Ryde – NSW 2023

Backing Dominello to win Ryde. He has been one of the best performers as a Minister for the NSW Government and his roll-out of the Services NSW App has been lightyears ahead of the other states and the Federal Government.

He will win this despite Bennelong going to Labor at the last election.

I think the only reason why Bennelong was won by Labor was because the lost of incumbency, a swing to Labor in the Chinese Australians and the LNP canadiate support to the anti-vax movement

Agreed. Forget the federal election results in Bennelong. Dominello will hold on. He may even get an upgrade in his portfolio to treasurer/shadow treasurer post-election.

Dominello is the only Liberal candidate I would vote for.

Dominello’s done a solid job as MP. Liberal hold 5-10%

Dominello has been a great member, and advocate for digital services in NSW. We need his passion, integrity and down to earth style in the parliament.

A shame it will likely be in an opposition capacity, he has been severely let down by his colleagues in the Liberal Party.

Looking at the figures he has an excellent flow of preferences. Better than expected 7% right wing but he ends up with plus 9% must have to do with exhaust rate. I cannot guess the result there will be a swing but how big.. Ryde can swing John Watkins had 14% margins at times

This is more Labor leaning than than Bennelong as a whole as it is really the Eastern Fringe towards Hunters Hill (Putney/East Ryde) and the Northern Part of Bennelong around Epping that tend to be strongest for the Libs. However, i dont see Labor winning Ryde unless it is a landslide.

Agree Nimalan, I think the NSW result overall will be close and the Coalition have a chance to hang on in minority status with the loss of just a few seats. I see a few factors that would favour this scenario:

1. The ‘down ballot’ effect where the party in power nationally generally performs poorly in local and state elections, even with other factors in play.

2. The Coalition in NSW is seen as more ‘moderate’ and not as conservative compared to some of its interstate counterparts. Premier Perrottet, despite his general conservative views overall has also tried to maintain a more softer image and reign in some hardliners within the caucus.

On the flip side, there is enough uncertainty between now and March 2023 that Labor could achieve a majority and a double digit net gain, due to a combination of:

1. The ‘its time’ factor as the Coalition has been in office for 10+ years and may be seen as being stale and worn out

2. Recent scandals and other issues like John Barilaro’s controversial New York trade appointment and conflicts with public sector unions, especially in the transport sector. If these continue to blow out over the next few months, then they will be decisive in enabling Labor to win.

@Yoh An, you’re definitely correct that NSW Libs seem to have a better reputation than the federal and most interstate counterparts.
– Fed Libs have full fighting between moderate and conservative factions with Climate Change still being an issue for the party
– Vic Libs has been ambiguous by being populist in supporting the anti-vax movement yet still wants climate action not to mention Matthew Guy’s poor leadership
– QLD LNP has the fighting between the establishment and the Christian Right

Agree Marh, for Victoria the Libs and Coalition generally may be seen as too right wing, or at least the hardliners are dominating over the more moderate faction/wing. That will probably end up playing poorly and prevent the Coalition winning power in what is increasingly a progressive state.

For Queensland, I don’t see the infighting being displayed in the public domain compared to Victoria, and even if the hardliner faction dominating the party it won’t matter much since Queensland is more conservative leaning and more favourable to the LNP generally, as shown when their vote still held up in Queensland and they only lost 2 seats to the Greens compared to NSW and Victoria at the recent federal election.

For Queensland, LNP is weaker at is state level (5 out of the last 33 years). I think one reason is that QLD ALP is more conservative so their policies seem to focus less on social issues

@ Marh/Yoh An, one the reason i think Labor seems to do quite well at a state level is that there are a smaller more bite sized electorate which easier for Labor. For example there are a string of very safe Labor seats such as Mackay, Gladstone, Rockhampton, Cairns and some times Bundaberg/Maryborough which are traditional blue collar seats, whereas at a Federal level the corresponding seats extend into Agricultural areas which often make it a challenge for Labor to win. Also the smaller size of the seats mean that Labor can sometimes win seats such as Toowomba North, seats on Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast which is virtually impossible to do at a federal level in these areas. I personally don’t believe that Red/State blue state divide does not apply to Australia unlike USA. The Labor party was born under the Tree of Knowledge in Outback Qld and the first parliamentary social democratic government in the world was led by Andrew Dawson in QLD. The reason why Labor is strong in Victoria is due to the Red well that covers North/West Melbourne along with parts of South East Melbourne. This due Melbourne having more manufacturing compared to other parts of Australia.

Dominello will not contest the seat in 2023 due to “family health issues”

That is huge. This seat is in play now.

It will be crucial who the Libs preselect. They would not want to make the same mistakes of the Bennelong preselection. They would ideally choose a candidate if a candidate of Chinese heritage like Craig Chung.

@ Dan M, agree it needs to be a good candidate, Craig Chung would be ideal. However, i am also thinking of Gisele Kapterian as there is a large Armenian community in this seat as well.

Agree Nimalan and Dan, I think if either Craig Chung or Gisele had been successful in winning preselection for Bennelong the Liberals would have retained the seat as they were stronger and better fit than Simon Kennedy.

Sad news for Ryde & NSW, to lose Victor Dominello from the parliament. Critical for the Liberals to select a similarly high quality candidate – and hopefully that’s not Jordan Lane, Mayor of Ryde.

With Dominello out of the picture, I was curious enough to calculate federal results in this district.

Using the methodology I have used for other seats, Ryde is Labor 3.0% based on federal results.

I don’t think Gisele Kapterian has many local credentials here and seems to be more interested in federal politics, after all she was a federal staffer. Thus she is unlikely to be interested here, favouring preselection in one of the nearby federal teal seats. That just leaves Craig Chung and Jordan Lane.

The wildcard would be Fiona Martin who lives here and never moved to Reid despite having been the MP there. However she endorsed Craig Chung to run here and they are both factional moderates so it will be interesting to see what happens.

Craig Chung seems to be the ideal Liberal candidate here. My question is who is the Labor candidate going to be now that Laxale is in federal parliament? Perhaps a senior councilor such as Bernard Purcell would do the trick. Without Dominello, expect the margin to be much closer, perhaps a 1-2% Labor victory without hindsight. Labor will also be more inclined to put resources into the area, which may have a knock on effect in nearby seats such as Parramatta, Epping & Drummoyne, though I only see Parramatta changing hands as of now.

There will also be a by-election in West Ward in October, which mostly lies in Parramatta but is demographically similar to most of the council. I would encourage this be closely observed.

Based on federal election figures in Bennelong, Labor won the 2PP in booths in Eastwood, Denistone and Marsfield voted for Labor (following swings of over 10%).

Gisele Kapterian and Craig Chung could be strong contenders and seem like a better fit for the Liberal party in this area. I doubt that the Liberals would preselect a failed federal candidate like Fiona Martin or Simon Kennedy, both of whom lost seats following massive swings. Labor could preselect Brian Owler, who ran in 2019 in Bennelong, if he’s keen to run for Ryde this time.

> There will also be a by-election in West Ward in October, which mostly lies in Parramatta

No it doesn’t.

West Ward of Ryde LGA lies entirely within Ryde district. Parramatta district does not contain any of Ryde LGA.

Even on the old/existing NSW state boundaries, Parramatta district does not extend into any part of Ryde council. I think Boof head is mistaken with Bennelong federal district, which does have a small overlap into Parramatta council and its namesake state district, as it contains parts of Ermington. Even then it is only a small portion and not a majority of Bennelong.

Looks very likely that it will be Jordan Lane and Craig Chung running. I know Craig well, through the party and playing cricket against his son. Agreed that he would be a much better fit for Ryde.

A shame about Victor retiring. He has been one of the best performers for the Government.

I think Jordan Lane would make an excellent replacement for Victor. He’s done an amazing job as Mayor and possesses the same integrity, decency and down to earth approach as Victor. A genuine person who wants to represent his community and change lives for the better

Victor Dominello’s retirement will truly be a loss that will hurt.

He has ways served with distinction and has been pro-active in the digital and customer service space in NSW.

He was an asset to the libs but
Now he is gone and the alp will
Fare better with Dominello
No longer in the contest. This seat is similar to the Federal seat of Bennelong and labor if
They pick a good candidate have an excellent chance

Good news for Jordan Lane. Mick’s tipping an ALP win. I think he is home and hosed.

Moderate, I think Ryde will be a much closer contest compared to recent election cycles. With Jordan Lane, the Liberals are favoured to hold on but only just – the overall factors for NSW will favour Labor primarily due to the ‘its time’ factor but also things like political scandals and conflicts with unions.

I probably see a swing of several percent against the Liberals in Ryde, due to it being an open seat and the other factors mentioned above. Unless Labor pick/nominate a really bad candidate then the Liberals will retain the seat more comfortably.

Did Jordan Lane win preselection here?

Actually I agree with yoh an
I said Labor can win with a good candidate

Have a look at west ward by-election. Minns’ staffer was trounced …

Moderate, local council elections generally don’t have much effect/influence when compared to state or federal results. Whilst there can be some overlap (many NSW councils in and around Sydney saw swings against Labor in 2012 just after their landslide loss, just like in Qld 2012), often local council elections will play out very differently compared to their state/federal counterparts.

I am going by the experience of the recent NSW elections where council results were mixed in nature. Also, in recent Queensland local elections the LNP easily won council wards and the Mayoralty in Brisbane but failed to make headway in the overlapping state districts.

I did some calculations of federal figures, including postals, absents and provisionals with the difference between the Ryde booths and Bennelong factored:
LIB: 41.0%
ALP: 38.6%
GRN: 10.8%
OTH: 9.6%
This leads to an estimated victory for the ALP on Optional Preferential Voting with a margin of 1.2%. The key here is that the gap between the Liberals and Labor is narrow enough for enough preferences to flow to Labor. To win this seat, the Liberals simply need to match their federal results in the eastern part of Ryde but increase the vote from the federal election around their traditional stronghold of Eastwood. It is very possible.

The problem for the Liberals in this seat, like Epping and Drummoyne is the Northern train line suburbs. Federally in these seats the Liberals do reasonably well in other parts of the electorate except the suburbs along the train line. For the Liberals to win Epping, Ryde and Drummoyne they need to hold a decent vote along the train line suburbs from North Strathfield up to Beecroft.

I think Jordan Lane will keep this one with the Liberal Party.

He’s got a much better profile in the community, and particularly appeals to the growing young professional class in the area. He’s also not associated with the right wing of the Liberal party, and comes across as a pragmatic and practical politician.

The strong endorsement from Victor Dominello is also likely to help.

No one has ever heard of the Labor candidate before, Dr Francisco Valencia, and more importantly what his priorities for Ryde are.

The Labor candidate has practically no profile, with no online profile on social media and they aren’t even on Labor’s website! There has been no signs of any Labor campaign in this area either. Jordan Lane on the other hand, has been campaigning heavily at train stations and shopping centres for the last few weeks with Victor Dominello. Both candidates’ appeal to the Chinese community may be somewhat limited, but Lane’s appeal to younger renters who he can relate with is a strength with aspirational voters – they are the kind of voters the Liberals need to win given they struggle with younger voters. It really doesn’t seem like Labor is taking this seat too seriously, I honestly think they’d be better off targeting Epping over Ryde.

The Labor candidate has now dropped out after an alleged domestic violence incident in Brisbane last weekend.
Any guesses on who the new candidate could be?

Right 57 % left 43 % 2pp 59% lib
That suggest opv bonus of 2% in an election where the libs got 52% 2pp in nsw. Think Dominello had a personal vote maybe 2% Labor will do better
Than 50% /50% so this could
Go close Ryde also swings like
Bennelong something like 7% see Ben’s figures suggests about 10% this suggests to me that the libs are uncertain of victory. This will depend on the quality of the candidates and the dynamics of the campaign.
I would say this is like Oatley except the sitting mp retired. To
Use a tennis term advantage labor

Advantage Labor- except they don’t have a candidate!!

Perhaps NSW Labor aren’t too fussed or they’re overly optimistic about Ryde. After all, Jerome Laxale was preselected for Bennelong in March but then won the seat in May.

Labor preselected candidates for Balmain and Kiama months ago even though the seat margins in both are higher than Ryde’s.

Simon Kennedy in Bennelong was only announced 2 days earlier, it’s not as much about how early the candidate is selected as much as it is about the time relative to their opponents. Jordan Lane has been campaigning for weeks now while Labor has had no campaign in Ryde practically.

Agree with me moderate?

I think moderate disagrees with you, he/she argues that Labor hasn’t selected a candidate yet.

I read that Labor did select someone quite low profile so I see the liberal party with Jordan Lane as slight favourites to retain the seat unless Lane and/or the state party make some serious missteps between now and election day

You Anh I was just joking
But the seat is uncertain