Fadden by-election, 2023

Bert Van Manen’s electorate office is right smack bang in the middle of Macalister after all.

@Laine well if the Coalition were to have a landslide victory and win 100 seats, I would expect them to win all of Queensland and the NT and maybe all of Tasmania if Andrew Wilkie was gone.

Anyway, QLD has no “very safe” Labor seats. Labor only has a few seats in QLD: Blair, Lilley, Moreton, Oxley and Rankin. The Greens have Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan. Bob Katter (KAP) has Kennedy. The LNP has: Bonner, Bowman, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Fadden (assuming they win the by-election), Fairfax, Fisher, Flynn, Forde, Groom, Herbert, Hinkler, Leichhardt, Longman, Maranoa, McPherson, Moncrieff, Petrie, Wide Bay and Wright. Dutton just needs to retain Dickson.

But you’re right in that Blair would be a possible gain for the LNP; although it has parts of Ipswich it also includes regional places like Beaudesert. All the other Labor seats in QLD are in Brisbane or Ipswich, plus the Greens have three in Brisbane and therefore the only regional seat in QLD not held by the LNP is Kennedy, which is held by the KAP so it’s still conservative-held. Similarly, on the federal level, the Coalition holds every regional seat in WA and all but one (Mayo) in SA, as well as most of the regional seats in NSW, VIC and TAS; they don’t (yet) have Lingiari though.

Why is there no candidates added yet? The Citizens Party, Labor, the LNP and One Nation all have announced candidates, plus there are several independents running. That’s not news; it’s been known for weeks.

I haven’t been paying attention to candidate announcements. Will update at some point.

Jan Pukallus at The Australian Citizens Party is announced as a candidate for Fadden QLD 2023

I’m curious as to why Labor won several booths here. They won Arundel East, Coombabah South, Labrador, Pimpama, Pimpama Central and Southport North. Obviously I predict that the LNP will retain it but still.

All of these except Pimpama and Southport North are in the safe LNP seat of Bonney on the state level (Pimpama is in Coomera, a marginal LNP seat, while Southport North is in Southport, also a marginal LNP seat).

@Nether Portal, read my first comment assessing the different booths in the first page of comments for this profile.

TLDR is Pimpama and Coomera are recently emerged mortgage belts. Heaps of young families living in newly constructed dwellings.

The booths you’ve identified around Labrador and Southport encompass a combination of university students, health-workers and renters in Gold Coast’s more affordable dwellings. Close to Griffith University and Gold Coast University Hospital.

@SEQ Observer so they are the younger suburbs (i.e more young people).

Yeah either side of the Coomera River has quite a stark contrast in age-profiles. There are parts of Pimpama and Coomera with a median age similar to parts of inner-city Brisbane. These parts of Coomera and Pimpama have large amounts of people born between 0 and 4 as well as 24 to 34 (representing-young families). Whereas south of the river has some of the highest amounts of people aged 55 and above and high amounts of home-ownership (outright). If you drift even further south in Fadden, you get fairly close to Griffith University and the Gold Coast University Hospital, around which young health professionals and students are housed within apartments and flats.

https://www.aec.gov.au/fadden/candidates.htm
13 candidates.

Labor in the top spot, followed by the Greens. LNP is in 12th, or second last, spot. Lots of former candidates from here and elsewhere will be running.

Wow. 13 candidates. The race for the second place after preferences is going to be super interesting. The seat can end up being non-classic if Labor primary vote is low and there are strong preference flows to a minor party or independent from other minor parties and independents (e.g. see 2022 Groom).

I reckon its time we adopt the Tasmanian system of randomized ballots

Being top of the ballot paper will not be so significant with so many candidates & distance between ALP & LNP candidates. Still better than being last? Is it true that LNPer Cameron Caldwell is Arthur’s grandson?

Roger, are you talking about former Labor leader Arthur Calwell? If so, then their surnames are different (Calwell vs Caldwell, with emphasis on the ‘D’)

@roger itll be a laor/liberal cnotest either way. who here finds it awfully convenient that they discovered these allegations 17 days from a by election. who here will change their vote either way?

@potatqes The entire reason Stuart Robert even resigned from parliament is because of the investigations into his role in the Robodebt fiasco. The fact that allegations have come out after his resignation is completely unsurprising.

agreed. even if it is convenient timing pigs will fly before labor wins this seat and the libs are shoe ins to win it anyway…

This seat is most likely to return a lnp candidate. The 10% margin and Mr Robert ‘s unhindered stay suggests this. BUT.. although unlikely an alp win is possible does anyone know what the qld state election figures translated to this seat would be? At a rough guess would suspect the margin was 4 to 5 % .. lnp win

If there is any LNP candidate who can blow this, It’s Caldwell, but as others say the margin is a big ask to overturn in 1 stroke. Unfortunately this will be an LNP retain and the only hope for Caldwells tenure to be short lived is a pre-selection challenge by Fran Ward (if they wanted a woman especially if Caldwell only wins narrowly this will panic the LNP to pick a better candidate next time) or a strong independent, although the Gold Coast is the safest place in the country for the Liberal party if you look at historic trends.

This area isn’t prime for teal candidates. Even the former Gold Coast mayor did very poorly in Broadwater in 2012 despite controversial LNP candidates, despite everything the mayor did poorly in Broadwater, and in 2007, the Gold Coast was still very safe for the LNP unlike the Sunshine Coast which was only marginal for the LNP in 2007 and 2010. Gold Coast is simply the most right-wing area with skyscrapers in the country. And I want to know why, stop saying retirees because there are plenty of areas with high retirees which are more competitive. It’s obviously income bracket and privileged kids who have parents who can buy them a Tesla for their 16th.

obviously the lnp will retain this but what do you think can be considered a ‘win’ for labor? i think if they get swings towards them north of the coomera river (especially in coomera, ormeau and pimpama) it may be indicative of a shifting national sentiment with mortgagees swinging to labor despite rising interest rates. @daniel t i think the reason the gold coast is so conservative is it’s mix of retirees, upper middle class nuclear families, and people employed in jobs that are more friendly to the lnp (real estate, business etc.). even though the more urban areas of the gold coast have stronger results for labor/the greens than nearby canal estates, these apartments often have ocean views with higher rents and thus attract a different crowd than an apartment in the suburbs of a capital city would, hence why surfers paradise and surrounds continue to vote liberal. basically, the demographics here are pretty much perfect for the lnp and akin to urban seats like cook and hughes, which won’t be alienated by the increasing right wing rhetoric of the coalition like most other urban seats.

Do we know which candidates own investment properties?

Thanks Yoh An for the info. This election is eerily quiet in the media.

Given there’s nothing to suggest anything but a LNP victory unlike Aston where there was a very real chance of an upset not a surprise that there is zero media coverage compared to say Aston or Warrandyte.

Over the weekend, the SMH published Resolve opinion polling which showed a 7% swing to Labor in Qld since last year’s federal election. Scroll down to the last paragraph.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-loses-ground-in-queensland-holds-winning-lead-nationwide-20230627-p5djy5.html

DanM: there wasn’t really much coverage of Aston in the national media either before the day. Watson watch: thanks for that – I didn’t read the full article on Sunday. If that’s right then Labor and Green primaries should easily exceed Liberals & there will “news” of a swing against Liberal/Dutton everywhere except in The Australia? Does Roberts have a personal vote? surely yes? Interesting is where UAP vote goes as Palmer spent teenage years on Gold Coast (after he left Beijing) and would have some personal support there?

The betting-line is currently underrating the chance of a ONP pick up here (relative to other candidates). They’ve got ONP paying $34 along with the rest of the field. In all honestly, I think any of the candidates in the field (outside of LNP, ALP, ONP and GRN) should be paying $100+ or even $1000+. There is just no realistic circumstances where the field are likely to win. The shorter odds I imagine reflect the uncertainty (given no polling to draw from) and smaller security of punters’ money that the bookies would be picking up on a line like this.

ONP will likely be the second-last candidate excluded, meaning they will be in 3CP at the very end. If either ALP or LNP crater in their support, ONP might make it into 2CP. But the chances of ALP vote cratering is very unlikely given that ALP will have momentum delivering them a higher first preference vote than last time. LNP’s vote cratering is unlikely because they have a relatively high floor of a rusted on base in this division.

At the Federal Election, Greens started with a higher first-preference vote than ONP in Fadden, but eventually fell-short in the progressed preference count. The Greens are currently paying $14. I think that ONP should have indicative odds more closely in-line with the Greens here. I do agree though that the Greens have perhaps grown their base of support in South East Queensland since their miraculous win of the three inner-city Brisbane City seats. Although recent polling of Queensland does suggest that the ONP vote is gradually creeping up again too. This time in Fadden, ONP are not in the field with UAP like at the 2022 election. Last time, UAP picked up just over 6% of the vote and two-thirds of these votes fell behind ONP after exclusion. This time, ONP will likely see an increase of their first-preference vote to beyond 10%, picking up votes from those who voted for UAP last-year.

Independents are paying $21, lower indicative chance of winning than the Greens and slightly higher chance than the candidates in the field, which I think is fair. And yes there is a crowded field of three Independents, so one of the three Independents getting up should be given a bit more of a chance than one of one Independents (this outcome has three different shots, whereas the other candidates only have one shot). The Independents contesting aren’t attracting much public or media interest either, these aren’t “teal-style” Independents.

A vote snowball of any of the candidates outside of ALP or LNP is unlikely to overcome the ~10% hurdle they will have to clear to make it into 2CP. Like 2022, the preferences from the field are probably just going to consolidate into two distinct left-right snowballs behind ONP and the Greens before each are excluded (unable to make the jump beyond LNP or ALP). If the preference snowball consolidates behind an Independent who is able to surpass ONP or the Greens, they will have a better shot at hoovering preferences and hurdling into 2CP. Again however, I think ONP and Greens will be excluded last.

One of the biggest x factors here will be the Legalise Cannabis Party. Both Greens and ONP have had their votes noticeably impacted by the presence of Cannabis parties, especially in Queensland. Both should expect to have their first-preferences depressed by LCP in this by-election.

Roger, Palmer also has one of his residences within Fadden I believe. Palmer has also spent much of his adult life (including some of his political career) on the Gold Coast too. He also has previously owned the Gold Coast United Football Club. So yes he does somewhat have a bit of a personal following/base on the Gold Coast. This is reflected in the consistently higher UAP vote on the Gold Coast relative to other parts of Queensland. It’s highest base of support on the Gold Coast was in some of the elections prior to the Queensland Nickel controversy and subsequent ONP surge in the 2017 State Election.

As I mentioned above, around two-thirds of UAP’s (~6%) votes fell behind ONP at the last election and will likely do the same this election.

I just noticed Antony Green is on one of his renowned cycling trips in France.

I’ll do the honours of keeping score of the progressive count of pre-poll and postal votes over the next few days.

As of 6am this morning:

Early voting:
Helensvale – 2,630 votes
Runaway Bay – 3,769 votes
Postal Votes – 4,214 votes (of 17,708 applicants)
Total – 10,613

Total electors – 130,912
Turnout in 2022 – 86.54% – 110,531 (of 127,812)

Antony Green is just making the most of this relatively quiet time. There’s currently an election drought. In 2024/25 there’ll be five state/territory elections plus the federal election.

Stuart Robert’s departure ironically exposed him more and made more light of his controversies. Part of me thinks that when a controversial member leaves parliament, there’ll be a swing away from their party. It happened at Aston and at the QLD state level e.g. Redcliffe, Stafford (these may be outliers as it was during Campbell Newman’s term) and at the NSW state level e.g. Wagga Wagga. These are extreme examples when the seats flipped.

I’m certain that the LNP will hold. The swing will be of most interest, as I might’ve alluded to previously in this thread.

@SEQ Observer, I thought UAP is more popular on the Sunshine Coast, even though Palmer lives on the GC. He used to be the member for Fairfax and has his Coolum Resort. The Sunshine Coast is more sparse and less populated so it’s easier to form a political base there.

Yep I am happy for Green getting out there and enjoying himself.

You’re right @Votante, I didn’t mention the Sunshine Coast anywhere in my post to try and keep things relevant to the Gold Coast. But I do recognise that Sunshine Coast is also a significant base of support for Palmer. He was the elected member of Fairfax after all. To revise my previous post, the Gold Coast had relatively high amounts of support for the UAP despite the fact that Palmer was never a standing local candidate for the House of Reps anywhere on the Gold Coast.

@SEQ Observer, I don’t know where UAP was at their strongest in QLD in 2022. I believe One Nation scored more votes on the Gold Coast. UAP scored 9% in Werriwa and McMahon, perhaps higher than anywhere in QLD.

It seems like the Robodebt Royal Commission isn’t affecting the betting markets. The odds for the LNP are really short. It’s $1.04 on Sportsbet, $1.02 on TAB. The Greens are $101 and Labor are $12 on TAB.

As of 6am this morning:

Early voting:
Helensvale – 3,483 votes
Runaway Bay – 4,987 votes
Postal Votes – 5,368 votes (of 17,708 applicants)
Total – 13,838

Total electors – 130,912
Turnout in 2022 – 86.54% – 110,531 (of 127,812)

Agree Votante, I think Fadden should be an easy LNP retain, with maybe a small swing of up to 3% or so against them due to it being an open seat contest.

@Yoh An, I think the swing is going to be a bit closer to 5%, but again its going to not have a impact to the outcome.

@Votante, In 2022, correct me if I’m wrong but I think UAP’s best result in QLD was in the division of Wright, which incorporates parts of the Gold Coast Hinterland and Scenic Rim, where they got 8.22%. This was beaten by ONP though who attained 14% of the vote. In Forde, which incorporates the North-Western corner of the Gold Coast and the old Albert Shire (now incorporated into Logan), UAP came very close to 8% and ONP received ~8%. So in Forde, UAP were similarly strong to Wright but more closely matched with ONP. In the Sunshine Coast divisions: Fairfax, Fisher and Longman, UAP’s vote hovered closer to 6%.

Since the Queensland Nickel controversy and the 2017 ONP surge, support for UAP on the Gold Coast and Queensland more broadly, has dwindled. Particularly in 2022. While UAP has dwindled in Queensland, ONP have filled their void. UAP have only recently grown their vote in parts of NSW and Victoria that were both adversely affected by Covid restrictions and have a more culturally diverse composition of constituents than most parts of Queensland. Add Holt and Bruce from Victoria to your list of divisions where the UAP did well. In each, UAP attained around 9% of the vote. ONP seem to be more popular populist party in parts of Australia where there is much less diversity – ie. regional Queensland.

I also think that UAP have weakened in parts of Queensland that would be now dealing with Palmer fatigue. In Queensland, Palmer has been a political figure and force in their public consciousness for close to 10 years. In the other states, his presence might be more recent and novel. Queensland is probably more receptive to (and aware of) some of Palmer’s controversies including Queensland Nickel.

It looks like Sportsbet is pretty confident that the LNP will retain Fadden. Here are the odds:

LNP: $1.04
Labor: $11.00
Greens: $14.00
Independent: $21.00
All other parties: $34.00

Source: https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics/2023-fadden-by-election-7347175

So there is a 96.15% chance of the LNP winning, according to those odds.

Tab odds are:

LNP: $1.02
Labor: $12.00
Independent: $34.00
Greens: $81.00
Others: $101.00

Source: https://www.tab.com.au/sports/betting/Politics/competitions/Australian%20Federal%20Politics/matches/Fadden%20By%20Election

As of 6am this morning:

Early voting:
Helensvale – 4,385 votes
Runaway Bay – 6,193 votes
Postal Votes – 5,368 votes (of 17,708 applicants) (no new update since yesterday)
Total – 15,946

Total electors – 130,912
Turnout in 2022 – 86.54% – 110,531 (of 127,812)

NetherPortal: those odds on ALP are generous given ON will poll +10% & have issued a how to vote to test the most alert and dextrous and determined formal voter. Not qualities ON voters are renowned for? It goes on the ballot like this:
12,13,6, 1, 10, 7, 11, 4, 9, 8, 5,3, 2.

I think Scott Morrison will decide his fate after the Fadden by-election but I could be wrong. There have been rumours about his retirement since the last election. He’s been lying low for a while now. If LNP wins this comfortably, he can safely retire without worrying about an embarrassing by-election result in Cook. If they retain Fadden albeit following a big swing away, there’ll likely be an even bigger swing in Cook. Either way, both seats seem safe for the Liberals.

There has been very little coverage of Fadden By-election in Press and I have seen none on TV. ABC Local radio has had limited coverage. Although there are 13 candidates Main Stream Media just seems to be incapable of dealing with anything but a two horse race.
Fadden is a bit out of my territory but my prediction is LNP retain.
I have not seen Federation Party mentioned once (Other than on Tally Room, and Antony Green)

The AFR is reporting today that AEC has urged voters in the seat of Fadden to vote with the number of votes cast so far are below expectations.”Only about 16,000 people had cast their vote at an early voting centre up until Monday, well below the about 22,000 votes cast in Fadden at the same stage in the 2022 federal election. About 24,000 postal vote applications have been submitted…The early voting numbers we’re seeing are down by approximately 27 per cent based on the same period in 2022 federal election”. I presume a low turnout would assist LNP in this seat?

It may be a low turnout, but also if you were to see a return to people casting their votes on election day, this is what that would look like.

By-election turnout rates tend to be much lower. The high prepoll/postal voting rate at the 2022 federal election was part of the ongoing trend away from election day votes but was increased due to the pandemic. There may be an uptick in election day ordinary votes this time (relative to prepolls/postals) as we are further away from the pandemic.

Not sure Roger, the older and more established members of the community which lean LNP are well-represented in the postal-vote. Coalition often mail-out election advertising material which suggests that voters should apply for a postal-vote. LNP also generally do better at Pre-Poll Voting Centres than election day. Again this might represent older members of the community like retirees which have time and appetite through the week to vote and avoid crowds on the weekend. However, a high-turnout is generally beneficial to Labor as they generally do well amongst the long-tail of the hardest voters to get to turn up and vote – these are generally disadvantaged voters.

Anecdotally, the constituents on Fadden haven’t really caught on that they need to vote yet. Yes there is a lot of outdoor signage out there for the more observant and on-the-go members of the community to notice. There is also advertisements making their way onto TV and online platforms. Most constituents however, despite seeing signage or election material haven’t really connected the dots to recognise that this is relevant to them or that the election is on Saturday.

I mostly agree with Ben Raue’s and Votante’s points that this is a reversion of early-voting rates to “normal”. However, there are a number of factors that would contribute to the turnout being low for this by-election.

Firstly, much of the “official campaign” and the first week of pre-poll voting was conducted on school-holidays which means that a lot of constituents would have either been switched off and doing more important things like spending time with loved ones. Or they might have even been away somewhere else on holiday. Queenslanders would only just be starting to resume their normal working routines now. Worth noting that there would also be a lot of interstate holiday-makers on the Gold Coast right now too.

Second, Fadden being a named division with no reference to any local geographic landmarks or localities relevant to the people in the Gold Coast makes it difficult for its constituents to recognise whether material referencing Fadden is relevant to them or not.

Thirdly, the Gold Coast has a notably transient population with people moving in and out quite regularly. This might mean that a lot of residents have not lived on the Gold Coast long enough to be embedded enough in its local news and politics. This also means that there will be some issues with the AEC mail-outs informing people that they have to vote soon.

Fourthly, Fadden along with its neighbours Forde and Wright have low (amongst the lowest in the country) levels of interest and engagement in politics. This was measured in some dated political research but probably still stands today.

Finally, the contents of some election advertising material, particularly LNP’s election advertising blitz obfuscates the Fadden By-Election and is going for a more broad Queensland-wide anti-Labor campaign which incorporates both State and Federal politics including both Albanese and Palaszczuk. This is not contributing to increased election awareness for Fadden’s constituents.

As of 6am this morning:

Early voting:
All PPVCs – 19,261 votes
Postal Votes – 8,708 votes (of 19,100 applicants)
Total – 27,969

Total electors – 131,340
Turnout in 2022 – 110,531 (of 127,812 – 86.54%)

@SEQ Observer Why has the total number of electors increased to 131,340 in your latest post vs 130,912 in your post a few days ago ? I thought enrolment ended last month.

I see that LNP figures “off the record” are briefing journos saying that they expect a swing against of 3 -4% due the Labor’s “negative campaign” about robodebt (as distinct from Dutton’s negative campaign against the Voice). Meanwhile Husic says that a swing to the LNP of less than 4% will be great result for Labor. Same old same old? Probably of more significance is the fact that Albo has now turned up to campaign in Fadden? I think that the weatherman might be forecasting turbulence ahead? Nether Portal are the odds still 11 to 1 on Labor?