Rongotai – NZ 2014

LAB 25.14% vs NAT

Incumbent MP
Annette King, since 1996. Previously Member for Horowhenua 1984-1990, Member for Miramar 1993-1996.

Other local MPs

  • Chris Finlayson (National), list MP since 2005.
  • Russell Norman (Green), list MP since 2008.

Geography
Wellington. Rongotai covers inner suburbs immediately to the southeast of the Wellington city centre, including Berhampore, Hataitai, Island Bay, Kilbirnie, Lyall Bay, Maupuia, Miramar, Newtown, Seatoun and Worser Bay.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Rongotai has existed as an electorate since the 1996 election. It primarily replaced the electorate of Miramar, which had existed since 1946. Rongotai has always been held by Labour. Miramar was usually held by Labour, except for the period from 1966 to 1981, and again from 1990 to 1993.

Labour’s Annette King won Miramar in 1993, defeating National MP Graeme Reeves, who had won the seat in 1990.

Annette King served as a senior minister in the Labour-led government from 1999 to 2008, including in the portfolios of Health, Transport, Police and Justice.

ACT candidate Stephen Franks was elected on the party list in 1999 after running in Rongotai. He was elected to a second term in 2002, and left Parliament in 2005.

United Future candidate Gordon Copeland was elected on the party list in 2002, and re-elected in 2005. In 2007 he left United Future, and lost his seat in 2008.

Green candidate Russell Norman ran in Rongotai in 2005, but missed out on election to Parliament. He was elected co-leader of the Green Party in 2006, and shortly before the 2008 election he filled a casual vacancy in Parliament as a Green list MP. Norman ran in Rongotai again at the 2008 and 2011 and in both cases was re-elected as a Green list MPs.

National MP Chris Finlayson ran in Rongotai in 2008 and 2011, and was re-elected on the party list at both elections. Finlayson had first been elected on the party list in 2005, when he ran in the Mana electorate in northern Wellington.

The Labour government lost power in 2008, and after that election Annette King was elected as deputy leader of the Labour Party, and therefore Deputy Leader of the Opposition. She held the role until shortly after the 2011 election, when she stepped down.

Candidates

  • Aaron Carter (Climate Party)
  • Sultan Eusoff (United Future #4)
  • Chris Finlayson (National #8), list MP.
  • Annette King (Labour #4), Member for Rongotai.
  • Russel Norman (Green #2), list MP.
  • John Overton (Patriotic Revolutionary Front)
  • Ariana Paretutanganui-Tamati (Mana #25)
  • Brent Pierson (New Zealand First #25)
  • Don Richards (Independent)
  • Bruce Welsh (Conservative)

Assessment
Rongotai is a safe Labour electorate seat. There is a very large centre-left vote, with Labour polling a majority of the electorate vote and the Green Party polling over 20%.

On the party vote, the Labour vote is much lower, and the Green vote is the second-highest in the country. Both parties will be hoping for a strong party vote result to achieve the best national result.

2011 election results

Electorate VotesParty Votes
CandidatePartyVotes%SwingVotes%Swing
Annette King Labour 18,17950.52-1.9312,60634.18-8.51
Christopher Finlayson National 9,13225.38-2.9512,16832.99+1.63
Russel Norman Green 7,26220.18+4.348,92024.19+7.22
Brent PiersonNew Zealand First4881.36+1.361,6404.45+1.93
Bruce WelshConservative4351.21+1.214091.11+1.11
Louise RickusMāori1680.47+0.472510.68-0.24
Joel LatimerACT1680.47-0.672380.65-1.34
Donald RichardsIndependent1520.42+0.42
United Future2170.59-0.27
Mana1980.54+0.54
Legalise Cannabis1670.45+0.04
Libertarianz310.08-0.01
Alliance230.06-0.03
Democrats110.03+0.02
Polling places in Rongotai at the 2011 general election. Central in red, East in yellow, North in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Rongotai at the 2011 general election. Central in red, East in yellow, North in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Rongotai have been divided into four parts:

  • Central – Suburbs closest to the Wellington city centre, including Berhampore and Newtown.
  • East – Suburbs on the Miramar peninsula, including Breaker Bay, Maupuia, Miramar, Seatoun, Strathmore Park and Worser Bay.
  • North – Suburbs on the western side of Evans Bay between ‘Central’ and ‘East’, including Hataitai, Kilbirnie, Rongotai and Roseneath.
  • South – Suburbs on the southern shore, including Houghton Bay, Island Bay, Kingston, Lyall Bay and Owhiro Bay.

The Labour Party won a majority of the electorate vote in three out of four areas, and close to a majority in the fourth, with a vote ranging from 47.5% in the North to 57.1% in Central.

The National Party electorate vote ranged from 15.7% in Central to 32% in the East. The Green Party electorate vote ranged from 12.7% in the East to 23.4% in Central. In the ‘Central’ area, the Green candidate Russell Norman outpolled National candidate Chris Finlayson.

On the party vote, Labour fell well short of a majority in every area. The National Party polled a plurality in the East and the North, but in both cases was outpolled by the combined Labour-Green vote. Labour polled a plurality in the South and Central areas.

The Green Party polled very highly on the party vote, ranging from 15.9% in the East to 29.7% in Central.

Voter groupElectorate votesParty votesTotal% of votes
LABNATGRNLABNATGRN
East51.3231.9612.6632.9442.0615.897,44120.68
South50.4823.8821.0733.8931.4624.986,62018.40
Central57.0615.7423.3940.4821.3229.745,57115.48
North47.5228.6419.9931.0237.3722.815,38714.97
Other votes48.1425.1123.2133.5831.6427.0210,96530.47
Labour party votes in Rongotai at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Rongotai at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Rongotai at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Rongotai at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in Rongotai at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in Rongotai at the 2011 general election.
Labour electorate votes in Rongotai at the 2011 general election.
Labour electorate votes in Rongotai at the 2011 general election.
National electorate votes in Rongotai at the 2011 general election.
National electorate votes in Rongotai at the 2011 general election.
Green electorate votes in Rongotai at the 2011 general election.
Green electorate votes in Rongotai at the 2011 general election.