South Brisbane – QLD 2020

*Ben this one needs amending with the sentence ‘Booths in South Brisbane have been divided into three areas: north, south and west.’ It should be West, Central and East.

Jackie Trad has done herself no favours here, and with the CFMEU pulling support, she really does seem gone here.

Prediction (August 2020): GRN GAIN

“South Brisbane has been held by Anna Bligh since 1995. “

I agree that Trad is a world of trouble. In addition to her various run-ins with scandal and the reduced profile, the LNP are planning to preference the Greens for the first time. Not easy to guess the impact of that (interestingly the Greens got a decent chunk of LNP preferences last time, against the HTV) but it doesn’t need to swing many to get the result. As a final factor, I reckon there might be close to a thousand new units built in West End since the last election. I think the Greens would expect to do well among the new voters.

The LNP preferncing the Greens impact will be harder to guess. If volunteers are banned from handing out how to vote cards at polling stations because of Covid. Interesting the Courier Mail just over a week ago has suggested that Jackie Trad is back in the game from secret polling. They went even as far to suggest the LNP primary vote is almost outpolling the Greens. If that’s the case it doesn’t matter where the LNP preferences go if the Greens fall into the third place. This seat may not be a foregone conclusion to the Greens if the pandemic sucks the political oxygen from the minor parties. Article below:

“Secret Labor polling in South Brisbane has the Greens vote tanking, meaning incumbent Jackie Trad is now firmly back in the race. Pundits say the LNP may even knock the Greens off for second spot on the primary vote, with Trad’s primary vote now being close to 40 per cent.”

https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/labor-win-will-border-on-crazy-gleeso/news-story/31cc021b323c06421de440adfb4c1748?fbclid=IwAR1JiY8K5oLl-4SajJ1UJqkG1XDtf15lg0vuv5DHWOQnszG4Z7T2GwqfjaU

Without an HTV card, Liberals will still preference Greens more strongly than with a Labor supporting HTV. Greens will win if they can beat trad on primaries. Labor are throwing everything at this seat and they could win using the same dark arts as Batman 2018, but it will be a lot harder during a general election where Labor will be trying to stem the tide of political realignment in the north with a conservative campaign (which will impact the whole state in terms of Greens ability to poach left wing voters)

Trad is gone unless Amy MacMahon finds her own campaign staff betraying her or at the centre of major scandal.

I think Jackie Trad will unfortunately retain regardless of LNP preference recommendation.

Surprising to hear Labor is throwing so much at a lost cause when there are so many other marginals at serious risk of falling to the LNP. At any rate, this is a very progressive seat and a gimme to the Greens given the way Trad has disgraced herself.

Poll came out showing Greens ahead of ALP 36-30 on primaries. That’s still in the range where Lib preferences are relevant, seat polls are unreliable, and nobody should rule out a dark turn for the campaign. However it seems like Labor are throwing good money after bad. Even from the “stop Greens” perspective they would be better off putting resources into McConnel and Cooper.

Also polls so far have suggested the LNP not doing well at all in inner city Brisbane, not that it amounts to any seats (unless Greens don’t give up on Clayfield after all). It’s hard to believe that the LNP nearly won Griffith last year.

GRN gain

John
Surely you are aware that Griffith was one of a very few seats in QLD where the LNP went backwards. Having said that, they could well take it next year, & the next redistribution will be lethal for Labor. definitely very interesting

BJA I would like to see Trad lose her seat but Trad is less of a liability to Wueensland than a Greens MP pulling Queensland even further to left than Trad would do.
The Liberals decision to preference Greens ahead of ALP amounts to a willingness to damage Queensland for base self interests.
South Brisbane is a seat with very dense residential accomodation. If COVID 19 was to get into community it is an electorate which could become a hot bed for virus.
Electorate will have a very low percentage of small business proprietors and a high percentage of wage earners. I would think that South Brisbane would have been one of the least Affected by COVID 19 in State. Public Sector workers make up a good percentage of employees and they have not suffered in crisis. They are more likely to agree with Palaszczuk strategy than private sector employees. I expect that Liberals will have a smaller level of obedience in following GHTV than is normally case. I have voted for coalition in past but I would never place Greens above ALP. In fact Libs are totally irresponsible in preferencing Greens.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/qld2020/southbrisbane2020/comment-page-1#comment-746642

What is the Liberal primary in that poll? If it is above the ALP primary, the LNP preferences won`t matter.

Tom – the numbers I’ve heard have the Libs in the low 20s, with the remainder being either undecided or 4th-party (not that there’s anyone yet). If (and it’s a BIG if) the poll is accurate and the undecideds split proportionately, that puts the Greens’ 3PP in the low-mid 40s – so just the same LNP prefs split as last time might be enough.

I figure that in the end we’re going to see about 25% LNP 3PP (and third place). Of that, 10 points each are going to Trad and McMahon and 5 points are going where the HTV says.

I can see an argument for why last election’s preferences might be a poor indicator if you accept that politics is generally more polarized and the modern LNP voter tends to be more invested in the culture wars/typical Greens Derangement Syndrome you see on the internet.

I can’t see mathematically how Jackie Trad can hold on here, even if first preferences stayed at 2017 levels. The Greens did incredibly well in the recent local elections and there will be inevitable vote-shifting to the Greens from more ‘progressive’ ALP voters.

I also wouldn’t underestimate the amount of LNP voters in the inner suburbs who don’t find it difficult at all to switch to the Greens from time to time (‘tree tories’). Michael Berkman took more votes off the LNP than from the ALP in Maiwar last time around.

Not privy to internal ALP funding but given the CFMMEU’s rather public attacks on Trad in recent weeks, I can assume she will not be receiving funds from them which is another factor.

If anyone can hold this seat for Labor it is Trad, but I think this time could be too tough. LNP voters will follow the HTV card, which will put the Greens second last and Labor last, softening the risk of a potential reaction from conservative voters. I suspect LNP voters in Kangaroo Point won’t have too many problems with preferencing the Greens over Labor.

You’re probably right. In any case if and when this does go Green, I don’t see it ever going back to Labor, barring a Corbyn-esque realignment of the ALP.

Yes with the LNP favouring Greens over trad, this seems a probable Green gain.

It was reported by former LNP minister Scott Emerson in the Brisbane Times, the LNP are deliberately running dead in this seat. Their view is they help Jackie Trad chances of winning the seat by running a competitive race, even if they come third in the primary vote. As some voters upset with Trad, will lodge a protest vote for the LNP and preference Trad. Labor are apparently trying to combat the strategy by ‘educating’ LNP voters what a preference to the Greens will do.

Interestingly, some still think Trad is still an option for the Labor leadership. If Trad retains her seat but Labor lose the election despite all the mud thrown at her by the media. Interesting times ahead………..

That doesn’t make any sense to me. Assuming they could make it to second place, and that’s a lot to assume to begin with, they’d probably take it from Labor, not the Greens. They’re running dead because it’s not a seat worth spending resources in.

Yeah that doesn’t make sense to me either. If the LNP wanted to maximise the Greens chance of winning South Brisbane they would definitely not “run dead”, they would get as many HTV cards into the electorate and hand them to every voter.

The LNP really don’t care who wins I feel, they just want to cause mischief and use resources in seats they can win.

@Bennee what it would look like is them running dead in terms of campaigning (no doorknocking, phonebanking, very little visibility etc. – a paper candidate), but then having more than enough presence at booths to ensure all the people wanting to vote Liberal (which even in the most left wing electorates is around 20%) get a Liberal HTV. Liberal HTVs have relatively high follow rates so this will matter.

Mind you unlike federal elections and elections in other states where there’s hope for upper house votes, parties have nothing to lose by completely flunking a seat in QLD except the public funding from votes and the on the night vote count. I’m not sure why the Greens bother running in all 93 seats, for example.

Is it common practice for major parties to not even show up to booths in QLD?

With Griffith being marginal on paper I think Liberals would still want to keep up appearances here.

I have manned booths for DLP, National Party, individual Coalition, Katter, and independent candidates since 1967 in Brisbane, provincial city and country booths. I have never known two major parties not to man booth from very early morning to close of poll. At great majority of booths they have teams who do two or three hour shifts with rostered slots.
In early years city when Commonwealth polling hours were 8 AM to 8 PM that was my shift so whilst I had to leave the booth unmanned for toilet breaks Libs and Labor both had sufficient staff to keep their spots manned.
Both ALP and Libs have teams who descend on a polling booth at midnight to plaster booth with signs often leaving someone to guard the signs. They have teams to get to school just after dawn to grab and hold best spots for HOw to vote distributors.

Liberal party in I think 2013 in Queensland adopted a practice of grossly overmanning booths with intention of limiting others from Handing out. They wrapped literally schools in cheap plastic bunting and then complained loudly when A Frame Corflutes were placed in front of bunting. Generally their individual workers were less aggressive than their party plan but as a consequence ECQ gave parties clear instructions that a repeat of this behaviour would result in limits being placed on numbers of workers allowed at each booth. I can remember saying to Deputy Electoral Commissioner on behalf of my party that this was hardly a threat to us because we would welcome a leveller playing field.
Even at South Brisbane By election I can remember Libs out numbering all others at South Brisbane Town Hall.

I think it very unlikely that ALP or LNP will not man any city booth where they have a candidate running. ALP might leave some very small country booths unmanned but even then most will be manned.

The Greens (publicly) would say running in every seat is “so every voter has the opportunity to vote Green/vote for a progressive party.”This is true to an extent, and a nice sentiment.

But I think what this is really about is continuity. They want people who would vote for them/consider voting for them to see the Greens on every ballot they fill out at every election. Build voter habits, lock in their constituency (however small in some places).

So even if running for 3-4% of the vote in Katter country or other parts of regional QLD is seemingly a waste of time at state level, it’s relatively cheap advertising for senate votes when federal elections roll around.

@ Sam – My main theory for the Greens running in every seat is the chance to get approx. $3 per vote once they hit 6%. AKA $5400+ per electorate for < $500 investment in election material(s) means they have a decent warchest for their Senate tickets. Happy to be proven wrong – it's a theory 😉

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/qld2020/southbrisbane2020/comment-page-1#comment-747448

The Greens running in every seat would be mostly about vote building (both for overall total and future Senate races) around the state. State election campaigns are not cheap either and the Greens have a reasonable chance at not making 6% in the weaker seats, unfortunately.

Starting to think Trad holds on. The Greens always get overestimated. I remember most saying she would fall last time. And remember not all Conservative voters will listen nor even take a how to vote card and will just put the Greens last because they see them as more radical than Labor. Even 10% od LNP voters putting Labor above the Greens might be enough to result in a Labor win

Is the 6% on votes per seat or an aggregate of seats. If Greens get 6% in SB but aggregate 5.9% of votes in 60 seats they run in.

Regarding election funding, I remind the thread that in both Qld and Federal elections, that election funding is now limited by demonstrable election expenditure (which is itself capped in the case of Qld elections).

Now, the claim is certainly there to be made that certain players will funnel their inflated election expenditure through third parties who can then kick it back…

I also remind the thread that about 40% of LNP voters preferenced Green over Labor last time already. I think the LNP HTV impact will not shift that number higher than 60% but that’s probably enough, all else being equal.

Andrew Jackson it is on a per seat basis (5.9% in a seat = zero, 6.1% = entitlement to campaign expenditure as AlexJ points out).

However there is at least one other factor where votes in seats below 6% could matter. A party that elects 3 MPs and gets 10+% of the primary vote statewide becomes a “recognised political party”, granting the leader of such a party additional resourcing/salary.

If the Greens did not run in any of the ~20 seats where they are likely to get below 6% they would lose 1% of their statewide vote and be much more likely to fall short of that.

Thanks Bennee I recall great confusion about this even at highest levels of ECQ when Act was changed in 2015. The provision was worded badly in Electoral Act, and there were strong suspicions that the intention was to minimise the number of minor party candidates standing.

I’m unsure if any of those Independent Candidates were from Socialist Alliance. I know that they did run in McConnell last election but they have decided not to run this time around and are urging their supporters to vote for the Greens.

https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/greens-breakthrough-expected-queensland-election

Does Socialist Alliance support democratic elections or do they believe only path to power is revolution?

Andrew Jackson you’re thinking of Socialist Alternative. They show up to protests, largely to sell their merchandise and wave branded materials. However they are actively hostile to any means of achieving change other than full scale revolution; they have an even lower opinion of the Greens than you. All that money goes to is printing more posters and booklets, hiring more venues for meetings, and making new merchandise and branded materials. I think of it as basically a cult.

Socialist Alliance are more into democracy and elections, and they have some sitting councillors in Melbourne. You will run into their members in unions etc.

The Greens are universally against the current form of neoliberalism that has privatised essential services, rent seeking, built in unemployment, insecure work, corporate political donations, no accounting for environmental damage etc. However from there it’s a big tent as to how far they want to move away from it; you have everything from Keynesians and Sxcandanavian style social democrats to radical anarcho-syndicalists like Sri (who is not a communist – too centralised for his tastes). But they all care about the environment, social justice, peace and democracy, and they all want to move leftward from the status quo.

There are two main Socialist groups I know of in Brisbane – S. Alliance, and S. Alternative.
Alliance stood a candidate (Kamala Emanuel) in McConnel last time, as ZH says.
I’ve not known Alternative to stand in BCC/Qld/Federal elections, but they’re a routine presence at UQ student union elections (which are happening now, actually).

John
If LNP out poll Greens their preferences will not count no matter where they would go. Only Preferences that are actually counted are excluded candidates. In effect independent and minor party candidates preferences matter. Major Party preferences are not
Counted in Great majority of seats because they are still in race. In seats where minor party can win the major party with lower vote is excluded and their preference then decides the result.
One other misconception I heard a candidate express was the assumption that once Preference flows from Party C to Party B the preference order for Party B takes over. Preferences are decided by voters not parties only thing parties do is decide order on How to vote card but great majority of voters allocate preferences as shown on HTV.
A party that can not actually distribute HTV to great majority of voters is just conning other parties. This is why great majority of Independent candidates preference selection for HTV is insignificant not because the prereferences themselves are insignificant but because in great majority of cases candidate does not control the flow of preferences.

John
You will find there is an earlier comment somewhere on Tally Room saying that Greens are too ill disciplined to have been True Communists even in old CPA and in CPA (M-L) and SPA they would have been expelled within minutes of attending their first meeting.
Thanks for info on Socialist alternative / Alliance.
I had thought Alliance and Alternative had merged at. Conf in Geelong but Trots have great capacity to fracture.

I’ve wondered idly what the factional allegiances are of the current crop of Greens candidates. It’s not hard to guess that Sri was very much on the left but it actually seems like most of the ‘serious’ Queensland candidates are too, if not nearly to the same extent. Michael Berkmann seems to be, but don’t quote me, so does Amy MacMahon. Katinka Winston-Allom as well probably. Dunno about Kirsten Lovejoy and I’m guessing Andrew Bartlett is on the right considering his Democrats resume. And Qld ALP of course has been dominated by the Left for ages although I suspect that’s going to change. A little counterintuitive I suppose given the ‘conservative’ Queensland stereotypes.

None of the candidates have a factional allegiance because the QLD Greens don’t have formalised factions.

I think it’s true to describe a growing idea within the QLD Greens with South Brisbane as the epicentre that more explicit campaigning on “material condition” (which would involve more anti-capitalist sounding things) rather than concentrating on appealing mostly to “post material” voters (issues: environment, refugees, LGBTI+, etc.) is a good idea. Perhaps this is merely because the South Brisbane seats are more entrenched Labor seats whereas the Green hotspots north of the river are Liberal in at least 1 level of government if not two so different views of messaging strategy would be understandable.

In terms of what they actually would like the government to do all the members and candidates I’ve met in the Greens agree with pretty much every point and might just disagree on the order of priorities. Universally the compromise position between all potential “factions” in the QLD Greens is reducing corporate influence on politics. Whether you think the most important thing is to stop new coal mines or to get better outcomes for workers ending the political power of corporations is the first step.

Bennee nailed it. Greens policy us formed on consensus and they run on the same policies everywhere. They just emphasise different things depending on the area. Even the factional disputes in NSW a few years ago were grasping at straws for policy differences.

Berkman is highly effective at walking the line between material and post-material. He takes pretty traditional left policy to parliament, but locally he’d be better known for issues like stopping the Mt-Coot Tha zipline and wanting a green bridge on the ABC Toowong site that endear him to the local Liberal voters

Generally it’s hard to guess. Andrew Bartlett has his history with the Democrats but on policy he is surprisingly radical (and always has been). Di Natale was further left than both his predecessors but had a moderate/small-l liberal image that may have actually turned off soft ALP voters.

It would take several terms of a Green majority government for the policy fractures to pop up, and that would be well after other kinds of fracture

This is what I mean. A lot of the Greens old guard have very much opposed the Green New Deal and have even sided with the Coalition against Labor on things like further means-testing for certain entitlements, they also opposed democratic party constitutional changes that Michael Berkmann, for example, supported. For my money I don’t see the Greens ever cracking the hipster-in-a-coffee-shop trope and their near permanent 10% vote share if they don’t completely embrace economic as well as social justice.

I know there aren’t ‘formal’ factions in the Greens but it hardly matters when party discipline is complete and unflinching, as in the ALP, or if you just don’t bother to fight for your alleged principles, again, as in the ALP.

Greens “factions” more a feature of the NSW greens, and to a lesser extent Vic (see: Alex Bhathal saga, though unlike NSW that one played out outside the parliament). Other states (QLD included) generally seem to be a more cohesive bunch. Whether a concerted effort or just a consequence of having relatively little representation compared to the more populous states I don’t know. But I imagine the top 3-4 candidates here in Brisbane would all be pretty supportive and keen for each other to get up.

I don’t know about the factional balance of the QLD Greens, although I do know that the QLD party generally is a left-leaning influence in the national party. Bartlett may have been a Democrat but he was generally on the left of the Dems and my understanding is he’s at least vaguely to the left of the centre of the Australian Greens.

Bennee
all political parties have factions for that matter all organisations have factions.
I grant you ALP has formal factions but would you really count Tony Abbott as same faction as Turnbull or Howard and Peacock or going even further back McMahon and Hasluck.

My impression of Green factions
Environmentalists
Nature Worshippers
Ex Communists/ SPA Marxists
New Age anti religious

Whilst others formal factions of ALP require clear defined membership most other parties have more fluid factionalism.

I have been a member of DLP, KAP and Country Party and whilst I am not prepared to reveal the factions in these organisations they certainly existed. Sometimes attacks on the parties bound them together whereas a bit of espionage would have revealed the fracture lines which could then have split the group further weakening it.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/politics-gets-dirty-in-south-brisbane-in-week-one-as-greens-taunt-alp-20201008-p563e5.html?fbclid=IwAR3CgAPgb2Hz-zPPEwgIFnXj8PRF_UC2X865UQspfx8CnFdc1zuUZpd8Y88

I know it’s from yesterday but really it is deplorable that. Think the Greens really shot them in the foot with this here. I had this down at the beginning as a GRN Gain but somehow I can now see Trad holding on. Interesting to see the comments on FriendlyJordies recent video [this week] about Trad as to why people either loathe or love her; it was amusing as it was enlightening. This seat really is too close to call and with it goes the foregone conclusion that it’s the Green’s for the taking. Yes the LNP advising their masses to put GRN first will have an effect but one cannot underestimate the mobilisation Trad has in her volunteers. 3 more weeks of campaigning could make things very interesting 🙂 bring out the popcorn (And thanks to all the posters for discussion and information, always an interesting read 🙂 )

Prediction (September 2020): TOSS-UP (Lean GRN Gain)

Pretty obviously facetious and pretty dull as far as scandal goes but I don’t underestimate the power of hysterical hand-wringing in politics. She should have known better. We’ll see what happens.

Bad look? Yes. Beat-up? Also yes.

After the article I would say that Greens will not gain this seat. It is not different to the Batman by-elections. Greens a definite and then they destroyed it. Jackie Trad to live again (but for how long???

Yes but it is a classic case of extremism doing far more harm to their candidate than moderation.

Extremism is not confined to Greens Libs have nut case libertarian conspiracy theorists, ALP has class warfare lunatics, KAP has anti city bigots, Family First had Anti-Catholic sectarian protestants, All parties have their extremists and all parties have to wear the cost of this extremism if they do not control it.

Greens could mitigate the damage by expelling the extremists but I doubt they will do this. MY prediction for what it is worth is that I think Trad will hold with Liberal preferences. LIbs extremist move to preference Greens will be counter productive.

I wasn’t aware the the movie Mean Girls was extreme! I note that from the movie quote the words “Girl”, “Her”, and “She” have been altered to “Party”, “Them”, and “They” in this Greens member’s tweet ie- it’s clear the intent of the meme is to be anti-Labor party not a personal attack on Jackie Trad.

I accept that any political meme will always be willfully misinterpreted by anyone that could gain from it though.

PO
When i saw your link, i felt a glimmer of hope, that something new might have turned up. After i read it :NO ! Same old, same old 1. The Greens have been saying repulsive, offensive, libellous, defamatory shit endlessly,,,,! I keep hoping for some “next level” !. Not yet i’m afraid. BORING !

So not a vote changer i’m afraid. GRN Gain.