Kelston – NZ 2014

LAB 25.31% vs NAT

Incumbent MP
Kelston is a newly-drawn electorate. It takes in parts of four electorates:

  • Paula Bennett (National), Member for Waitakere since 2008, previously list MP 2005-2008.
  • David Cunliffe (Labour), Member for New Lynn since 2002, previously Member for Titirangi 1999-2002.
  • David Shearer (Labour), Member for Mount Albert since 2009.
  • Phil Twyford (Labour), Member for Te Atatū since 2011, previously list MP 2008-2011.

The electorate of Waitakere has been abolished, but no incumbent MPs will be running in Kelston.

Geography
Western suburbs of Auckland, including Avondale, Glen Eden, Glendene, Henderson, Kelston, Sunnyvale, Titirangi and Waterview.

Map of Kelston's 2014 boundaries, and boundaries for electorates in the area at the 2011 election. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Kelston’s 2014 boundaries, and boundaries for electorates in the area at the 2011 election. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Kelston was drawn from parts of four electorates. Kelston took in Glen Eden, Henderson and Sunnyvale from Waitakere, Avondale and Waterview from Mount Albert, Kelston and Titirangi from New Lynn and Glendene from Te Atatū.

History
Upper Harbour is an entirely new electorate, and doesn’t replace any specific previous electorates.

Three of the four electorates which made up parts of Kelston were safe Labour seats, while Waitakere was a marginal National seat.

Mount Albert has been Labour-held for its entire history since 1946. New Lynn has also been Labour-held since its created in 1963. Both seats were abolished for one term in the 1990s before being restored.

Te Atatū has existed since 1978, barring one term from 1996 to 1999 when the seat was abolished. The seat has been won by Labour at all but one election. National won the seat in 1996.

Waitakere was always Labour-held from its creation in 1946 until its first abolition in 1984. Since the seat’s restoration in 1993, the seat was won by the National Party at five out of seven elections.

Candidates

  • Anne Degia-Pala (New Zealand First #21)
  • Bruce Haycock (ACT #30)
  • Ruth Irwin (Green #45)
  • Jeff Lye (Legalise Cannabis #5)
  • Christopher Penk (National #68)
  • Roshni Sami (Internet #18)
  • Carmel Sepuloni (Labour #29)
  • Paul Sommer (Conservative)
  • Jason Woolston (United Future #6)

Assessment
Kelston is a safe Labour seat. Carmel Sepuloni (who was previously a Labour list MP from 2008 to 2011) should have no trouble regaining a seat in Parliament.

2011 election results

PartyCandidate votesParty votes
Labour 57.4846.41
National 32.1732.81
Green 6.439.76
Conservative2.152.00
Legalise Cannabis0.750.53
ACT0.530.66
Mana0.430.56
Libertarian0.050.08
New Zealand First6.32
Māori0.46
United Future0.34
Alliance0.05
Democrats0.01
Polling places in Kelston at the 2011 general election. Central in orange, East in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Kelston at the 2011 general election. Central in orange, East in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Kelston have been divided into three sections:

  • Central – Glendene, Henderson, Kelston, Sunnyvale
  • East – Avondale, Waterview
  • South – Glen Eden, Titirangi

Labour won large electorate vote majorities in Central (61.7%) and East (69.1%), and won a plurality with 48.1% in the South. The National Party’s electorate vote ranged from 20.2% in the East to 41.1% in the South. The Green electorate vote was higher, at 7%, in South and East, compared to 4.4% in Central.

On the party vote, Labour won majorities of 50-53% in Central and East. In the South, National won a narrow plurality – 39.5% to 37.8%.

The Green party vote was higher at 11% in South and East, compared to 6.6% in Central.

New Zealand First got about the same vote in each area, with a party vote ranging from 6.1% in the East to 6.6% in the South.

Voter groupElectorate votesParty votesTotal% of votes
LABNATGRNLABNATGRNNZF
South48.1141.067.0737.7839.4711.246.628,39732.75
Central61.6629.584.3750.9230.966.646.547,53529.39
East69.0620.167.1052.8526.2411.046.074,07315.89
Other votes57.4831.067.7648.2030.5110.755.825,63421.98
Labour party votes in Kelston at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Kelston at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Kelston at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Kelston at the 2011 general election.

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