Hawthorn – Victoria 2022

ALP 0.6%

Incumbent MP
John Kennedy, since 2018.

Geography
Eastern Melbourne. Hawthorn covers central parts of the Boroondara local government area, and specifically the suburbs of Hartwell and Hawthorn and parts of the suburbs of Burwood, Camberwell, Canterbury and Surrey Hills.

Redistribution
Hawthorn shifted to the east, taking in part of Surrey Hills from Burwood and Box Hill, and losing the remainder of Glen Iris to Ashwood. These changes slightly increased the Labor margin from 0.4% to 0.6%.

History
Hawthorn has existed as an electoral district continuously since 1889. In that time, it has been dominated by conservative MPs, and had only been won by the ALP at one election prior to the Labor win in 2018.

The seat was won in 1902 by George Swinburne. He ended up serving as a member of the Commonwealth Liberal Party before his retirement in 1913.

He was succeeded by William Murray McPherson. McPherson served as Treasurer in the Nationalist state government from 1917 to 1923, and as Premier from 1928 to 1929. McPherson resigned from Parliament in 1930.

He was succeeded by Nationalist candidate John Gray at the 1930 by-election. Gray served as Member for Hawthorn until his death in 1939.

His seat was won at the 1939 by-election by the United Australia Party’s Leslie Tyack. He lost the seat at the 1940 state election to independent candidate Leslie Hollins, who had links to the Social Credit movement.

Hollins held Hawthorn for two terms, losing in 1945 to the Liberal Party’s Frederick Edmunds. He also held the seat for two terms, until in 1950 the Liberal Party replaced him with his predecessor Leslie Tyack.

Tyack was defeated in 1952 by the ALP’s Charles Murphy, the only ALP member to ever win Hawthorn. He left the ALP in the split of 1955, and lost his seat at that year’s election to the Liberal Party’s James Manson.

After one term, Manson moved to the new seat of Ringwood in 1958, and was replaced in Hawthorn by Peter Garrisson. He was re-elected in 1961, but in 1963 he resigned from the Liberal Party, and lost his seat as an independent in 1964.

Walter Jona was elected as Liberal Member for Hawthorn in 1964. He served as a minister in the Liberal government from 1976 to 1982, and retired in 1985.

Hawthorn was won in 1985 by the Liberal Party’s Phillip Gude, who had previously held the seat of Geelong East for one term from 1976 to his defeat in 1979. He served as a minister in the Kennett government from 1992 until his retirement in 1999.

Since 1999, Hawthorn has been held by Ted Baillieu. Baillieu won re-election in 2002, 2006 and 2010.

Ted Baillieu was elected Liberal leader shortly before the 2006 election, and led the Coalition to defeat in 2006 and victory in 2010.

Baillieu served as Premier from 2010 until March 2013, when he resigned as Premier and Liberal leader under pressure from his party’s MPs. He retired at the 2014 election, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate John Pesutto.

Pesutto held Hawthorn for one term, losing the seat to Labor’s John Kennedy with a big swing in 2018.

Candidates

Assessment
Hawthorn has traditionally been considered a safe Liberal seat, but a cumulative swing of 17.1% to Labor since Ted Baillieu’s retirement in 2014 saw them grab the seat. It wouldn’t take much of that vote swinging back to restore the Liberal hold here, but if the Liberal Party doesn’t receive much of a bounce back Labor could hold the seat.

2018 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
John Pesutto Liberal 17,231 43.9 -10.6 43.9
John Kennedy Labor 12,646 32.2 +8.0 32.9
Nicholas Bieber Greens 7,167 18.3 -3.1 17.7
Sophie Paterson Sustainable Australia 960 2.4 +2.5 2.4
Catherine Wright Animal Justice 885 2.3 +2.3 2.2
Richard Grummet Independent 367 0.9 +0.9 0.8
Informal 1,462 3.6 -0.2

2018 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
John Kennedy Labor 19,793 50.4 +9.0 50.6
John Pesutto Liberal 19,463 49.6 -9.0 49.4

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.

The Labor Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, with just over 52% in the centre and east and 57% in the west. The Liberal Party narrowly won the pre-poll vote and won the remaining vote more convincingly.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.3% in the east to 21.5% in the west.

Voter group GRN prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Central 17.0 52.1 9,807 22.7
East 12.3 52.2 6,135 14.2
West 21.5 56.9 5,796 13.4
Pre-poll 18.1 46.5 13,503 31.2
Other votes 19.3 49.6 8,018 18.5

Election results in Hawthorn at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.

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807 COMMENTS

  1. The Danger for the Libs is that if Moira deeming loses preselection she will be more of a loose cannon. I think Peta Credlin/Sky News will advise Renee Heath, Bev Macarthur etc to fight from within and sabotage the party if needed.

  2. @Nimalan, I think so too. This might make Brad Battin do something to save Moria Deeming for fear of the Sky News backlash. It’s not just because he got her vote at the leadership spill.

  3. Sky News after dark can scream and shout but will anyone be actually listening? The federal election showed they are just a conservative echo chamber. Family First would have been a better fit for Moira Deeming and Renee Heath from the get go. If they are pushed out it would be a good thing.

  4. @Redistributed this has been my point for a while, and when it comes to the extremes of politics they don’t actually seem to care about the issues they claim to, it’s just to garner votes of the clueless minority. Again I’m yet to see the activist that was at the Let Women Speak about rally advocate for women’s sports or spaces unless it involves trans women, whereas I speak about both.

  5. If Moira Deeming is pushed out then my question is why is Pesutto not leader. the only reason why Battin is leader is due to Conservative faction.

  6. Jess Wilson probably would make a good alternative as leader. Recent events have rendered Battin’s leadership almost untenable and John Pesutto becoming the leader again would just create a Rudd-Gillard-Rudd situation

  8. Is there a chance another leadership spill is imminent?

    Furthermore, would Pesutto potentially challenge for it? He might be feeling emboldened knowing the party does have confidence in him and some people may see him as a better alternative to Brad Battin.

  10. Moira Deeming is a classic example of why activists make bad politicians in broad based parties. Activists fixate on one issue and that is more important than broad policy responses, team playing and winning elections. The Labor Party is better than the Libs in weeding them out before they get close to a preselection. It also seems that Moira Deeming activism has moved on from Trans issues to hunting down John Pessutto and inflating her own importance. She should also call a repair man to get her political antennae fixed or have some installed.

  11. You would think Moira will just be happy that the property developer was reimbursed if she truly wanted the party to unite and move on she could have called herself for the party to pay out the costs.

  12. Why will safe alp seats return liberals?
    Ms Deeming does not understand the harm she is doing to her own party !
    She is operating outside her party … to try and bankrupt her previous leader…. wow. A party with this does not deserve to govern as they cannot govern their selves. $2m wow

  13. I should just flag that someone is trying to post offensive comments under other’s names. If someone could let me know if you see something get through, that’d be great. So far the system is working.

  14. usually the posts are linked to the email provided. so unless they have that they shouldnt get tbrough

  16. Yes you are correct but Liberal members launched a challenge yesterday to stop the funds going ahead

  17. @nimalan to be honest i dont oppose the loan. it costs the liberal party nothing and actually will net us about $1,000,000 in interest and it saves the cost of by election that we could actually end up losing and would bar him standing for parliament due to the bankruptcy clause

  19. Nicholas, it would be foolish for the Victorian Libs to try another leadership switch. It would only highlight their instability just like Rudd-Gillard-Rudd for Labor federally.

    Battin seems decent and although he has the same background as Dutton (ex-police officer and from the right/conservative faction), he appears to be avoiding the anti-woke, culture war rhetoric that the federal Coalition and Liberal Party campaigned on.

    Ultimately, I think Battin if he stays on as leader until the election would be like Peter Debnam (NSW 2007) or John Paul Langbroek (Queensland 2009), being able to make modest gains but falling short with Labor still winning a small majority.

  20. @ Nicholas
    I dont think the timing suits Pesutto for now. The Liberal party is going through a big internal debate about the notion of realignment which means it will be better for Pesutto to stay quiet for now. Even if the Moira Deeming issue did not occur i still think the Liberal party would be divided. The right faction feels the moderates are too focused on the Eastern suburbs/Sandbelt and trying to win the same path to government to 2010. Remember even in late 2022 Pesutto only beat Battin by 1 vote so the right faction never believed he was the Messiah in the first place.
    @ Yoh An, While Battin maybe quiet on culture wars/many in the Victorian Liberals will bring it up

  22. I can’t see any reason Battin will be rolled as leader. If most of the backlash against him is from the more extreme figures in the conservative faction who feel “betrayed” at him facilitating a bail-out of Pesutto, who else would the conservative faction put up who would be palatable and get enough support from not only the moderates but those more in the middle?

    The moderate faction probably know they aren’t getting one of theirs (like Wilson) up in a vote, so Battin would be the least-worst option for them.

    Unless their polling completely tanks in the next 6 months, they’ll just stick with him. And it won’t. I think the Liberals’ polling will remain relatively stable. That is, a position that is much improved compared to the 2018 & 2022 landslides against them, mostly just became Labor’s popularity has tanked compared to that period, but still short of being enough to form government (much like 2014).

    The Coalition will probably wind up with around 40 seats which is a significant +12 improvement. And in that scenario, whether Labor govern in majority or minority will probably depend on whether or not the Libs direct preferences to the Greens in seats like Richmond, Northcote & Footscray (and maybe even Melbourne).

  23. @ Trent
    I think you are spot in. The Moderates know they will not get one of theirs so they will just allow Battin. However, i do think Battin could be sabotaged by leaks from the extreme right. For the Libs to win government they need a statewide TPP of around 53% which they havnt got since the 1990s at either level of government. This due to a smaller proportion of Victorians living in the Eastern suburbs. I can see a scenario for the Coalition to even get close to 52% TPP but fail to win government if Labor has managed to sandbag 5 of the 17 seats that they need to win. The other option is if they are willing to run dead and allow a Dai Le style indepedent to win a couple of red wall seats and form a minority government a bit like how Bracks formed a minority with rural indepdenents in 1999 in seats Labor could never win.

  24. @Trent, I agree, it doesn’t look like Battin will be removed as leader. And if they did remove him it would make the party look unstable.

    @Nimalan, I think if perhaps there are smaller swings to the Liberals in non-key seats (i.e. safe Labor seats) but a big swing to them in key seats and safe seats then there is a chance that the Coalition can win government with less than 53% TPP, albeit that would be difficult.

    For example if there is a +12% swing in the Eastern Suburbs but only a +3% swing in the Western Suburbs then perhaps maybe. It’ll also be interesting to see where the four Geelong seats fit into this too.

  25. Battin and the Coalition need a net gain of 16 seats for an absolute majority. This assumes Prahran and Hawthorn don’t flip and I think it’s possible that one of them will. For the record, Kennett’s Coalition gained 19 seats in 1992.

    An 8% uniform 2PP swing in 2026 would do the job but because of the varied political and electoral landscape, there will be huge differences in swings and seats may not even go in the same direction. Labor seats on the pendulum with margins below 8% (vs Lib) include a mix of red wall seats (Melton, Greenvale, Niddrie) and eastern Melbourne seats with some regionals (Ripon, Eureka).

  28. @ Votante
    I would still count Prahran as a Greens seat as i compare swings to the general election not by-election. Which is why i kept saying Aston should be counted as Liberal seat before the election. For that reason i say Aston was gained at the 2025 general election by Labor so if Rachel Westway is re-elected in Prahran it is a Liberal gain. For that reason Libs need to gain 17 not 16 seats to gain a majority government. The Greens are not going to form government with them so if they dont get 17 they need Dai Le style independents to win Red Wall seats. If they win 19 seats like Kennnet did in 1992 they will get a two seat majority
    @ Nether Portal, that is a possible scenario but that requires big swings in seats like Eltham, Macedon, Bellarine etc above the 8% uniform swing statewide. They will need to win all Eastern Suburbs seats including Monbulk which they did not win in 2010. The only seats which could see a small swing to Labor are very poor seats such as St Albans, Broadmeadows, Thomastown and parts of Greenvale (Meadow Heights) were lockdowns are less of an issue and there is some correction with poor ethnic voters going to Greens/Victorian Socialists rather than right wing minors. The Libs also need to be prepared for a Bundaberg Scenario so need to be prepared to win seats further up the pendulum.

  29. For the Coalition, a nightmare scenario is that they get swings in “the wrong places” i.e. their own seats or safe Labor seats. I wouldn’t underestimate Labor’s party machine and its ability to stage a massive turnaround or sandbag effectively once they switch into campaign mode. I’ll use federal Labor as an example even though it is a completely different government. Last summer, federal Labor was staring down the prospect of minority government and maybe even losing. They figured themselves out and ended up increasing their majority.

    @Nimalan, in 2026, a three-way contest will likely emerge in Prahran. There’s commentary in the Prahran thread that point to it as a likely loss to either the Greens or Labor.

    In some cases in Labor’s red wall, a local version of Dai Le could pose a risk. I agree that such independent candidates, if successful could help the Coalition form a majority.

  30. @ Votante
    Yes getting swings in the wrong places is a an issue. It happened even in 2010 when Libs got a 12% swing in a seat the already had Ferntree Gully. Have a look at the pre2010 election pendulum (link below) and you will notice even though Libs did get a narrow majority they did not automatically win the first 12 on the pendulum so they had to go up to Carrum on 6.7% to win as they failed to win Ripon, Bendigo East, Ballarat West and Ballarat East which had lower margins. If the Libs fail to win any of the first 17 on the pendulum then they need to get swings beyond 8.0% in some seats.
    I think a Dai Le Style independent such as Joseph Youahana if he chooses to run in Greenvale and Libs run dead could win

    https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/vic2010/vicpendulum

  31. The libs won’t win prahran at the general election the combined left vote will overcome it labor likely won’t win either it will be a greens win probly 54-56 tcp against westaway. I can’t see the libs winning more then 46 seats max if they have a really good night.but atm I’m gonna say labor/greens minority govt depending on lib prefernces

  32. Today’s polling is not good for the Victorian Libs they are now behind in the TPP.
    Kos Samaras pointed that Libs are doing badly in growth areas with ethnic communities. At best the Coalition is only polling 38% primary and Labor has increased its primary vote.

    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/new-polling-puts-victorian-labor-on-track-to-secure-historic-fourth-term-with-support-for-coalition-falling-amid-string-of-controversies/news-story/3e2f02d9cdb1f136e1a2862a5485967f

  33. The Australian’s Newspoll shows a 2PP of 53% for Labor.

    @Nimalan, even if the Coalition gets 48.5% on 2PP and they’re doing badly in growth areas, they’ll still get a statewide swing. The question is – where will the swings to the Coalition be?

  34. @ Votante
    According to Kos Samaras, the Liberals are doing best among older and less diverse voters. Areas with high % of older white/european voters so possibly Niddrie, Sunbury, Evelyn, South West Coast, Nepean, Hastings, Sandringham, Narracan and the National party held seats will have the biggest swings IMV. i think nearly all seats will still swing to Coalitions. The only seats i can see swinging to Labor on TPP terms will be St Albans, Greenvale, Broadmeadows and Thomastown as anti-lockdown backlash is partly reversed especially among Muslims and there is an increase in support for Greens/Victorian Socialists and reduced support for minor parties/indepedents.

  35. RE: Votante’s comment from 28 June about the nightmare scenario for the Coalition getting swings in the wrong places, Kos Samaras’ comments that are quoted in that Sky article indicate that the polling is pointing to that exact scenario.

    Here is his quote:

    “Labor is racking up support in fast-growing urban electorates within diverse Melbourne and highly educated constituencies,” he said.

    “While the Coalition is piling up votes in ageing, shrinking seats they already hold.”

    If a lot of the increase in Coalition support (compared to 2022) is coming from rural/National seats, the Mornington Peninsula and seats like Malvern, Sandringham & Brighton, that’s really not going to help them win at all.

    Labor racking up support in “highly educated constituencies” also spells trouble for the Liberals in Hawthorn; but is probably also worrying for the Greens in seats like Prahran, Richmond & Melbourne.

  36. @ Trent
    if Labor is gaining support in fast growing diverse communtiies such as Melton, Tarneit, Werribee, Cranbourne and Point Cook then breaking the Red Wall will be hard. Battin was elected on the belief the would create a new Liberal heartland in the outer suburbs.

  37. i think the polls will tighten as we get closer to the election and labors majority will shrink to a razor thin one at best and minority govt or the possibility of an upset at worst. as it gets closer people will start to hold th e allen govt to account.. of course the libs have to out forward a viable alternative in order to differentiate themselves from labor in order to be able to sway voters. going labor lite will not help them win seats

  38. id also expect the nats to contest ripon and maybe eureka given their success in Bendigo at the Federal Election. also they might target jacinta Allens seat of Bendigo East. The greens will probably target Footscray given their success at the federal election in Fraser

  39. @ John
    interesting. When you express concern about being Labor Lite are you able to share thoughts on what issues Brad Battin can express a greater contrast with Labor so there not Labor Lite?

  41. I absolutely wouldn’t say the Liberals were “Labor-lite” at the 2018 state election. There was a stark contrast. They went to that election focused on crime & culture wars while Labor went to it promising a big infrastructure agenda and promoting significant social reforms that the Liberals vehemently opposed.

  42. @ John
    I did not say Brad Battin was Labor lite but i saying what is a good point of difference. Kevin Rudd made climate and workchoices a point of difference in 2007 and won.
    I would not say 2018 was Labor lite for example
    1. Libs opposed Labor’s climate policies
    2. Libs opposed Safe Schools program
    3. Libs proposed a new coal fired power station
    4. Libs ran a right wing campaign on African gangs

    in 2022
    1. Libs campaigned against lockdowns
    2. Libs preferenced far right cookers
    3. Libs put Daniel Andrews face on their own HTV so they can personally attack him
    4. Libs ran add showing violent anti-lockdown protests
    5. Libs ran hard in Red wall especially Werribee and Melton so i dont think they were Labor lite at all in 2022 and especially 2022.

  44. sry typo i meant last election.

    @trent infrastructure used to be the libs strong point. and is usually a vote winner however labors SRL is snding the state broke and i tihnk most people are reasling that.

    Kevin Rudd didnt have to do anything to win that election John Howard lost it Workchoices was an utter failure and people only start to care about climate change when the economy is going well. so after the GFC people cared about it less and the bottom line became the core issue. same with the 2022 election that was targeted around CoL and climate but in 2025 climate was no longer an issue as it was all about the CoL crisis that the libs failed to capitalise on and threw away a chance to topple a first term government or at worst reduce them to a depp minoriy govt.

  45. also putting Dan Andrews face on the posters only worked in places where he was already hated and places where labor was too safe to lose.

  46. @ John, So could Trans issues help break the Red Wall as they have a lot of religious voters especially Muslims.

  47. Nimalan
    Trans issues. Frankly No. It is at best a niche issue that activists obsess about – and think everybody else should obsess about – but most of the population are more concerned about the bread and butter issues. Niche issues like that are the ultimate rabbit hole that the Liberal Party can get sucked into for no gain – Moira did you hear that??
    On Muslim votes – the Greens and VS and Muslims are very strange bedfellows as Palestine is probably the only linking issue. On social policy they are miles apart.

  48. The NSW Liberals did an excellent job with infrastructure. In Victoria you’d have to go back to the City Loop to find a time when infrastructure resembled anything close to a strong point… The Kennett government only built toll roads and the Baillieu/Napthine era invested in nothing.

    And to be fair, the Bracks & Brumby era didn’t contribute much either, which is why Andrews’ infrastructure agenda was so popular. It was seen as a long overdue catch-up, now transforming into a vision for the future to ensure we’re not in that same situation in another 30-40 years’ time.

    The SRL will be vital, it’s not just about transporting people from Cheltenham to Box Hill, it’s about transforming how the city arranges itself and moves about, and underpins a significant change in planning overall – from unsustainable car dependent sprawl to PT oriented urbanism.

    Yesterday’s Victorian polls showed 59% support and only 32% opposition to the SRL; this is after a 2024 poll had 43% support and only 27% opposition (with a much larger ‘undecided’), so I don’t think it’s accurate to say “most people” don’t want it. The media has portrayed it as such but successive polls asking about it have indicated the opposite. The loudest voices are always those who oppose.

  50. @ Redistributed
    Like you i dont think the average person focuses on Trans Issues and are more interested in bread and butter issues. However, i keep hearing that people like Pesutto were “Labor Lite” day in day out but when i ask for example so one gives me a single policy that they wished he did differently. Why did Pesutto loose the job on an issue that the vast majority of Victorians dont care about?
    The Libs including under Pesutto attacked Labor over economic policy such as debt, cost blowouts, commonwealth Games and oppose SRL so on economic issues they were never “Labor Lite”.
    With respect to Muslim voters i think VS more than Greens appeal to Muslims due to their left-wing economic policy and anti-elite rhetoric many areas with large Muslim communities are Low SES. I agree they are far apart on religious based social issues such as LGBT ones but i think Muslims dont really care about Welcome to Country, Indigenous flags, Treaty, Voice etc

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