Lakemba – NSW 2011

ALP 34.0%

Incumbent MP
Rubert Furolo, since 2008.

Geography
Inner southwestern Sydney. Lakemba includes central and western parts of the City of Canterbury, and a small part of the City of Hurstville. The seat covers the suburbs of Roselands, Riverwood, Punchbowl, Wiley Park, Lakemba, Belmore, Clemton Park.

History
The electoral district of Lakemba has existed continuously since 1927. In that time, it has always been won by the ALP.

Fred Stanley won the district of Lakemba in 1927. The seat was expected to be won by member for St George, George Cann, but he was expelled from the ALP after opposing Jack Lang’s efforts to centralise power in his hands. Stanley held the seat for the next two decades. In 1949 Stanley didn’t follow the ALP line in casting a vote for a vacancy in the Legislative Council, along with three other ALP MPs. The four MPs were also suspected of having taken cash bribes in exchange for their votes. He was expelled from the ALP in 1950, and lost Lakemba at the 1950 election to the official ALP candidate, Stan Wyatt.

Wyatt held the seat until 1964, when he retired. He served as party whip from 1959 to 1964.

Vince Durick held Lakemba from 1964 until 1984. Wes Davoren followed him, serving from 1984 until his retirement in 1995.

Tony Stewart won Lakemba in 1995. Stewart moved to Bankstown in 1999 to make way for Morris Iemma, whose seat of Hurstville had been abolished by the redistribution. Stewart was re-elected in Bankstown 2003 and 2007. Stewart served as a minister for two months in late 2008, but was removed after he was accused of harrassing a staff member. Stewart is retiring at the upcoming election.

Iemma had won Hurstville in 1991, when it was a highly marginal seat, and he strengthened the ALP’s position in the area. Morris Iemma was appointed to the Carr government’s ministry after the 1999 election, and he worked his way up to the position of Health Minister.

When Bob Carr retired in 2005, Morris Iemma was elected ALP leader and Premier. He won another term for the Labor government in 2007. Following that election, he embarked on plans for privatisation of the NSW electricity industry. These plans deeply divided the ALP, and resulted in Iemma clashing with the ALP state conference. Following these events, Iemma resigned as Premier in September 2008 after losing the support of key powerbrokers.

Iemma resigned from Parliament soon after, triggering a by-election in Lakemba. By-elections were also held in Ryde, Cabramatta and Port Macquarie. The Lakemba by-election was won by Canterbury mayor Robert Furolo with a 13.5% swing against the ALP. This was substantially less than the 23% swing in Ryde and the 21% swing in Cabramatta, the two worst ever results for the party in a by-election.

Candidates

Political situation
Lakemba is the safest Labor seat in New South Wales.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Morris Iemma ALP 31,907 73..9 +9.1
Morris Mansour LIB 5,698 13.2 -2.8
Josephine Sammut CDP 1,716 4.0 +1.3
Bashir Sawalha GRN 1,671 3.9 -3.0
Omar Moussa UNI 1,476 3.4 -1.1
Garry Dalrymple DEM 473 1.1 +0.9
Joanne Kuniansky IND 237 0.5 +0.5

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Morris Iemma ALP 33,596 84.0 +5.2
Morris Mansour LIB 6,415 16.0 -5.2

2008 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Rubert Furolo ALP 23,004 58.2 -15.6
Michael Hawatt LIB 9,354 23.7 +10.5
Kristian Bolwell GRN 4,847 12.3 +8.4
Allan Lotfizadeh CDP 1,292 3.3 +0.5
Robert Aiken IND 564 1.4 +1.4
Zarif Abdulla CDP 479 1.2 +0.5

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Robert Furolo ALP 24,308 70.5 -13.5
Michael Hawatt LIB 10,173 29.5 +13.5

Booth breakdown
Booths in Lakemba have been divided into three areas: Belmore in the east, Lakemba in the centre, and Peakhurst-Riverwood in the west.

The ALP polled around 84-85% in all of those areas in 2007. The 2008 by-election saw a result of around 69-71% in all three areas.

Polling booths in Lakemba at the 2007 state election. Belmore in green, Lakemba in yellow, Peakhurst-Riverwood in blue.

2007 election breakdown

Voter group GRN % CDP % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Lakemba 4.2 3.5 85.4 14,948 34.6
Peakhurst-Riverwood 2.8 4.8 84.1 12,139 28.1
Belmore 4.0 4.0 84.2 9,212 21.3
Other votes 5.0 3.4 80.5 6,879 15.9

2008 by-election breakdown

Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Lakemba 12.0 71.5 14,466 36.6
Peakhurst-Riverwood 12.2 69.2 11,658 29.5
Belmore 14.6 71.3 8,758 22.1
Other votes 9.0 69.0 4,658 11.8
Two-party-preferred votes in Lakemba at the 2007 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes at the 2008 Lakemba by-election.
Greens primary votes at the 2008 Lakemba by-election.

9 COMMENTS

  1. Obviously Labor will hold this, but I’d expect the margin to be closer to the by-election’s margin, as I think the 2007 margin contains a large personal support for Morris Iemma.

  2. Amazing how safe it was even on the by-election results. Yeah Morris would’ve had an impact on the 2007 margin, but the by-election still has Labor on 20%+.

  3. no you didn’t understand what I wrote….. just as the Sutherland shire is moving towards the Liberals
    so the Lakemba electorate is moving towards Labor. I don’t mean for this election I mean as the overall
    pattern over time……. Of course Lakemba is and will be a confirmed Labor seat

Comments are closed.