Tāmaki – NZ 2014

NAT 50.33% vs LAB

Incumbent MP
Simon O’Connor, since 2011.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Auckland. The electorate covers suburbs immediately to the west of the Tamaki River, including Glendowie, Glen Innes, Kohimarama, Meadowbanks, Orakei, Remuera and Saint Helliers.

Map of Tāmaki's 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Tāmaki’s 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Tāmaki lost a strip of territory on its southern boundary to Maungakiekie. These changes increased the National margin from 48.5% to 50.3%.

History
The electorate of Tamaki has existed since the 1946 election. Labour won the seat for two terms in the 1940s and 1950s, but the seat has otherwise been held by the National Party. The National Party has held Tamaki continuously since 1960.

Labour’s Bob Tizard won the seat in 1957, and lost in 1960 to Robert Muldoon. Tizard went on to winning another seat at a 1963 by-election, and holding electorates with a variety of names from 1963 to 1990. He served as a senior minister in the Labour government from 1972 to 1975, including as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance from 1974 to 1975. He again served as a senior minister in the Labour government from 1984 to 1990.

Robert Muldoon held Tamaki for over thirty years from 1960. Muldoon became Minister for Finance in 1967, and Deputy Prime Minister in 1971.

Muldoon served as Prime Minister from 1975 to 1984, leading National in government through three terms before losing the 1984 election.

Muldoon continued to serve in Parliament after losing power, including as an opposition frontbencher. He was re-elected in 1987 and 1990, and retired in late 1991. He died in 1992.

National candidate Clem Simich won Tamaki at the 1992 by-election. Simich was re-elected in Tamaki in 1993, 1996, 1999 and 2002. He served briefly as a minister in the National government from 1998 to 1999.

In 2005, Simich stood aside as National candidate for Tamaki, and instead ran in the safe Labour seat of Mangere and was re-elected on the National list. He retired in 2008.

The National Party instead ran Allan Peachey in Tamaki. Peachey was given a strong position on the party’s list in 2002, and was seen as a bright prospect, but missed out amongst a massive defeat for the National Party. He was elected in Tamaki in 2005, and re-elected in 2008.

In 2011, Peachey was planning to run for a third term in Tāmaki, but withdrew due to ill health. He died twenty days before the 2011 election.

National candidate Simon O’Connor replaced Peachey and was elected in Tāmaki in 2011.

Candidates

Assessment
Tāmaki is a very safe National seat.

2011 election results

Electorate VotesParty Votes
CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedistVotes%SwingRedist
Simon O’Connor National 24,83767.67+1.9368.6424,33864.42+4.1965.35
Nick Bakulich Labour 7,05119.21-1.5318.316,64217.58-3.5816.65
Richard Leckinger Green 2,8617.80+1.947.693,3148.77+3.488.73
John BoscawenACT8772.39-2.062.478932.36-5.562.47
Litia SimpsonConservative5671.54+1.541.495751.52+1.521.52
Wayne YoungIndependent3580.98+0.980.99
Stephen BerryIndependent1520.41+0.410.40
New Zealand First1,4213.76+1.293.70
Māori1930.51-0.010.53
United Future1560.41-0.350.42
Legalise Cannabis1070.28+0.110.28
Mana1020.27+0.270.25
Libertarianz300.08+0.030.08
Alliance60.020.000.01
Democrats50.01+0.010.01
Polling places in Tāmaki at the 2011 general election. North-East in green, North-West in yellow, South-East in red, South-West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Tāmaki at the 2011 general election. North-East in green, North-West in yellow, South-East in red, South-West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Tamaki have been split into four areas: north-east, north-west, south-east, south-west.

National won large majorities of 66-78% in three out of four areas, but only won a narrow plurality in the South-East – beating Labour by 5% on the electorate vote and 5.9% on the party vote.

The Labour vote varies enormously, from 9-11% in the north-east to 38-42% in the south-east. The difference is even more dramatic within the south-east. National polled over 70% of the party vote in one booth in the south-east, but polled less than 10% at a booth not that far away.

Voter groupElectorate votesParty votesTotal% of votes
NATLABGRNNATLABGRN
North-West72.2413.217.7169.9212.038.027,19821.60
South-West69.5315.588.7966.4314.289.797,19021.57
North-East77.7810.856.6773.439.398.155,33416.00
South-East46.9641.987.1843.8637.997.904,76414.29
Other votes71.1516.447.6867.4715.179.218,84326.53
National party votes in Tāmaki at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Tāmaki at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Tāmaki at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Tāmaki at the 2011 general election.
National electorate votes in Tāmaki at the 2011 general election.
National electorate votes in Tāmaki at the 2011 general election.
Labour electorate votes in Tāmaki at the 2011 general election.
Labour electorate votes in Tāmaki at the 2011 general election.