Could not see Belmont swing to Liberal unless the demographics markedly change. While suburbs like Cloverdale are remaining relatively static, developments involving more upper market apartment style living is on the increase closer to the river

  7. MT:

    I don’t make electoral predictions on the basis of what one part of the electorate looks like when I go there.

    The whole place looks like that – I mentioned Cloverdale because I used to live there. Redcliffe, Belmont, Kewdale, same deal. If you ever visit Perth, catch the bus into the city (yes, there is one, nowhere near as good as Skybus), and you’ll get one of the oldest, rattliest, dieseliest buses that Transperth wouldn’t use anywhere but the eastern suburbs. It will wind its way through this electorate, and once you’ve ended up on St Georges Tce, you’ll want to be home again. The suburbs between the Armadale line and the airport aren’t pretty.

    On The Mark: Those flats on the river side of Great Eastern Hwy are pretty new, and no matter how Lib-voting the people moving there might be, they’ll still be annoyed at the constant roadworks (bloody Gateway WA). That area will probably end up as the only blue booth in Belmont, but not quite yet.

  8. Unlike some other “safe” Labor state seats, this one looks like it would still be solid Labor at federal level. Doesn’t seem like it’s going anywhere but ALP any time soon…..

  9. I am going to disagree with the common perception on the outcome of the seat and say the Liberals are going to pick it up since the former mayor of Belmont is running against a union nobody, sorry if I offended anyone.

  10. For what it’s worth, I am hearing talk on various blogs that both sides are putting a significant effort in both here and Cannington. Very hard to believe either will go Liberal though….

    Labor’s also now dragging out the “Vote Barnett, get Buswell” line, which suggests they’re admitting it’s gone and have switched to arse-saving mode…….

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