ALP 29.0%
Incumbent MP
Nick Lalich, since 2008.
Geography
South-western Sydney. Cabramatta covers southeastern parts of the City of Fairfield, including Cabramatta, Canley Heights, Mount Pritchard, Bonnyrigg, Canley Vale and Lansvale.
History
The electoral district of Cabramatta has existed since 1981. It has been held by four MPs, all members of the Labor Party.
The seat was first won in 1981 by Eric Bedford, who had held Fairfield since 1968. He served as a minister in the Wran government from 1976 until his retirement in 1985.
The 1986 by-election was won by Fairfield deputy mayor John Newman. He held the seat until his death in 1994. Phuong Ngo, a former independent candidate for Cabramatta, was convicted of Newman’s murder.
The 1994 by-election was won by Reba Meagher. She was appointed to the Labor government’s ministry following the 2003 election. She served in the ministry until 2008, when she was removed from the ministry as part of events which saw the downfall of NSW Premier Morris Iemma. Her final portfolio was as Health Minister after the 2007 state election.
The 2008 Cabramatta by-election saw a massive 21.8% swing against the ALP. The seat was won by Fairfield mayor Nick Lalich. He was challenged by Liberal candidate Dai Le. The swing was one of the biggest in NSW history. It would have been a record prior to the by-election, but was surpassed by a 23.1% swing in the seat of Ryde, which held a by-election on the same day. Both seats’ records were beaten at the 2010 Penrith by-election.
Candidates
- Daniel Griffiths (Greens)
- Peter Tadros (Christian Democratic Party)
- Dai Le (Liberal)
- Nick Lalich (Labor)
Political situation
Based on the 2007 election margin, Cabramatta is the second-safest Labor seat in New South Wales. While there was a swing of over 21% in 2008, it seems extremely unlikely that the Liberal Party could maintain that entire swing in a general election, and gain the extra 8% required to win the seat. Dai Le is a strong Liberal candidate for a seat such as Cabramatta, but the ALP should hold the seat.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Reba Meagher | ALP | 29,962 | 69.1 | +3.1 |
| Victor Smith | LIB | 7,082 | 16.3 | +4.7 |
| Andrew Su | UNI | 3,343 | 7.7 | +7.7 |
| Rodrigo Gutierrez | GRN | 2,988 | 6.9 | +3.8 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Reba Meagher | ALP | 31,584 | 79.0 | -2.4 |
| Victor Smith | LIB | 8,373 | 21.0 | +2.4 |
2008 by-election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Nick Lalich | ALP | 21,423 | 51.0 | -18.1 |
| Dai Le | LIB | 15,347 | 36.5 | +20.1 |
| Lindsay Langlands | GRN | 3,775 | 9.0 | +2.1 |
| Doug Morrison | CDP | 673 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Joseph Adams | IND | 650 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Alasdair Macdonald | IND | 168 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
2008 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Nick Lalich | ALP | 21,933 | 57.2 | -21.8 |
| Dai Le | LIB | 16,396 | 42.8 | +21.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Cabramatta have been divided into four areas. Lansvale covers the eastern end of the seat, Cabramatta covers the centre and is the most populous. The western end of the seat has been grouped as Bonnyrigg. The two booths in the Mount Pritchard area have also been grouped together.
At the 2007 election, the ALP’s margin varied from under 71% in Mount Pritchard to 83.7% in Cabramatta. The multicultural Unity Party outpolled the Greens in Cabramatta and Lansvale, where they polled over 10%. Bonnyrigg and Mount Pritchard were best for the Greens.
At the 2008 by-election, the ALP’s margins collapsed across the seat. The Liberal Party managed to win a 51.5% majority in Lansvale, compared to only 24.5% in 2007. The ALP’s margin in the rest of the seat varied from 55% in Cabramatta to 59% in Bonnyrigg. The biggest swing was in Cabramatta, where the ALP’s vote fell from 83.7% to 55.2%, a swing of 28.5%.
The Greens gained more votes in all parts of the seat, although their best performance was in Mount Pritchard, with 12.5%, up from 7.5% in 2007.
2007 election breakdown
| Voter group | GRN % | UNI % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Cabramatta | 6.1 | 10.2 | 83.7 | 17,133 | 39.5 |
| Bonnyrigg | 7.3 | 5.7 | 79.0 | 12,567 | 29.0 |
| Mount Pritchard | 7.5 | 4.0 | 70.9 | 4,333 | 10.0 |
| Lansvale | 6.0 | 10.0 | 75.5 | 3,598 | 8.3 |
| Other votes | 8.5 | 6.1 | 74.7 | 5,744 | 13.2 |
2008 by-election breakdown
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Cabramatta | 8.9 | 55.2 | 13,148 | 31.3 |
| Bonnyrigg | 9.2 | 59.4 | 12,227 | 29.1 |
| Mount Pritchard | 12.5 | 57.0 | 4,352 | 10.4 |
| Lansvale | 9.4 | 48.5 | 3,227 | 7.7 |
| Other votes | 6.9 | 60.4 | 9,082 | 21.6 |
Sorry, I didn’t mean a poll 65/35 in Cabramatta to the Libs, I meant the overall Newspoll last week (I think it was Newspoll). Yes, it was poor on my part. Sorry!
In Cabramatta it’s very close and no-one has been more than 10 votes ahead of the other in rolling samples of 200.
DLH – yes, there are about 7 candidates in that add which are in ALP held seats the Libs are targeting. John Dorahy (Keira), Glenn Brookes (East Hills) and Michael Fenealy (Maroubra) are three others in that ad. Probably the most impressive ad of the whole campaign by either side.
More bizzare than anything else, Labor are now trying to smear Le by sending out leaflets in Chinese and Vietnamese claiming she supports One Nation and Pauline Hanson!
A roundabout leap of logic involving Chris Spence (former One Nation member) and Le running as candidates for the same party…..therefore, Le must agree with Spence’s supoprt for Pauline Hanson. Or something.
Well, it certainly shows Labor is worried about the seat if they’ve tried something as ham-fisted as that.
Why believe coalition committed to health reform without implementing the Preventive Health?
It’s all about power and money most Politicians and parties wanted above all and after all election?
Just listen how Barry O’Farrell convincing voters: “The key to our program is giving medical professionals a bigger say in how health services are delivered in their area. These are the people who know what their patients need…so we will be listening to them”.
Take a look below the link subject: “Time for Action” in “Healthy Active Life” program that convert Broken hill into a Healthy Las Vergas Broken Hill economy? Link with http://www.streetcorner.com.au/news/showPost.cfm?bid=20747&mycomm=ES
… .
When we look at what Kevin Rudd’s labor government has expend John Howard’s coalition government endorsed Preventive Health program into “Healthy Active Life” program phase 1-2 before oust.
Will you then still believe Mr Barry O’Farrell’s coalition opposition is committed to health reform (put some money in some hospital if you liked)? Then call it rebuild the hospital system through Better Hospitals and Healthcare program? A truly health reform that would fix all health problems?
Will you also believe there were only 1-2 Politicians responding to this greatest “Healthy Las Vergas Broken Hill economy model”?
Why the most Politicians do fail their own test in spend little brain work to come up some innovative idea that truly achieve the health reform materialized benefits to all voters?
Masealake (Member of Inventor Association QLD)
Lalich looks certain to hang on. A great result for Labor, really. I know people were quoting the 2007 margin, but looking at the 2008 by-election margin, you had to say that Dai Le and the Liberals lost their only chance in at least a generation to win Cabramatta, on its present boundaries.
This was probably the most disappointing seat in the Fairfield LGA for the Liberals. They expected much better. The legacy of Phoung Ngo, in Lalich, lives on for another four years. I cannot wait for the day, when a Labor candidate stands for Cabramatta without any tangible links to that man.
Why believe coalition economic plan works without revitalize agriculture and manufacture industries??
It’s all about power and money most Politicians and parties wanted above all and after all election?
Just listen how Barry O’Farrell convincing voters: “People are our asset. They are our greatest wealth and they should be given the opportunity to pursue their dreams?” On the issue of economic management, Mr O’Farrell was asked what he thought was the state’s greatest source of wealth, given NSW lacked a resources industry.
Take a look below the link subject: “Time for Action” in “Healthy Active Life” program that convert Broken hill into a Healthy Las Vergas Broken Hill economy? Link with http://www.streetcorner.com.au/news/showPost.cfm?bid=20747&mycomm=ES
… .
When we look at what today’s shrinking industries, such of agriculture (34% of fruit and 19% of vegetables imported); manufacture (10.5% by 2005–6) destructed by John Howard’s coalition government.
Will you then still believe Mr Barry O’Farrell’s coalition opposition announced positive and practical policies which will help revitalize agriculture and manufacture industries for create more sustainable jobs, and innovative export products?
Remember, it’s not one person to construct or destruct the whole lots of industries, it’s the matter of whole political party/government?
Will you also believe there were only 1-2 Politicians responding to this greatest “Healthy Las Vergas Broken Hill economy model”?
Why the most Politicians do fail their own test in spend little brain work to revitalize agriculture and manufacture industries who with $1.65 million Tax payer’s money each annual spending for?
Masealake (Member of Inventor Association QLD)
As a Labor supporter I am disgusted in what tactics Lalich took against Dai Le. This is totally Un Australian & Lalich should have a good look at himself. It’s people like you who The ALP could do without!
Shame, Shame, Shame!
If Libs won’t win Cabramatta now they won’t ever win Cabramatta these few decades
Crazymongross
I am going to suggest, anytime the ALP are celebrating winning Cabramatta, means that the ALP is really struggling
dovif: hahaha you are correct
We also celebrated wildly winning Blacktown, Toongabbie and Maroubra. This is not a usual time, the ALP is really struggling, I don’t think that’s news to a single person on this site.
Crazedmongoose – don’t worry. You guys will be back. The ALP aren’t dead in NSW. I think they will try to strangle the life out of the Greens however, like Gillard is doing federally.
Look at it this way, after those last few disastrous years, you still managed 20-22 to the Greens perhaps 1. Someone’s supporting you.
I think Luke Foley had a good line on Saturday, the election isnt the end of Labor, how it reacts to the loss maybe.
Making Robbo leader would be a great start to finishing them off. I reckon he might be just the ticket for a dead cat bounce in four years time.
Why believe Premier Barry O’Farrell able to deliver commitments meeting NSW $4.5 billion black hole not to explore a Health Olympic?
Although Premier Barry O’Farrell has signed a contract to the people of NSW to deliver commitments, and that contract will be honoured.
An honourable government is importantly to advancing the state, to create more opportunities for people to work on, and to ease the cost of their life that in happy to stay such state.
Why a Health Olympic guarantee NSW back to number one state?
• Inventing health improvement patterns;
• Growing high antioxidant healthy grains and plants;
• Manufacturing high antioxidant healthy grain powder products;
• Exporting its health improvement knowledge and pattern; and
• Exporting health improvement resources (including human resources).
More detail linked to http://www.streetcorner.com.au/news/showPost.cfm?bid=20747&mycomm=ES, or http://www.liberal.org.au/ActionContract/Action-Contract-4.aspx#129458356716694000.
Masealake
(Member of the Queensland Inventor Association since 1993).
Where do I start here? Nick Lalich and the Labor scare tactics worked a treat here, because based on the numbers I have read, I can’t believe he won this seat at all.
The numbers in the Lalich strongholds of Bonnyrigg, St Johns Park, Greenfield Park and Wakeley don’t make for pleasant reading from a Labor perspective. The Liberals made up enough ground here, that if the vote held up in Cabramatta, Lansvale and Canley Vale, along with the better than expected numbers in Mt Pritchard and Cabramatta West, it was a certainty that Le would win the seat.
Instead, what I saw was some wildly varying numbers compared to the 2008 by-election. To put it nicely, Le was absolutely flogged in Cabramatta, Canley Vale and Lansvale, with the exception of two or three booths. I just don’t get it. Other than the scare tactics, I just don’t know where Le and the Liberals went wrong. Was there poor groundwork on election day? This is a result, which beggars belief. A once in a generation chance gone begging. This seat, in my opinion, won’t be pure again, until Lalich retires, and the last vestiges of links to Phoung Ngo have disappeared.
Labor should be pleased with the result here. The Liberals, on the other hand, should be wondering where they went wrong.
Lalich has indicated he’ll resign as Mayor at the end of Council term. No names have been mentioned yet, but I’m fairly certain that the main contenders are the Khoshabas (Ninos isn’t on Council), with the outsider being Lawrence White. There was talk of Le running for the Liberals, but that would be a waste of time. The usual suspects in Oliveri and Molluso would be my guess.