Botany – NZ 2014

NAT 37.81% vs LAB

Incumbent MP
Jami-Lee Ross, since 2011.

Geography
Eastern Auckland. Botany lies entirely within the Auckland Region, and includes the suburbs of Botany Downs, Burswood, Chapel Downs, Cockle Bay, Dannemora, Flat Bush, Highland Park, Meadowlands, Northpark, Shelly Park and Somerville.

Map of Botany's 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Botany’s 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Botany expanded slightly on its southeastern border, gaining small areas from Hunua. These changes reduced the National margin from 38.7% to 37.8%.

History
The electorate of Botany is a recent creation, having been created for the 2008 redistribution. The seat has been a safe National seat for the entirety of its short existence.

Botany was won in 2008 by the National Party’s Pansy Wong. Wong had served as a list MP from 1996 to 2008.

Wong joined the ministry after the 2008 election, but stepped down from the ministry in 2010 after her husband used parliamentary travel entitlements to conduct business in China. She resigned from Parliament in early 2011.

The 2011 Botany by-election was won by National candidate Jami-Lee Ross. Ross was re-elected at the 2011 general election.

Candidates

  • Tofik Mamedov (Labour #60)
  • David McCormick (Independent)
  • Jami-Lee Ross (National #29), Member for Botany.
  • Paul Young (Conservative #10)

Assessment
Botany is a very safe National seat.

2011 election results

Electorate VotesParty Votes
CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedistVotes%SwingRedist
Jami-Lee Ross National 17,78064.03+7.8163.5917,74961.13-0.1160.76
Chao-Fu Wu Labour 7,03925.35+4.2925.787,11124.49-0.6924.95
Paul YoungConservative2,1357.69+7.697.567772.68+2.682.67
Lyn MurphyACT6312.27-12.982.224781.65-3.191.62
Ram ParkashUnited Future1850.67-0.720.64940.32-0.370.32
New Zealand First0.051,2784.40+2.264.38
Green 0.141,2774.40+2.014.36
Legalise Cannabis850.29+0.10.29
Māori0.01840.29-0.020.29
Mana720.25+0.250.25
Libertarianz130.04+0.010.05
Alliance90.03+0.010.03
Democrats70.02+0.020.02
Polling places in Botany at the 2011 general election. Central in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Botany at the 2011 general election. Central in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Botany have been divided into three groups: Central, North and South.

The National Party won large margins in Central and North, winning just under 70% of the vote in Central and over 70% in the North.

The National Party won a plurality in the South, with 49.5% of the electorate vote and 47.3% of the party vote. Labour’s vote is also much higher in the south, polling over 40% compared to 13-18% in the other two areas.

The third-placed candidate was Paul Young of the Conservatives, who performed more strongly in the north and centre of the seat.

Voter groupElectorate votesParty votesTotal% of votes
NATLABCONNATLAB
Central69.8718.418.5567.9117.447,80227.12
North72.3314.999.4070.8513.706,76523.51
South49.5241.755.9247.2840.766,47422.50
Other votes61.3929.306.3356.4028.757,72926.86
National party votes in Botany at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Botany at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Botany at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Botany at the 2011 general election.
National candidate votes in Botany at the 2011 general election.
National candidate votes in Botany at the 2011 general election.
Labour candidate votes in Botany at the 2011 general election.
Labour candidate votes in Botany at the 2011 general election.