Manukau East – NZ 2014

LAB 63.03% vs NAT

Incumbent MP
Ross Robertson, since 1996. Previously Member for Papatoetoe 1987-1996.

Other local MPs

  • Kanwal Singh Bakshi (National), list MP since 2008.
  • Asenati Taylor (New Zealand First), list MP since 2011.

Geography
South-eastern Auckland. Manukau East covers the suburbs of Otahuhu, Otara and Papatoetoe.

Map of Manukau East's 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Manukau East’s 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
No changes were made to Manukau East’s southern, eastern or western boundaries. Manukau East lost a small area on its northern boundary to Maungakiekie. The redistribution made relatively minor changes, increasing the Labour margin from 62.95% to 63.03%.

History
The electorate of Manukau East has existed since the 1996 redistribution. The electorate partly replaced the seat of Papatoetoe which had existed from 1978 to 1996. Both Papatoetoe and Manukau East have been Labour-held continuously since 1978.

Eddie Isbey won Papatoetoe for the Labour Party in 1978. Isbey had held the seat of Grey Lynn in inner Auckland from 1969 to 1978. The abolition of his previous electorate forced him to move to the outer suburbs. Isbey held Papatoetoe for three terms, and retired in 1987.

Ross Robertson won Papatoetoe in 1987. Robertson has represented the area in the Parliament for nine terms from 1987 to 2014. In 1996, Papatoetoe was replaced by Manukau East, and Robertson shifted to that electorate.

In addition to Robertson, a number of list MPs have been elected after running in Manukau East.

Matt Robson was elected as a Progressive list MP in 2002 after running in Manukau East. Robson had won two previous terms in 1996 and 1999 as an Alliance candidate. Robson lost his seat in 2005.

National list MP Kanwal Singh Bakshi ran in Manukau East in 2008 and 2011. He was first elected as a list MP in 2008, and re-elected in 2011.

New Zealand First candidate Asenati Taylor was elected as a New Zealand First list MP in 2011.

Candidates
Sitting Labour MP Ross Robertson is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Manukau East is the second-safest electorate in New Zealand, and Labour will have no trouble retaining the seat.

2011 election results

Electorate VotesParty Votes
CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedistVotes%SwingRedist
Ross Robertson Labour 19,39977.11+11.0377.1917,97766.68+7.3566.63
Kanwal Singh Bakshi National 3,56114.16-4.2614.165,28719.61-4.5819.77
Asenati TaylorNew Zealand First9993.97+3.973.911,7036.32+2.646.20
John MintoMana4611.83+1.831.832530.94+0.940.96
Frank NaeaConservative4251.69+1.691.673931.46+1.461.47
Jonathan MacfarlaneACT2480.99-1.670.981430.53-1.080.51
Felicity CogganCommunist630.25+0.190.26
Green 9133.39+1.603.36
Māori1310.49-0.530.49
Legalise Cannabis930.340.000.36
United Future410.15-0.310.15
Libertarianz100.04+0.020.04
Alliance90.030.000.04
Democrats70.030.000.03
Polling places in Manukau East at the 2011 general election. Otahuhu in yellow, Otara in green, Papatoetoe North in blue, Papatoetoe South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Manukau East at the 2011 general election. Otahuhu in yellow, Otara in green, Papatoetoe North in blue, Papatoetoe South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Manukau East has been divided into four areas, based on the three suburbs that cover the electorate. A majority of polling places in the electorate are in the suburb of Papatoetoe – these booths have been split into north and south areas. The other polling places are in the suburbs of Otara and Otahuhu.

Labour won huge majorities of both the electorate vote and the party vote in all four areas. The Labour electorate vote ranged from 68.8% in Papatoetoe North to 91.3% in Otara. The Labour party vote ranged from 51.6% in Papatoetoe North to 87.4% in Otara.

The National vote ranged from a respectable vote in Papatoetoe North (22.1% electorate vote, 32.8% party vote) to a tiny 1-4% in Otara.

Voter groupElectorate votesParty votesTotal% of votes
LABNATLABNATNZF
Papatoetoe North68.8322.0751.5832.827.104,81320.05
Papatoetoe South73.8317.3559.0625.217.084,46718.61
Otara91.301.8187.423.724.224,13817.23
Otahuhu75.7214.6167.0418.076.613,57914.91
Other votes77.4913.7769.2417.705.987,01329.21
Labour party votes in Manukau East at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Manukau East at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Manukau East at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Manukau East at the 2011 general election.