Pascoe Vale – Victoria 2014

ALP 18.5%

Incumbent MP
Christine Campbell, since 1996.

Geography
Northern Melbourne. Pascoe Vale covers northern parts of the City of Moreland, specifically the suburbs of Coburg North, Hadfield, Oak Park and Pascoe Vale and parts of the suburbs of Coburg, Glenroy and Pascoe Vale South.

Map of Pascoe Vale's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Pascoe Vale’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Pascoe Vale’s northern boundaries underwent some changes, losing Gowanbrae to Sunbury and gained parts of Glenroy and Hadfield from Broadmeadows. These changes increased the Labor margin from 17.8% to 18.5%.

History
Pascoe Vale has existed in two incarnations, first for a single term in the 1950s and then again since 1985. In that time it has always been held by the ALP.

The original Pascoe Vale was created for the 1955 election, when it was won by the ALP’s Arthur Drakeford. He had previously held the seat of Essendon for one term in the 1940s. The seat was abolished after only one term.

Pascoe Vale was recreated in 1985, and was won by the ALP’s Cyril Edwards. He had previously been Member for Moonee Ponds and Ascot Vale, serving continuously from 1967 until his retirement at the 1988 election.

In 1988 Pascoe Vale was won by Deputy Mayor of Coburg, Kelvin Thomson. He served as Member for Pascoe Vale until he resigned in March 1996 to contest the federal seat of Wills. The federal election was held only four weeks before the Victorian state election, so no by-election was held. Thomson has served as Member for Wills ever since, and served as a shadow minister prior to the ALP winning government in 2007.

Pascoe Vale was won at the 1996 state election by Christine Campbell. Campbell served as a minister from 1999 to 2010, and was re-elected at the 1999, 2002, 2006 and 2010 elections.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Christine Campbell is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Pascoe Vale is a very safe Labor seat.

2010 election result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Christine Campbell Labor 18,79553.73-6.5354.73
Claude Tomisich Liberal 9,82328.08+4.6327.07
Liam Farrelly Greens 5,68316.25+4.0315.90
Alf HickeyIndependent6791.94+1.941.74
Democratic Labor0.36
Other independents0.20

2010 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Christine Campbell Labor 23,73867.80-4.9868.50
Claude Tomisich Liberal 11,27232.20+4.9831.50
Polling places in Pascoe Vale at the 2010 Victorian state election. Coburg in yellow, Glenroy in blue, Pascoe Vale in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Pascoe Vale at the 2010 Victorian state election. Coburg in yellow, Glenroy in blue, Pascoe Vale in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Pascoe Vale have been divided into three areas, named after the three main suburbs in the electorate: Coburg in the south-east, Glenroy in the north-west, and Pascoe Vale in the centre.

The ALP won a large majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 66.7% in Pascoe Vale to 73% in Coburg.

The Greens vote ranged from 11.4% in Glenroy to 22.9% in Coburg.

Voter groupGRN %ALP 2PP %Total% of votes
Glenroy11.3768.0912,56033.27
Coburg22.9173.018,33622.08
Pascoe Vale13.5766.657,06118.71
Other votes17.4165.679,79125.94
Two-party-preferred votes in Pascoe Vale at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Pascoe Vale at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Pascoe Vale at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Pascoe Vale at the 2010 Victorian state election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. My seat.

    Liz Blandthorne is running a pretty visible campaign for such a safe seat. I guess being a new candidate she wants to get her face out there. Nothing from the Liberals at all (not that I’d expect much in this seat). It seems they don’t even have a candidate yet?

    It’s a bit annoying the redistribution ended up splitting Glenroy in half. Would have been better giving all of Glenroy to Broadmeadows, and putting Strathmore North in this seat.

  2. Liz Blandthorne sent out a pamphlet so big you could just about frame it and hang it on the wall. Lots of focus on social justice/cultural diversity type stuff, which suggests Labor are worried about the Greens here.

    That said, have seen and heard absolutely nothing from the Greens here. Not even a brochure in the mail. Even the Socialist Alliance seem to have been more active…..

    A few leaflets for Khoo appearing now, with the focus almost entirely on local public transport…..

  3. Liz Blandthorn is extremely socially conservative; she will be a persistent fighter for pro-life family values and traditional marriage in the next parliament.

  4. This seat seems to be reserved to the real Catholic social conservative (as disticnt from the SDA hacks) subfaction of the right Blandthorn I think lines up with Campbell on abortion rights, marriage equality etc. A curiosity that her & Bronwyn Halfpenny are in the same party!

  5. @Mark Mulcair

    I can’t see a 12% increase in primary vote to reach second place let alone the 20% plus that would be required for the Greens to have a chance of winning the seat. Such a thing would be amazing.

Comments are closed.