Upper Harbour – NZ 2014

NAT 30.01% vs LAB

Incumbent MP
Upper Harbour is a newly-drawn electorate. It takes in parts of three electorates:

  • John Key (National), Member for Helensville since 2002.
  • Murray McCully (National), Member for East Coast Bays since 2002, previously Member for East Coast Bays 1987-1996, Member for Albany 1996-2002.
  • Phil Twyford (Labour), Member for Te Atatū since 2011, previously list MP 2008-2011.

None of these three electorates have been abolished, and none of these local MPs will be running in Upper Harbour.

Geography
Outer north-western suburbs of Auckland. The electorate covers suburbs on both sides of the harbour right on the Auckland urban fringe, including Albany, Glenfield, Greenhithe, Hobsonville, Massey, Massey West, Royal Heights and West Harbour.

Map of Upper Harbour's 2014 boundaries, and boundaries for electorates in the area at the 2011 election. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Upper Harbour’s 2014 boundaries, and boundaries for electorates in the area at the 2011 election. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Upper Harbour is an entirely new electorate. Approximately half of the seat came from the seat of Helensville, which stretches out to cover rural fringe areas to the northwest of Auckland. The remainder comes from Te Atatū, in the western suburbs, and East Coast Bays in the northern suburbs.

History
Upper Harbour is an entirely new electorate, and doesn’t replace any specific previous electorates.

The National electorate of Waitakere, covering suburbs and rural areas to the west of Auckland, was abolished in the redistribution. Upper Harbour is expected to be won by Paula Bennett, a National MP for nine years – the last six holding Waitakere.

Candidates

  • Paula Bennett (National #9), Member for Waitakere 2008-2014, previously list MP 2005-2008.
  • Stephen Berry (ACT #6)
  • Callum Blair (Conservative #6)
  • Nicholas Mayne (Green #48)
  • Makelesi Ngata (Mana #15)
  • Hermann Retzlaff (Labour)
  • Hinurewa Te Hau (Maori #13)

Assessment
Upper Harbour’s suburbs are very safe areas for the National Party, and it seems very unlikely the seat will not be won easily by National.

2011 election results

PartyCandidate votesParty votes
National 59.4256.12
Labour 29.4125.43
Green 6.376.80
Conservative3.423.25
ACT0.921.15
Legalise Cannabis0.400.48
Mana0.040.26
Libertarian0.010.05
New Zealand First5.40
Māori0.55
United Future0.42
Alliance0.04
Democrats0.03
Polling places in Upper Harbour at the 2011 general election. Glenfield in green, Greenhithe in yellow, Massey in red, West Harbour in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Upper Harbour at the 2011 general election. Glenfield in green, Greenhithe in yellow, Massey in red, West Harbour in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Upper Harbour have been divided into four areas: two to the west of the harbour, and two to the east. From southwest to northeast, these areas are Massey, West Harbour, Greenhithe and Glenfield.

National won massive electorate vote majorities of 73-84% in West Harbour and Greenhithe, and smaller 58% majority in Glenfield. Labour won a 50.7% majority in Massey. The National Party won in Greenhithe over Labour with a margin of 76.6%.

On the party vote, National again won a majority (but a smaller one) in three areas, but also won a plurality in Massey.

The Green Party came third on both the electorate and party vote, with a vote peaking in Glenfield and being lowest in West Harbour. New Zealand First also polled over 5% on the party vote, with a vote ranging from 2.9% in Greenhithe to 6.4% in Massey.

Voter groupElectorate votesParty votesTotal% of votes
NATLABGRNNATLABGRNNZF
Glenfield58.1627.617.6954.4525.867.355.736,88123.46
Massey38.7350.735.4243.8637.266.406.376,52922.26
West Harbour73.5617.495.1465.6217.405.535.045,21517.78
Greenhithe84.107.515.3576.097.747.142.873,32811.35
Other votes57.7730.547.3253.2127.857.365.597,38125.16
National party votes in Upper Harbour at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Upper Harbour at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Upper Harbour at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Upper Harbour at the 2011 general election.
National candidate votes in Upper Harbour at the 2011 general election.
National candidate votes in Upper Harbour at the 2011 general election.
Labour candidate votes in Upper Harbour at the 2011 general election.
Labour candidate votes in Upper Harbour at the 2011 general election.