Callide – QLD 2020

LNP 6.1% vs ON

Incumbent MP
Colin Boyce, since 2017.

Geography
Central Queensland. Callide covers regional areas inland from the central Queensland coast. The seat covers Biloela, Moura, Monto, Eidsvold, Mundubbera, Gayndah, Theodore, Taroom, Chinchilla, Calliope and Wandoan.

History
Callide was created at the 1950 election, and apart from a short period in the 1980s has always been dominated by the Country/National/Liberal National parties.

Vincent Jones held the seat for the Country Party from 1950 to 1971.

At the 1972 election the seat was won by the Country Party’s Lindsay Hartwig. Hartwig won further terms in 1974, 1977 and 1980. In 1981 Hartwig was expelled from the National Country Party. He won re-election in 1983 as an independent and retired in 1986.

Di McCauley held Callide for the National Party from 1986 until 1998.

In 1998, McCauley was succeeded by Jeff Seeney.

Seeney won re-election in 2001, 2004 and 2006, and after the 2006 election became Leader of the National Party.

In 2008, Seeney was replaced by his predecessor Lawrence Springborg, who led the Nationals into a merger with the Liberal Party later that year.

Seeney won re-election as a Liberal National candidate in 2009, 2012 and 2015.

In March 2011, Campbell Newman replaced John-Paul Langbroek as leader of the LNP. As Newman did not hold a seat in the Parliament, Seeney was appointed as interim parliamentary leader.

Jeff Seeney served as deputy premier in the Newman government, and moved to the backbench after the 2015 election.

Candidates

  • Anthony Walsh (Greens)
  • Gordon Earnshaw (Labor)
  • Colin Boyce (Liberal National)
  • Adam Burling (Independent)
  • Loris Doessel (Independent)

Assessment
This seat will likely stay in LNP hands, with One Nation the only credible threat.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Colin Boyce Liberal National 9,66333.4-11.5
Sharon LohseOne Nation7,40825.6+25.6
Darren Blackwood Labor 6,40422.2-1.4
Robbie RadelKatter’s Australian Party3,76113.0+13.0
Jaiben Baker Greens 9873.4+0.5
Sandra AndersonIndependent6822.4+2.4
Informal1,0893.6

2017 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Colin Boyce Liberal National 16,22056.1-3.7
Sharon LohseOne Nation12,68543.9+43.9

Booth breakdown

Booths in Callide have been divided into three areas: east, north-west and south.

The LNP won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against One Nation) in all three areas, ranging from 51.2% in the east to 58.2% in the north-west.

Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 17.5% in the south to 26.4% in the north-west.

Voter groupALP primLNP 2CPTotal votes% of votes
East25.451.27,34125.4
South17.557.95,11117.7
North-West26.458.24,25414.7
Pre-poll24.356.85,63619.5
Other votes17.458.36,56322.7

Election results in Callide at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (LNP vs One Nation) and Labor primary votes.


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18 COMMENTS

  1. Interestingly this electorate has had a different party finish in the 2CP for 2012/2015/2017 elections vs the LNP, but never once the ALP. In 2012 it was KAP, in 2015 it was PUP and in 2017 it was ONP. 2017 was an open seat as Jeff Seeney retired.

    KAP has announced it won’t run a candidate here as they won’t go against Colin Boyce because of his voting against his party which supported the ‘Environmental Protection and Other Legislation Bill’. The Sophomore effect plus this recently publicity should solidify an traditionally strong LNP seat against the ONP, where I agree with Ben are the only credible threat. ALP could increase it’s vote and maybe jump over the ONP and get into second place but really, that’s the only interesting contest here, who makes 2nd. And the fact only the LNP has an endorsed candidate so far for this seat speaks for itself…

    (The other seats with only one currently endorsed candidate I can find are Jordan [ALP], Logan [ALP] and Woodridge [ALP].)

    Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain

  2. Callide and Woodridge are still the two seats I have down as only one candidate endorsed. (As mentioned in my previous post, Jordan and Logan now has 3 candidates.) Assuming GRN and ALP will run in every seat, they better find someone soon, but the fact that no-one else really has made an effort here… the LNP primary vote could be well north of 50%, maybe even 60%. That’s the only real interest here.

    Prediction (September 2020): LNP Retain [no change]

  3. With Colin Boyce (LNP) successfully elected to the federal seat of Flynn (a lot closer than he would have liked), this by-election seems to have slipped under the radar of most. The 2020 election results for Callide were the first time ALP was in the 2CP since the 2009 election (4 elections previous). Boyce got a 23% swing to him on primaries, mainly due to PHON/ONP and KAP not running, and was getting close to the 60% mark I thought he might get.

    The by-election next weekend has 6 candidates (in ballot order):
    Fabrice Jarry (Legalise Cannabis QLD-LCQ)
    Paula Gilbard (Animal Justice Party-AJP)
    Adam Burling (Katter’s Australia Party-KAP)
    Sharon Lohse (Pauline Hanson’s One Nation-PHON)
    Bryson Head (Liberal National Party-LNP)
    Bronwyn Dendle (Australian Labor Party-ALP)

    Previous electoral results of the candidates:
    Paula Gilbard ran for AJP in Longman for the 2022 Fed election getting 1.91%.
    Adam Burling ran in the 2020 election for Callide as an independent (8.4%).
    Sharon Lohse has a history of running for PHON in the area. She ran in Callide in 2017 with a debut of 25.6%. She than ran in the neighbouring seat of the east Maryborough in 2020 and copped a -17% swing. She then ran in Flynn for the 2022 Fed election and scored 12% for PHON, which was still a -7% swing.

    How To Vote Cards:
    I can only find LNP, ALP and PHON HTV’s.
    Interesting to note, all have put Adam Burling (KAP) as their no.2
    LNP then goes 3 PHON, 4 ALP, 5 LCQ, 6 AJP. In some ways expected right>left wing parties.
    ALP then goes 3 LCQ, 4 AJP, 5 LNP, 6 PHON. Surprised 5&6 wasn’t swapped but perception is everything.
    PHON then goes 3 LCQ, 4 LNP, 5 AJP, 6 ALP. Surprised LCQ is at 3. In fact LCQ does well to get no.3 from PHON and ALP.

    Verdict:
    LNP Retain. However, will be interesting to see which party gets no.2. PHON vote has been dropping and KAP doesn’t have a strong presence here, with the ALP choosing well (working for CQ Rural Health) I’d say ALP could hold on to no.2, but can’t see LNP being challenged too much here. LCQ probably to get around 3% and AJP 1% from those who can’t vote Greens. If PHON or KAP get in as a dark horse, I’ll eat my hat!
    (EDIT: I put KAP on a starting vote of 8% ie Burling’s result last time and PHON at 12%.)

  4. Not seen anything out of the ordinary in the news cycle or on the ground here. I suppose it could be because of the Katter and One Nation presence but I expect an easy LNP retain. Won’t be surprised if the race ends up LNP vs ONP though given how toxic Labor is here, even accounting for Hanson’s 2020 flop. But the Labor candidate seems decent so it could be a classic race just as easily.

  5. @Laine the thing out of the ordinary in the news cycle that you’re missing here is the “Biloela family” front and center and making national headlines. Federal Labor are a obviously making it well known that they are behind bringing this family home, in the hope that it will attract positive reception from the local community (a good chunk of Callide).

  6. @SEQ Observer Biloela didn’t swing all that much at the federal election despite the publicity surrounding the family which is why I discounted it as anything of note I suppose. I’m not sure the Labor candidate will be rewarded for their return given it’s a settled issue now the Coalition lost power.

    If Labor can get a TPP of 36-39% it’ll be a pretty good result all things considered.

  7. LNP retain but Labor will win Biloela, anyone who says the family returning home won’t help Labor here has no clue about this contest. People will still punish the coalition for their stance on the issue. You must be in allot of trouble when you only hold Flynn on a 2.5% margin! (If you compare it to all other regional QLD seats this is the most marginal)

  8. Flynn has been a marginal seat since its creation.

    Labor won it in 2007, and the margin in both 2010 and 2016 was narrower than it is now.

    (Also not sure where you got “2.5%” from since the official margin is 3.8%….)

  9. It must have been updated considering last week I remember Bludger said around 2%, but regardless it wasn’t marginal in 2013 and 2016 when it had a 6-8% margin.

    There is no doubt this area is conservative as Labor rarely makes it in the 2CP count, however when One Nation is doing poorly and Palmer isn’t much of a threat anymore who comes 2nd place if not Labor? Katter? Katter doesn’t appeal to central Queensland as much as he does in North Queensland so I doubt they will do that well here.

    I don’t see Labor winning here but I could see the margin going below 10% to the relatively safe range, but should revert to very safe at the next state election. I still believe Biloela will give Labor a swing here but that would have died down by next time.

  10. @Daniel Why would Labor get a swing to them in Biloela now when it had a swing half the size or more (and below Flynn’s average swing in general) of the swing in places like Emerald and Calliope at the federal election despite the Coalition blatantly stating the family won’t be able to return while Labor was saying it will.

    You underestimate how many people will go to the ballot box and change their mind at the last minute for the better of their own interests, despite what they post on Facebook.

    And the last time the margin was below 10% in Callide was 1989. Very different times and very different circumstances. Labor would be over the moon to hit 40% of the vote here. Flynn’s marginal status largely comes from Gladstone and Gracemere.

  11. @Laine, I just don’t think it had any impact in the election campaign because it was largely an after-thought, it wasn’t receiving the national attention like it is now. During the election it was buried amongst many other narratives, even to the locals. Now, post-election it has been given a lot more room to breathe and probably will be more top-of-mind to Callide electors. Not suggesting that it’s going to have any major impact to the margin or outcome, it will likely only ensure that Labor will win the Biloela booth on TPP and end up in the final TPP count instead of LNP vs ONP.

  12. @SEQ Observer I suppose it is just a matter of perspective then. Aside from the occasional leader’s visit to Gladstone the Biloela family was most of what I heard about in the Flynn campaign and I live in the electorate. But I don’t tend to follow the news too closely so it could just be that I happened upon the media at the coincidental point in time they were most mentioned.

    I think it will be an LNP vs Labor contest now as well but as I mentioned earlier I wouldn’t be shocked if it ended up LNP vs One Nation. Labor could win the Biloela booth if they get a decent swing to them again in the by-election (which is entirely possible) but I wouldn’t bet money on it. If they want to get 40% of the TPP they need to do a lot better in Chinchilla and hold the federal results they got in Calliope.

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