Balmain – NSW 2011

ALP 3.7% vs GRN

Incumbent MP
Verity Firth, since 2007.

Geography
Inner Sydney. Balmain covers the entirety of Leichhardt local government area, including Balmain, Leichhardt, Lilyfield, Annandale and Rozelle, as well as Haberfield in the City of Ashfield and Glebe in the City of Sydney.

History
Balmain has existed as an electoral district in various forms since 1880. In that time it has covered a variety of different areas all around the Balmain peninsula. The original seat was created as a single-member district in 1880.

Back in the 19th century, districts would gain extra MPs if the population in the area grew, instead of experiencing regular redistributions. Balmain quickly gained extra MLAs, gaining a second in 1882, a third in 1885 and a fourth in 1889. Ironically the four-seat district of 1889 bore a close resemblance to the modern seat’s boundaries.

In 1894, Balmain was abolished and replaced by the single-member districts of South Balmain, North Balmain, Leichhardt and Annandale.

In 1904, Balmain was re-created when Balmain Southand Balmain Northwere merged. It elected a Liberal MP in 1904, but in 1907 it was won by the ALP’s John Storey in 1907. He had previously held Balmain Northfrom 1901 to 1904.

The NSW Labor Party split in 1916 over conscription, with most of the Holman government, including William Holman itself, expelled. Storey became leader of the remnants of the ALP in 1917.

In the lead-up to the 1920 election the seat of Balmain was expanded to cover parts of the neighbouring seats of Annandale, Camperdown, Darling Harbour, Glebe and Rozelle, and became a five-member district elected by proportional representation.

At the 1920 election, the expanded Balmain elected four Labor members and one Nationalist. The ALP won a slim majority, and Storey became Premier. He served until his death in 1921.

Balmain elected three Labor and two Nationalist MPs in 1922, and again elected four Labor members in 1925.

The 1927 election saw a return to single-member districts, and Balmain reduced to a smaller single-member district. At that year’s election, the official Labor candidate, Harry Doran, was challenged by sitting Labor MLA HV Evatt, who had been elected as a member for the multi-member Balmain district in 1925. Evatt won re-election as an independent Labor candidate.

In 1930, Evatt was appointed to the High Court and didn’t contest Balmain. John Quirk, whose neighbouring seat of Rozelle had been abolished in the redistribution, was elected in Balmain for the ALP. Evatt later went on to serve as a federal MP, federal minister, and leader of the federal ALP from 1951 to 1960.

Quirk died in 1938, and the 1939 Balmain by-election was won by his wife Mary. She held the seat until 1950, when she ran as an independent after losing Labor preselection. She lost to official Labor candidate John McMahon.

McMahon served as a minister in the Labor government from 1959 until the government lost power in 1965, and he retired in 1968.

Roger Degen held Balmain for the ALP from 1968 until his retirement in 1984. That year the seat was won by Peter Crawford.

In 1988, Crawford lost Balmain to former Olympic swimmer Dawn Fraser, running as an independent and ending over 80 years of Labor domination in Balmain.

Fraser held the seat for one term. In 1991, Balmain was abolished, and Fraser was defeated in an attempt to win the new seat of Port Jackson.

Port Jackson was won in 1991 by Sandra Nori of the ALP. Nori held the seat until 2007. In 2003, Port Jackson was the main target for the Greens, with Jamie Parker reducing Nori’s margin to 7.3%.

In 2007, Port Jackson was again renamed Balmain, and shifted west to lose Ultimo, Pyrmont and Sydney CBD and gained Haberfield. Nori retired, and the ALP preselected City of Sydney councillor Verity Firth. Greens councillor Rochelle Porteous reduced the ALP margin to 3.8%.

Candidates

Political situation
Balmain is the strongest seat for the Greens in New South Wales. Despite a long history of ALP domination in the area, the Greens have made significant inroads in recent years. The Greens now hold six out of twelve seats on Leichhardt Council and have a strong presence with the inner western demographic that dominates Balmain and neighbouring Marrickville. When you also factor in the deep unpopularity of the Labor government, there is certainly a strong chance the Greens could win.

On the other hand, Firth has quite high popularity considering the state of the ALP, and could hold on to many voters who would otherwise consider voting Green.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Verity Firth ALP 16,562 39.2 -2.9
Rochelle Porteous GRN 12,471 29.5 +0.2
Peter Shmigel LIB 10,031 23.8 +2.7
Jane Ward IND 1,297 3.1 +3.1
Jane Hyde IND 987 2.3 +2.3
Edward Okulicz DEM 881 2.1 -0.3

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Verity Firth ALP 17,933 53.8 -3.2
Rochelle Porteous GRN 15,431 46.2 +3.2

Booth breakdown
Booths in Balmain have been divided into four areas. The bulk of the seat is contained in Leichhardt local government area, and the booths in that area have been divided between Balmain, covering the suburbs on the peninsula, and Leichhardt, covering the southern parts of the council area.

Booths in Ashfield council area have been grouped as Haberfield, and booths in the City of Sydney have been grouped as Glebe.

The Greens won a slim 50.4% majority in the Balmain area. The ALP won majorities of 54-55% in Leichhardt and Glebe, and a larger majority of almost 65% in Haberfield, boosted by a large 31% for the Liberal Party. The Liberals got 27% in Balmain, 21% in Leichhardt, and their lowest vote was 16% in Glebe.

 

Polling booths in Balmain at the 2007 state election. Balmain in blue, Leichhardt in green, Glebe in orange, Haberfield in yellow.
Voter group Lib % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Leichhardt 21.6 54.9 13,705 32.5
Balmain 27.4 49.6 10,045 23.8
Glebe 16.4 53.9 6,166 14.6
Haberfield 31.8 64.7 3,622 8.6
Other votes 24.8 52.6 8,633 20.5
Two-party-preferred (Labor vs Greens) votes in Balmain at the 2007 state election.
Liberal primary votes in Balmain at the 2007 state election.

209 COMMENTS

  1. Perhaps Crazedmongoose or some other Labor person could confirm, but a rumour I heard is the Labor are giving Sheehan preferences, and then the Greens. No one is giving anything to Labor though.

  2. Sheehan will takes votes from all over the place. enough to muddy the waters even more than they are already. I’m less confident of picking this now than before, though my position has shifted as events have unfolded…

    (1) first I tipped the Libs – a slender win
    (2) When Verity made it clear (since confirmed) that she was preferencing the Greens, I gave it to Parker.
    (3) With Sheehan in… I still reckon its a Greens win on back of Labor’s prefs. But its getting pretty damn murky out there.

    Interestingly, Parker lashed out at Sheehan today. But then has previously angrily denounced Labor for “trashing the progressive vote.”

    But when did he own that? Considerings his Nimby-controlled Council, dominated by some of the wealthiest property owners in the country, that’s an absurd notion.

  3. Have no fucking idea who will win this with Sheehan now contesting. We could see Falk winning – imagine a Liberal member for Balmain, where the ALP was invented!

  4. Morgieb I think the only people who will be astonished by a Liberal win are people who have no idea of what the electorate is now like. That includes two newspapers who have written features about Balmain and not even mentioned (not once) the person who will get the most first prefs – James Falk from the Libs.

    Their attitude is a combination of ignorance, ideology and wishful thinking. Everyone, just everyone (including Antony Green and most posters on this site) have given this seat to the Greens.

    Very few of those people have a clue, understand Balmain, or know what the Greens run Leichhardt Council does. The people who live here do.

    But rest easy, tallyroomers. Balmain is still most likely a Greens win – via Labor’s prefs.

  5. Crazedmongoose – Greens are second. I don’t believe the ALP are a chance here. Actually I’d say they are about a 15% chance of winning the seat. Polling is putting them at between 20-28% of primaries here behind both the Liberals and the Greens. With Sheehan now contesting it is worse for Firth I would have thought.

    The ALP are wasting their time here. They should be putting their efforts into Strathfield.

    I predict the Greens to win on the back of ALP preferences.

  6. Notwithstanding the Green fall in support in newspoll, Falk is out from 6.00 to 7.00 on Centrebet.

    Maybe a reaction to the strong Green vote next door in Marrickville ala Galaxy?

    Nonetheless I reckon there’s some value in Falk here.

  7. DB: Factional and personal loyalty means that ain’t going to happen. Though I’ve been saying for ages that we need to be relocating resources to the trifecta of winnable Left seats, namely Toongabbie, Granville and Macquarie Fields.

  8. The inclusion of former councillor Maire Sheehan is said to provide a boost to the ALP’s chances in this seat. Polling from the weekend does not suggest this to be the case. On a poll of 400 persons, Libs 36%, Green 29%, ALP 24% and Sheehan 7%. Who knows where Sheehan preferences will go. But you would expect that just about all of them would have to go to the ALP for Firth to get above the Greens and make it a Lib/ALP battle. Sheehan has before supported both Liberal and Labor ideologies, so I’m not sure if this is a boost to the ALP but more of a boost for the Liberals here. Probably a very good seat to have a punt on the Liberal candidate who is extremely strong.

  9. DB, those figures are very close to what I put in print over the weekend. I was soundly rapped over the knuckles by a well-known Greens operative for putting the Libs in front. Apparently I have “fervent hope based on no apparent evidence.”

    Your poll is pretty “apparent” but really, it is still safe to say this is a Greens win.

    Sheehan is not allocating prefs, but saying they should go to “the progressives”. There are many around who still think that the Greens are “progressive”, even in Balmain. Labor is pref-ing Sheehan and then the Greens. No one is giving prefs to Labor.

    For anyone who needs a bit of background on Sheehan, here’s a bit:
    Election battle for Balmain wide open – ABC Sydney – Australian Broadcasting Corporation

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/15/3164181.htm?site=sydney

  10. Russell – I suspect the Liberal primary support is a little understated here given the response the candidate has received. I reckon the Liberal will poll about 40% on primary, however, I too expect the Greens to win from the Liberal Party probably by about 2-6%.

  12. Lib workers have been pulled from Maroubra (too long a shot) and Drummoyne (a sure thing) to focus on Balmain. Just this morning I saw Libs handing out leaflets at Annandale and then a different lot an hour later in Leichhardt.

    I now consider Fiona Byrne more likely than Jamie Parker and, if I could bring myself to bet on the Libs, would consider Falk @ $6 good value.

  14. Save your money Hamish, even though he will come first, I can’t see James Falk getting high enough primary to beat the preference flow from 3rd placed Labor to the Greens. I hope the Greens (after they have finished attacking her) give Verity a bunch of flowers as a “thank you” next sunday morning. Labor’s preference decision has given them this seat on a platter. Considering how much the Greens spent winning it too, they could have saved their money and used it elsewhere.

  15. But given how the Greens have attacked Firth, Labor voters may not preference as well as the Greens like.

    Parker is a strong favourite, but I’d take 6/1 for the Lib if it is going.

  17. Hmm… it’s funny how we don’t read stories about Jamie Parker like the Sun-Hearld’s one in our local press, the Inner West Courier and the Inner West “Independent”. Oh, yes, there’s that big fat advertising dollar from Leichhardt Council…

  18. this is the great unknown of the election…. will voters follow a political party how to vote
    after their first preference? In Balmain clearly approx 2/3 of the voters dont want a lib
    but they may get one courtesy of the split progressive vote and the high rate of exhaustion.
    Labor voters may well refuse to preference the greens. I understand….. In the senate net time round
    I will have great difficulty giving my 2nd preference to the Greens

  20. ALP right to rule mentality seems to keep surfacing in their dealings with the Greens, that at least seems to be the sub text in the comments of many ALP members and supporters – till they get over that attitude they will continue to struggle.

  21. Doug, really? “ALP right to rule mentality…” In Balmain, the ALP is preferencing the Greens (via an independent who will be eliminated) and hence giving them the seat. Does this fit with your theory? and @ Mick Quinlivan, you are right to speculate. Many Labor voters will be confused by that HTV, provided they understand what it is doing, and will refuse to follow it.

    I still think this is a Greens win, but once again, events are shifting, and its all getting trickier and trickier to predict.

  22. Russell – trickier I agree with. Trickier really means here that the Liberals are in with a big shot of Balmain. But shoosh, don’t tell anyone…

  23. re: Greens getting no seats – always a possibility when you are polling 11-12% statewide – just ask the Vic Greens. Yes, I know there are differences between the two (optional vs compulsory preferential, Green vs ALP contests as opposed to what appears to be a Green vs Liberal contest in Balmain), but the point is, until the Greens are polling 20% statewide (and recognising the tendency of its voters to be concentrated in the inner city) these races will always be a close run thing. The same goes for the LC – while the Greens look good for 3 MLCs now (at 11-12&, it only takes a slight slip (to say 10.5-11%) in primary for it to become 2 MLCs. That’s just a fact of minor party electoral life.

  24. Sensible comment – should be noted in Victoria that in 2007 in the Upper House only one of the three upper house seats that they won looked reasonably clear on the night.

    In the 2011 election they had two seat reasonably firm on the night and came home with the third OK.

    The other generalisation about the Greens worth considering beyond the the proposal that there vote will be less than polling a couple of weeks out is that in a proportional count they will do better they than look on the night and that there state wide vote will be proportionately higher than it is at the close of counting on election night.

  25. Interesting that Hatton has come out to support Sheehan, who has a colourful history with Horny Goat Packer

    With the left vote split 3 ways, it is now more likely that Liberals will win this seat.

    Which should be great news for the ALP, since disloging the Liberals from her might be easier then getting out the Greens, except for the fact that the ALP is preferencing the Green

  26. I think you mean “Parker” dovif. Mr Parker has not been impressed by the fourth estate’s renewed interest in his business affairs, and you may find all references to “Horny Goats” are being monitored for future reference, dovif. Take care, my friend. “Freedom of expression” in Tibet is one thing, in Australia, it’s another…

  27. We’re forgetting his business partner getting prosecuted by the DPP. Seriously, the fact that despite these scandals the Greens are still favorites to win says alot about how much ALP has lost the progressive vote.

    I agree dovif. I always said that we should NOT be preferencing Greens tactically. Because if we lose it to the Libs we lose it for a term, where as if we lose it to the Greens we lose it for AT LEAST a generation.

  28. So the Libs will finish first here but the winner will be decided by who finishes second. Since the ALP are preferencing the Greens if the Greens finish second, they’ll probably win on ALP preferences. If the ALP can finish second it should be a tight race between them and the Libs, with the Libs favoured.

  29. So much congratulatory nonsense about the “progressive” vote… Sorry, crazy mongoose, and I know you are not alone in all this self-flagelating, but lets not forget that the voters of Balmain are some of the richest property owners in Sydney. The fact that they are voting for a “turbo-charged Nimby” (David Penberthy) makes absolute financial sense.

    This is Greens heartland. Soon that will be in the east and north shore, terrifying the Libs.

    Penbo’s take on all this is worth reading, even for those who despise (not me) the Tele. He used to live in Balmain.

    http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/the-weird-unscrutinised-world-of-the-nsw-greens/desc/

  30. No offense meant in my last post, Crazedmongoose (I”ve appreciated your insiders insight greatly) but have you any theory about why Labor is preferencing the Greens in Balmain? Parker can’t win without those votes, so what’s it all about?

    And the ALPs decision is even odder in Drummoyne… no point at all. Maybe the triumph of sentiment over reason?

  31. I think that wacky tobaccy that has been used by a couple of members here is in the hands of Russell.

    Your suggestion that the North Shore and the Northern Beaches will eventually become genuine Green opportunities makes about as much sense as Dame Edna Everage taking up welding. The Liberal voters in the north are a good mix of small-l and capital C member. The closest you will actually come to winning a seat up here will be Manly. To win seats up here, you need a high-profile independent.

  32. Russell

    The rich conservative voters are often capitalist who made lots of money from Business and capitalism. They are as far away a group of people you will find then the Greens, yes, there might be some electorate where the ALP are so bad that Green will finish 2nd, but the Greens are never going to get more then 15-20% of the vote

  33. Obviously Hawkeye, I disagree with you about the Green vote being “progressive” at all. In Balmain (an area I know well), their local support is almost exclusively property based and centred around Nimby issues. The people there a very little different from those on the North Shore and Eastern suburbs, in fact many are recent arrivals from those areas seeking slightly cheaper (in vain mostly) property.

    Greens voter are already the wealthiest voting block (median income). There has been lots of discussion on this site and elsewhere of the growing Greens vote in the east and north, many observers noting the battlefield is swinging to Greens vs Liberal.

    In Balmain, that has already happened. I do think the 30%+ mark is about as high as it will ever go anywhere, even with a dysfunctional highly unpopular major party in office, but you can win seats on that number, especially with OPV.

  34. There’s been a huge plunge on Balmain at Sportsbet – Parker is now at $1.60, “Any Other Party” is at $2.50. Not much change at Sportingbet though.

  36. I got Falk at 6.00 a few weeks ago with Centrebet. I agree – great value. Not convinced he’ll win though.

  38. I see the Liberals as being the dark horse here and a much bigger chance than the ALP. The betting agencies must be relying on at least a 60% Green preference flow from the ALP. The Libs will probably take out the primary.

  39. Jamie Parker is a fruitloop – as Labor is going to be decimated anyway, the Libs might as well add to their record majority.

  41. Parker is a calculating, well seasoned politician compared to his mate Fiona Byrne on the other side of Parramatta Road. His political judgement is far better than Byrne’s. Take the anti-Israel BDS in Marrickville for example, Parker made sure he well distanced himself from this divisive issue and good on him for doing do.

  42. Ben is quite correct, Jamie Parker is not a “fruitloop”, in fact he is seasoned campaigner (he even stood in Bennelong once, I believe) and has navigated both the minefield of Leichhardt Council politics, and the changing demography of Balmain (now moving against him) with huge success so far. This is his “once in a lifetime” chance. If he doesn’t swing it this time, perhaps he really should go back to marketing.

    But I do think he will make it this time, based on Labor’s odd HTV (he is no.3) which really, gives him the seat on a platter. I hope he will be gracious enough to send Verity a bunch of flowers, or at least a “thank you” on Sunday morning. It sure will beat waking up to another Sun-Herald (for both of them).

    And seriously, her decision to preference him really was one of the strangest political moves I have ever seen.

  43. Russell, for the ALP, better the Greens getting the seat than the Libs. The local branches probably couldn’t stand for the seat at the heart of the workers movement ever falling to the Liberals.

    For all the acrimony between the Greens and Labor, they know they would work better together and achieve their goals than either with the Liberals.

  44. Most of my ALP friends in Balmain deconst are very keen for a liberal win….they have now written Verity off. The main reason is they think it will be easier to take it from the Libs in 2015 than the Greens…but as one put it to me the other day, this time its pleasure before business!!!

  45. Mod lib – totally agree with that view. The ALP will find it more difficult to get this back off the Greens.

  46. Jamie will only have one term. Its the Libs in 2015, and probably forever after.

    I was just looking at the “reckless predictions” posts. So much “faith, hope and fantasy” posted.

  47. I daresay the Greens will curse the name Maire Sheehan forever more. Looks like she will hand Verity a gift wrapped second term. And now they want to make Verity deputy leader. The people of Balmain could have stopped this in 2011 now we will all have to pay a much higher price to stop the tyranny.

  48. I guess that means “the people of Balmain” are idiots, right Millard? Fancy giving Sheehan that 3%… But “tyranny”? Are you serious? There is one reason and one reason only the Greens didn’t get the 5% swing in Balmain even BDS challenged Fiona did: Their candidate.

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