Redcliffe by-election, 2014

February 22, 2014

Cause of by-election
Sitting member Scott Driscoll, elected in 2012 as a member of the Liberal National Party but sitting as an independent since March 2013, resigned from the Queensland Parliament on 19 November 2013, after the the Parliament’s Ethics Committee recommended his expulsion from the Parliament for contempt of Parliament in relation to fraud allegations. He has since been fined $90,000 by the Parliament.

Margin – LNP 10.1%

Geography
South-East Queensland. Redcliffe covers most of the Redcliffe peninsula in Moreton Bay local council area, specifically the suburbs of Kippa-ring, Redcliffe, Woody Point, Clontarf, Margate and Scarborough, as well as Moreton Island.

History
The seat of Redcliffe has existed since the 1960 election. It was dominated by conservative parties until 1989, and has been dominated by the ALP ever since.

The seat was first won in 1960 by Jim Houghton. He was first elected as an independent and after a brief stint as a Liberal he joined the Country Party in 1963. He held the seat until his retirement in 1979.

The seat was won at the 1979 by-election by Liberal candidate Terry White. White was appointed to the ministry in 1980. He became the leader of a group of Liberal MPs critical of Joh Bjelke-Petersen and their own party’s closeness to the Nationals. In 1983 he led a Liberal rebellion which resulted in his election as Liberal leader and the dissolution of the coalition. In the ensuing election a majority of Liberals lost their seats and the Nationals won a majority in their own right.

White stepped down as Liberal leader following the disastrous 1983 election and held Redcliffe until his retirement in 1989.

Ray Hollis won Redcliffe for the ALP in 1989. He became Speaker of the Legislative Assembly in 1998 and retired in 2005. This triggered the 2005 Redcliffe by-election. At the ensuing by-election the ALP lost the seat to Liberal candidate Terry Rogers, who won with an 8.4% swing.

Rogers only held the seat for one year, and lost at the 2006 election to the ALP’s Lillian van Litsenburg. She retained the seat at the 2009 state election.

In 2012, van Litsenburg lost to the LNP’s Scott Driscoll.  Driscoll had been president of the United Retail Federation, and his political career quickly came undone due to allegations he misled the Parliament over his business interests. He was suspended from the LNP in March, and resigned in November 2013 under the threat of expulsion.

Candidates
The LNP is running Kerri-Anne Dooley, who ran for Family First in Redcliffe in 2012. The ALP is running former federal member for Petire Yvette D’Ath, who lost her seat at the 2013 federal election. The Liberal Democratic Party, who are not registered for state elections in Queensland, are running Gabriel Buckley as an independent. Also running as independents are Len Thomas and Talosaga McMahon.

Assessment
The LNP government is substantially less popular than it was at the time of the last election, and when you factor in the circumstances of the vacancy, this seat could well be vulnerable. Having said that, a 10% swing will still be a big ask for the Labor Party. It’s also possible that the Palmer United Party will put in a strong effort – they are unlikely to win, but it’s hard to predict what a high PUP vote would do to the race.

2012 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Scott DriscollLNP13,99149.24+14.94
Lillian van LitsenburgALP8,73930.76-12.26
Bevan CollingwoodKAP2,4848.74+8.74
Noel ClothierGRN1,9126.73+0.61
Kerri DooleyFF1,2884.53+1.91

2012 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Scott DriscollLNP15,42760.10+15.67
Lillian van LitsenburgALP10,24239.90-15.67
Polling places in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election. Kippa-Ring in green, Redcliffe in blue, Scarborough in yellow, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election. Kippa-Ring in green, Redcliffe in blue, Scarborough in yellow, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Redcliffe have been divided into four areas: from north to south along the coast, these are Scarborough, Redcliffe, and South, with Kippa-Ring lying inland.

The LNP won all four areas, with their LNP primary vote ranging from 45.8% in Redcliffe to 56.7% in Scarborough. The ALP vote ranged from 26% in Scarborough to 32.5% in Redcliffe.

The third-polling candidate came from Katter’s Australian Party. The KAP candidate’s vote ranged from 6.8% in Scarborough to 10.7% in the south.

The ECQ does not provide booth-level two-party-preferred figures. Estimates have been made, based on preference flows across the electorate. These estimates give the LNP a majority in all areas, ranging from 57.4% in Redcliffe to 66.5% in Scarborough.

Voter groupALP %LNP %LNP 2PPTotal votes% of votes
South32.2346.8058.06631422.22
Redcliffe32.4545.8457.36476716.78
Scarborough26.0556.6866.51470716.57
Kippa-Ring31.3747.8359.11461016.22
Other votes31.0049.6360.07801628.21
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
LNP primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
LNP primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
KAP primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
KAP primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.

60 COMMENTS

  1. 8 per cent katter is strong for an urban seat. I would say the bulk of that will
    Be the pup vote considering the recent fed election pup and kat votes. The question is how much of the lnp vote drops and whether it goes to labor or pup. Preferences r optional.

  2. There is no way the LNP will hold this seat. I’m calling it for labor now. Between the Driscoll affair and the general “give the government a kick in the pants” sentiment, labor is looking at a swing of 20+% to them easily. If it were a state election, the swing would be far more moderate as government is at stake.

  3. Decent chance that Labor will win it back. Remember the Miranda by-election in NSW. Admittedly I’m expecting the Firefighters Union to play a significant role…..

    Still it is hard to say what PUP will do….

  4. Surely a PUP candidate would draw more voters from the Libs than ALP and then exhaust? I would have thought that a PUP candidate would be good for Labor.

  5. Those thinking PUP voters will help Labor need to look at the 2012 result and the high KAP figure. Those KAP voters go directly to PUP (if they run). So the question is how much of the 49.24% of the LNP vote swings directly to Labor. If it goes to PUP a large amount will exhaust and Labor won’t close the gap.

  6. IS the Newman Regime holding off announcing the sell off of Department of Housing ie Housing Commission until after Redcliffe By-election

    Probable result is an increase in Minor Party and ALP vote nearly as big as the percentage increase in Electricity BIlls which we will get when Newman sells off Electricity generators if he is given a chance..

    ALP should reward Newman with Life membership of ALP for unswerving services to the return of an ALP government.

    What a choice Newman or Palaszczuk!

    Why have the LN P not dumped Newman? When faced with a major liability the ALP at least had the sense to get rid of it.

    Redcliffe can do the State a great service by showing what they think of Newman. This will probably result in Newman not contesting again.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  7. I somewhat agree with Ross that Labor should win back Redcliffe with a big swing, my only concern is D’ath. The fact she just lost an election and has upset a few of the locals in Redcliffe on local issues gives the LNP a free hit to say Labor is the “same old labor” and loves to recycyle their “has beens.” In saying that I hope D’ath wins but that’s just my analysis.

  8. Seems odd that PUP aren’t contesting, considering (at least as far as I know), they’re still contesting next year’s SA election.

    Will be interesting to watch, as Miranda in NSW revealed, people don’t like unnecessary by-elections, namely those caused by corruption or the sitting member pulling a “Screw you guys, I’m going home!” on their constituents.

    However, D’Ath is no Barry Collier. Have any other parties besides the LNP and Labor nominated yet? Or a strong independent?

  9. Almost seems like the perfect election for a strong independent. There’s no way LNP could win surely? Surely Driscoll will hurt the LNP given Newman publicly backed him and people would probably rather not vote Labor. A strong independent would be a huge chance here.

  10. I’ve also seen the list of candidates for the LNP, saw it on a leaked email. I can’t believe one has a background in nursing. How could a nurse live with herself running for the LNP with everything that’s been going on lately? Weird. I mean this is a democracy and gotta respect a person’s right to vote how they vote but seriously, I just find that so weird.

  11. I live in this electorate, hearing on the ground people are mad with the LNP, but feel their choice of candidate is a good one, great local candidate. Yvette D’Ath and Labor have both a negative and positive image. Some say she was a good Member for Petrie, but not very bright. I think Independent Len Thomas will get at least 10% of the vote (which would usually go to a PUP candidate). He’s a well respected former policeman. My guess is the seat will come to preferences, and with Queensland’s optional preferential system, either major party could win at this point with similar primary votes.

    The other thing people are saying is we may as well re-elect an LNP Member, at least they will be a voice in Government as opposed to Yvette or an Independent who will achieve nothing on the crossbenches or in Opposition. With the LNP’s overwhelming majority in the Legislative Assembly that surely must weigh on peoples minds.

  12. I can see how a nurse runs for the lnp, they had their eb settled first for a larger increase then any other sector of the public service

  13. Well electionlover if they choose to stick with LNP for those reasons then they get what they deserve. The Newman Goevrnment will lose at least 20-25 seats at the next election just because they will, and by that theory it’s easy to see the LNP are going to pick and choose what seats they want to hold. Wouldn’t surprise me if Redcliffe was one they’re happy to lose so why not put a Labor person in now to put up the fight against the LNP? You’ve gotten nothing off this government at the moment. At least if D’ath gets in now she can establish herself into state parly and when Labor one day gets back into power she may be a senior minister which will be great for Redcliffe.

  14. Queensland Observer-“Those thinking PUP voters will help Labor need to look at the 2012 result and the high KAP figure. Those KAP voters go directly to PUP (if they run). So the question is how much of the 49.24% of the LNP vote swings directly to Labor. If it goes to PUP a large amount will exhaust and Labor won’t close the gap.”

    I don’t necessarily think the KAP 2011 vote will automatically go to the PUP. A large chunk of the KAP vote in 2011 came from disgruntled blue collar workers who otherwise were Labor-leaning. I see that vote returning to Labor, rather than shipping to the PUP.

  15. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/14/labor-leads-poll-in-brisbane-by-election-dominated-by-public-health-policy?CMP=fb_gu

    Very strong poll for Yvette D’Ath.

    “A new Lonergan Research poll of 891 voters found Labor’s Redcliffe candidate Yvette D’Ath – who lost the federal seat in the same area at last year’s election – on a huge 53% of the primary vote, well ahead of the LNP candidate and former Family First candidate Kerri-Anne Dooley….

    More than half (59%) said they thought Campbell Newman’s LNP government had made the state’s health system worse – including 10% of those who said they would vote for the LNP. Only 23% thought the LNP government, elected in a landslide victory in 2012, had made the health system better.”

  16. Interestingly ALP are already out in ANZAC Av and Elizabeth St/ Snook St. BUt most interesting of all is Trade Union Massive Bill Board “They promised to slash the cost of living. THEY LIED
    Electricity Prices up 22.6% – Put LNP Last. http://www.not for sale.org.au.

    LNP Certainly did lie before last election and deserve the rear ender they are going to get in Redcliffe.

    THey promised not to sell off assets but within hours of winning election had closed down assets.

    Hopefully the defeat they are going to get in Redcliffe will bring some of the LNP to their sense and do to Newman what ALP did to Rudd.

    Problem is that both ALP & LNP are happy to sell off our assets when they are in government but oppose the sale when they are in opposition.

    We need a party that will proudly build electricity generators to push the cost of living down. Not one which will Tax electricity produced. Katter’s candidate for REdcliffe has not yet been announced but at last election KAP vote was 8.74% in Redcliffe. Lets hope it gets large enough to kick both Yvette D’Ath and Kerri-Anne Dooley into unemployment.

    The LNP members in adjoining electorates should know that it is not Scott Driscoll that is being defeated but Newman and the Liberals.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  17. I am not happy with what has happened in the Redcliffe electorate but what amazes me is how loud labour voters can yell when they are on the sidelines. The labour party put Qld back years financially and developmentally, why didn’t they demand their politicians to correct the damage while in power. Campbell Newman inherited a mess and sometimes getting out of a mess requires a little pain and hardship but at least he is trying to correct the damage. What use is a labour member who is on the sidelines (pulling faces & making a lot of useless noise) vote for someone who at least is a member of the team on the field and will have the power to effect the result of the game.

  18. Rubbish. Newman is making his own mess, cutting funding to health to give benefits to his mates in big business and mining. He runs the most secretive, authoritarian and dangerous goverment since Bjelke-Petersen.

    Labor tried to spread the wealth from the mining boom, Newman and his mates are doing everything to concentrate it.

    And as if this government isn’t enough of a right-wing loose cannon, they’ve endorsed a candidate who was involved in Family First! The good people of Redcliffe have their baseball bats ready…

  19. LNP Candidate and three young helpers doorknocking Clontarf area this morning. Candidate seemed to be active but her companions somewhat disinterested. No one took trouble to talk to me when I showed some interest in their activity.

    ALP invisible this morning other than some very well positioned Corflutes.

    Nothing however beats the Queensland Not For Sale Bill board on the way into Redcliffe “They lied”

    We still have to hear if Newman is selling off the Housing Dept. houses. Looking at Ben’s excellent maps there is a direct correlation between Housing Commission houses on Redcliffe Peninsula and a lower LNP vote.

    Possibly the higher Katter vote at the Southern end of the electorate is because they can see Eventide Home for the aged and can see some of the facilities that the Thatcherite Newmnanites want to sell off.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  20. Hear, Hear Pamela!!
    Labor all Noise and no go!!! newman been in for nearly two years, give the guy a chance.
    Glad to see him fixing up the mess!! At least the LNP candidate will probably have good morals!!

  21. “Good morals!” lol That is hilarious! Usually when it comes to the LNP that means bigotry and homophobia! Hiding behind religion for their own personal gains.

  22. Neither major part has morals
    The ALP and Greens are socially evil and LNP economically evil.

    Both major parties have proven to be liars.

    Remember all of the LNP promised prior to election to end the Civil Unions Legislation and when Bill to repeal the legislation put up by Katter’s Australian Party 100% of LNP voted in contradiction to the promise they made before the election. Regardless of what one thinks of the issue voting against what you promised to do is not “good morals”.

    I wold ask was the behaviour of Scott Driscoll an example of LNP’s good morals?

    All of us have been disappointed with the performance of some of the politicians we have supported at some time or other. The two major parties have shown over the years that they will do anything to get power.

    Newman has proven to be as trustworthy as Gillard.

  23. Andrew , doesn’t matter about the Civil Unions Bill because Marriage Equality will happen in Australia, if not now, very soon in the future. My relationship of 28 years is just as worthy as anybody else’s. The more GLTBI people are discriminated against the more we fight. We have been fighting for our rights all of our lives.This has proven to be the case in so many countries where referendums and ballots have been overturned against all of the odds. The best part is the more ‘religion’ gest involved with politics, the more the Australian public becomes focussed on a secular outcome. Australians don’t like busybodies, especially when it comes to their private lives! A third of the population has ‘no religion’ and that will drift upwards year by year. Just go into a lot of churches on a Sunday and look at how old the congregations are! Thanks to Fred Nile and co. for all of their help.

  24. will parliament sit before the Redcliffe by-election? Democracy is at stake. And looking at google it seems the Attorney General has responsibility for the Electoral Commission of Queensland. I wonder if he will allow 3 bikies to vote in Redcliffe? Now that will be interesting – under the law the manager of the polling places – ie Mr Bleijie – must be arrested and held without bail if he allows 3 bikies to congregate to vote at the same polling place. Who is the inspector in charge of police at Redcliffe? And who is the boss at Maroochydore? Will they coordinate things so that Mr Bleijie is arrested should there be 3 bikies in Redcliffe wanting to vote at the same polling booth? The law, sadly, is the law and under Vlad the impaler’s vampire laws. It would be marvelous to see the law policed the way it should be. does anyone know either senior police officers to coordinate things for the Redcliffe by-election?

  25. Brenton

    The issue of Civil Unions and SSM is a smokescreen to take our minds off important issues. Why Civil Unions is important is because every LNP member supported the position of abolishing Civil Unions went to an election promising to abolish them, won on that platform and then immediately voted other way when the issue was put to a vote. It shows that LNP can not be trusted. Not that Redcliffe will have much difficulty in understanding that the LNP can not be trusted.

    Yvette D’ath can hold her head up high over Redcliffe rail but both major parties can be shown to have lied over Rail this time. I recall hearing my friend Ray Hollis promising that the railway line would be commenced in the first term of the Goss Government. If he had resigned or crossed the floor and voted with the Coalition he may never have been Speaker but he would have been able to hold his head up high in the same way as all of the 1957 Queensland Cabinet bar the convicted tax cheat did.

    The simple fact is that the LNP and the ALP can not be trusted. They will promise anything to get power. Brenton the issue is one of honesty.Don’t get side-tracked by the issue of Civil Unions itself the issue is their dishonesty. Just as the ALP in total promised no Carbon tax but gave one. Neither of them can be trusted with the milk money ley alone being the government.

  26. I agree with Andrew the time is set or a change in Redcliffe. Neither major deserves or should be considered. The Bligh government was hopeless and left us in a crisis, and the increase in rail costs etc brought on by the sale of QR National will remain in electors minds for years.
    Premier Newman has shown clearly that he cannot be trusted – whether it was outright lies like the civil unions and asset sales or the dictatorial bikie laws, I think we need an alternative. Perhaps the KAP could do with another seat as they seem to be the best performers in George street and the ones Newman fears the most.

  27. @Andrew Jackson, how exactly are the Greens and Labor socially evil. I don’t like the Greens as I’m a moderate guy who votes Labor. I love the environment and want to look after it but I also don’t think we should be living in trees and living with candles. That’s why I dislike them but to call them evil is harsh. Unrealistic is probably a better word but in the end their beliefs aren’t designed to be evil or horrible, they are just naive and think they are being good people. It’s the same with asylum seekes, they think they are being decent human beings by wanting to open the gates. Same with IT, they think they by making it near impossible for workers to sack their staff they are saving people who may or may not be able to defend themselves. The nagtives aren’t something they think about. Whereas staunch right wing people actually do do evil. They don’t care who gets hurt or who they shit on to get what they want. They know what they are doing is wrong, they just don’t care.

  28. I would say the labour party has abandoned what it used to be to become what hte liberals no longer are.

    Way back when – Malcolm Fraser was the last of the liberal prime minsters, when liberal actually meant politically liberal instead of a con job. Liberal has become ultra right wing and labour moved to the right to take up the former liberal party spot.

    greens are where labour was in Gough Whitlams day.

  29. Tony is quite correct the Greens are where Gough Whitlam’s Labor Party was. Full of Trot’s Coms and Soviet supporting SPA members. BUT precisely what has either Gough Whitlam or Malcolm Fraser got to do with Redcliffe By-election?

  30. From this article here about the horror show that is the VLAD laws:

    http://www.rangenews.com.au/news/palmers-uap-backs-vlad-call/2150316/

    Mr Douglas said UAP had done polling and believed it would have run close to winning the seat, but under the optional preferential voting system did not want to run the risk of inadvertently helping the LNP over the line.

    So basically, they’re running dead to help Labor. Bearing in mind PUP (and KAP and the indies) are probably acting as an informal part of the opposition due to the pathetic state of Labor at the moment, that would make sense.

  31. Another conservative who cant be bothered actually reading what was said.

    Amazing if you actually read instead of just using the blinkered party view. “I would say the labour party has abandoned what it used to be to become what the liberals no longer are.” first line of my post.
    And then I discussed the political movement of the major parties over the last 40 odd years. The liberal party needs investigated by the ACCC for misleading advertising, one thing it hasnt been since Frasers time is liberal.

  32. Let’s debate which is the one true religion after this one. After that we can get to the redcliffe by-election. There should be enough time for all three.

  33. How the hell is high tax and pro big government intervention liberal. Modern labor as fraser liberals, pull the other leg.

  34. Andrew Jackson is quite wrong – certainly in the ACT the Greens the old radical left is just about non-existent – environmentalists, disgruntled ALP members and middle class opponents of the Coalition’s refugee policy, including quite a few church members – not sure what this has to do with Redcliffe but hey thought I would offer the correction

  35. I would guess If the result is close, the fact that many postal voters might not have had time to receive and return their ballots would make for very obvious grounds for a successful court challenge.

    Postal votes at general elections are good for the conservatives, but at by-elections people who would vote absentee or pre-poll out of area are most likely to also be having to vote by post. Out of area voters would be impacted the most, and I would assume that they may not be as strong for the LNP as general postal voters are.

  36. Andrew Jackson.

    The only way the ALP could have stuck to their no carbon tax promise was to lose power. The Greens who held the Senate, along with at least 2 of the Ind, wanted a carbon tax as a condition of supporting an ALP government.

    Are you saying that the ALP should have stopped negotiating because of this one promise?

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