ALP 0.6%
Incumbent MP
John Kennedy, since 2018.
Geography
Eastern Melbourne. Hawthorn covers central parts of the Boroondara local government area, and specifically the suburbs of Hartwell and Hawthorn and parts of the suburbs of Burwood, Camberwell, Canterbury and Surrey Hills.
Redistribution
Hawthorn shifted to the east, taking in part of Surrey Hills from Burwood and Box Hill, and losing the remainder of Glen Iris to Ashwood. These changes slightly increased the Labor margin from 0.4% to 0.6%.
History
Hawthorn has existed as an electoral district continuously since 1889. In that time, it has been dominated by conservative MPs, and had only been won by the ALP at one election prior to the Labor win in 2018.
The seat was won in 1902 by George Swinburne. He ended up serving as a member of the Commonwealth Liberal Party before his retirement in 1913.
He was succeeded by William Murray McPherson. McPherson served as Treasurer in the Nationalist state government from 1917 to 1923, and as Premier from 1928 to 1929. McPherson resigned from Parliament in 1930.
He was succeeded by Nationalist candidate John Gray at the 1930 by-election. Gray served as Member for Hawthorn until his death in 1939.
His seat was won at the 1939 by-election by the United Australia Party’s Leslie Tyack. He lost the seat at the 1940 state election to independent candidate Leslie Hollins, who had links to the Social Credit movement.
Hollins held Hawthorn for two terms, losing in 1945 to the Liberal Party’s Frederick Edmunds. He also held the seat for two terms, until in 1950 the Liberal Party replaced him with his predecessor Leslie Tyack.
Tyack was defeated in 1952 by the ALP’s Charles Murphy, the only ALP member to ever win Hawthorn. He left the ALP in the split of 1955, and lost his seat at that year’s election to the Liberal Party’s James Manson.
After one term, Manson moved to the new seat of Ringwood in 1958, and was replaced in Hawthorn by Peter Garrisson. He was re-elected in 1961, but in 1963 he resigned from the Liberal Party, and lost his seat as an independent in 1964.
Walter Jona was elected as Liberal Member for Hawthorn in 1964. He served as a minister in the Liberal government from 1976 to 1982, and retired in 1985.
Hawthorn was won in 1985 by the Liberal Party’s Phillip Gude, who had previously held the seat of Geelong East for one term from 1976 to his defeat in 1979. He served as a minister in the Kennett government from 1992 until his retirement in 1999.
Since 1999, Hawthorn has been held by Ted Baillieu. Baillieu won re-election in 2002, 2006 and 2010.
Ted Baillieu was elected Liberal leader shortly before the 2006 election, and led the Coalition to defeat in 2006 and victory in 2010.
Baillieu served as Premier from 2010 until March 2013, when he resigned as Premier and Liberal leader under pressure from his party’s MPs. He retired at the 2014 election, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate John Pesutto.
Pesutto held Hawthorn for one term, losing the seat to Labor’s John Kennedy with a big swing in 2018.
- Faith Fuhrer (Animal Justice)
- John Kennedy (Labor)
- Ken Triantafillis (Family First)
- Richard Peppard (Liberal Democrats)
- Melissa Lowe (Independent)
- Nick Savage (Greens)
- John Pesutto (Liberal)
- Stratton Bell (Democratic Labour)
Assessment
Hawthorn has traditionally been considered a safe Liberal seat, but a cumulative swing of 17.1% to Labor since Ted Baillieu’s retirement in 2014 saw them grab the seat. It wouldn’t take much of that vote swinging back to restore the Liberal hold here, but if the Liberal Party doesn’t receive much of a bounce back Labor could hold the seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| John Pesutto | Liberal | 17,231 | 43.9 | -10.6 | 43.9 |
| John Kennedy | Labor | 12,646 | 32.2 | +8.0 | 32.9 |
| Nicholas Bieber | Greens | 7,167 | 18.3 | -3.1 | 17.7 |
| Sophie Paterson | Sustainable Australia | 960 | 2.4 | +2.5 | 2.4 |
| Catherine Wright | Animal Justice | 885 | 2.3 | +2.3 | 2.2 |
| Richard Grummet | Independent | 367 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.8 |
| Informal | 1,462 | 3.6 | -0.2 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| John Kennedy | Labor | 19,793 | 50.4 | +9.0 | 50.6 |
| John Pesutto | Liberal | 19,463 | 49.6 | -9.0 | 49.4 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The Labor Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, with just over 52% in the centre and east and 57% in the west. The Liberal Party narrowly won the pre-poll vote and won the remaining vote more convincingly.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.3% in the east to 21.5% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 17.0 | 52.1 | 9,807 | 22.7 |
| East | 12.3 | 52.2 | 6,135 | 14.2 |
| West | 21.5 | 56.9 | 5,796 | 13.4 |
| Pre-poll | 18.1 | 46.5 | 13,503 | 31.2 |
| Other votes | 19.3 | 49.6 | 8,018 | 18.5 |
Election results in Hawthorn at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
A couple of comments here to reply to:
I agree that Pesutto’s replacement was a step backwards and that the way to win elections is by focusing on economic issues. It makes you wonder what America would be like if that was the case (Vermont is a good example).
As for whether the Liberals can win in the Red Walls of our major cities like they did in the UK (the UK example is bad because Jeremy Corbyn was very leftist especially on foreign policy and was out of touch), I would say no but they could be less safe for Labor if a sensible Coalition government contributed to infrastructure there.
As for CPAC it’s based off an American conference of the same name which is a MAGA conference so the Australian one is similar. I wouldn’t say Hansonism is Trumpism though. Many One Nation voters aren’t bad people or extremists even if the party does also get the votes of extreme right people. In fact the voter bases of the Nationals and One Nation both didnt really oppose gay marriage much.
I think that something that worked in Victorian Labor’s favour is that they did what the NSW Coalition did when it comes to infrastructure just to a lesser extent. Look at Sydney’s metro for example. I’ve used it many times despite not living there and it’s great. That was a NSW Coalition government project. The list goes on for the infrastructure projects they did in NSW. They focused on that rather than American-style culture wars. Indeed, it was also a Coalition government that won the bid for the Women’s World Cup and World Pride.
Speaking of this, if Deeming is a true supporter of keeping womens sport safe like I am, why has she never (to my knowledge) spoken out for women’s sport or events like the WWC in Parliament?
Whilst trans issues are polarising, how overyhyped and overweighted is it in the state election debate?
This past federal election taught us that the electorate’s opposition to the voice to parliament didn’t lead to a backlash against Labor nor did it guarantee votes for the Liberals. The federal Liberals misconstrued the mood of this one particular issue. They were too optimistic about winning over No (to the voice) voters in working-class electorates. There was also a lot of weighting of greivance politics. People were pessimistic and dejected but it didn’t mean people would swing hard to the Liberals.
@Nimalan, you make a lot of sense the demographics and dynamics of the red wall seats. It must be mentioned that unlike in the US, disaffected working-class voters who normally vote left or centre-left have other options to vote for e.g. Greens, Victorian Socialists, and not just the main right-wing party.
@Trent
“Pesutto actually suffered a primary vote swing against him in 2022 compared to 2018, but preference leakage ensured he won the 2CP (which I think would have been even closer if the 2CP was vs the Teal).”
Yes, absolutely. I agree with you that a statewide swing against Labor, and loss of Labor incumbency would bring down the Labor primary vote and make it a Lib vs Independent contest (if a high-profile ‘teal’ independent runs).
Why are people even considering Moira deeming an asset to the party. She should save us all the headache and just defect to the DLP. The fact that she voted with Labor the majority of the time as an independent says it all . Far-right groups and evangelicals seeing the Liberal party as their political home in Victoria is extremely concerning .
With Pesutto in and deeming out i could see for the first time the Libs being electable . Only 4 years of my life Victoria has had Liberal government. When will they get their act together and realise they will NEVER win an election in Victoria advocating against abortion and trans rights – or giving promotions to those who do. Victorians are concerned with our failing economy, rampant crime and huge debt… not banning furries from schools 😂
And to assume that culture wars will win over the working class Red wall is offensive . There are much more pressing issues that affect us and while many are socially conservative it has never been something we take to the ballot box (excepting referendums)… like someone once said , its the economy stupid!
Nimalan, there could be potential for the Liberals to become competitive in red wall areas, however the Liberals could be more successful, if they focused on family values, also, many red wall areas have high levels of welfare dependency, which makes economic policy more important, but being economically left could be seen as being Labor lite, the very thing they hate moderates doing.
Up the dragons, when listening to Deeming, and If I didn’t know her politics, she sounds like member of the ALP.
@pencil there’s a story to that. She used to be a Labor member like Waaren Mundine. But left the party or in her words the party left her. They don’t identify with the Labor any more because it’s become more about activist causes then the worker.
Again I don’t think Deeming is truly a Liberal. She doesn’t fit with what Menzies set out when founding the party.
And I ask again, does Deeming really care about saving women’s sports and spaces or is it just a way to court right-wing votes by claiming to support women’s sports and women’s spaces?
John, I’ve heard Deeming talk about that, and the Liberals and the UAP before them successfully recruited people from the ALP, think Joseph Lyons, however Deeming doesn’t sound like a real Liberal person, and that is why her pet issues are at odds with the Liberal Party’s target voters.
@ Votante and Pencil
Great points raised. Chris Ulhman warned the Liberals in a Sky News Docummentary in Late 2023 that the No vote in the Voice was not a vote for the Liberals so they should get ahead of themselves. Brexit did realign UK politics. I also agree that there are other options for dissatisfied working class voters in Red Wall seats such as Greens, Family First, Victorian Socialists and independents like Paul Hopper. I also agree that areas like Meadow Heights (Greenvale) and St Albans have high degree of welfare dependency so if Labor made a campaign promise to send all families a $100 Coles Myer Gift voucher every months many of these poor voters will vote Labor over Libs as economic issues are more pressing it is a reflection of Maslow Hireachy of Needs more than anything. I often think many people in the Libs are DLP lite these days as they dont really care as much about economics rather social issues eventhough they accuse the moderates of being Labor lite.
The less affluent the voter, the less likely they are to take social issues into the ballot box as a priority.
Someone could be staunchly conservative on issues like same sex marriage, abortion and trans rights, but if they are working class they are more likely to vote for whoever they feel offers more tangible quality of life improvements (job security, wages, healthcare, welfare benefits, infrastructure) even if they have polar opposite social values.
This is the Liberals’ challenge in winning the “red wall” seats. They may share social values but these are overwhelmingly not affluent voters, they don’t have the luxury of focusing on moral & social issues when they are worried about job security, mortgage stress or securing a rental property.
Voters in affluent seats like Hawthorn are the ones who typically place more importance on social issues, they have the luxury of doing so, and they lean more socially progressive.
NP is right that the NSW LIberals were a good model of a successful state Liberal Party who were able to present as modern, in touch and able to get things done and make progress.
The Victorian Liberals have failed miserably at offering anything other than grievance and relentlessly opposing, which usually doesn’t translate to votes. They’re a mess, and it makes Labor’s attack lines like “We build and they block” far too easy.