LIB 8.4%
Incumbent MP
Jason Wood, since 2013. Previously 2004-2010.
Geography
La Trobe covers the south eastern fringe of Melbourne and parts of the Dandenong Ranges, centred on Pakenham. It covers most of the Cardinia council area and an eastern portion of the City of Casey.
Redistribution
La Trobe lost Berwick to Bruce. This reduced the Liberal margin from 8.7% to 8.4%.
History
La Trobe was first created after the Second World War when the House of Representatives was expanded at the 1949 election. The seat was first won by Richard Casey, who had previously been an MP and minister before resigning from Parliament in 1940 to serve in a variety of diplomatic roles during the war.
Casey served as a minister for eleven years before resigning in 1960. John Jess won the seat for the Liberal Party in a by-election that year and held the seat until his defeat in 1972, when Whitlam’s national victory swept Tony Lamb into La Trobe. He lost the seat in 1975 and later returned to Parliament serving in the seat of Streeton from 1984 to 1990.
Marshall Baillieu won the seat for the Liberals in 1975 and held it until 1980. That year he was defeated by Peter Milton who held it until 1990 for the ALP. Bob Charles defeated Milton in 1990 and held the seat until 2004, during which he served on the shadow ministry from 1994 to 1996.
Charles retired in 2004 and he was succeeded by Jason Wood. Wood’s 5.8% margin in 2004 was cut to 0.5% in 2007, but he held on in the face of the election of the Rudd government. In 2010, Wood was defeated by Labor candidate Laura Smyth. La Trobe was one of only two seats that the ALP gained off the Coalition in an election where Labor lost ground and lost its parliamentary majority.
Jason Wood won back La Trobe in 2013 and has been re-elected three more times since.
Assessment
La Trobe is a reasonably safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jason Wood | Liberal | 41,786 | 45.6 | -0.2 | 45.2 |
| Abi Kumar | Labor | 23,918 | 26.1 | -7.6 | 26.2 |
| Michael Schilling | Greens | 9,980 | 10.9 | +3.3 | 10.9 |
| Merryn Mott | United Australia | 6,182 | 6.7 | +3.8 | 6.9 |
| Hadden Ervin | One Nation | 4,555 | 5.0 | -0.6 | 5.1 |
| Helen Jeges | Animal Justice | 2,450 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 2.7 |
| Michael Abelman | Liberal Democrats | 1,911 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.1 |
| Rebecca Skinner | Federation Party | 890 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 1.0 |
| Informal | 4,483 | 4.7 | +0.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jason Wood | Liberal | 53,803 | 58.7 | +3.6 | 58.4 |
| Abi Kumar | Labor | 37,869 | 41.3 | -3.6 | 41.6 |
Polling places in La Trobe have been split into four parts. Those in the Pakenham area have been grouped together, with the split between north-east, south-east and south-west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote ranging from 53.5% in Pakenham to 65% in the south-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.3% in the south-east to 15.6% in the north-east.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Pakenham | 13.3 | 53.5 | 14,081 | 16.6 |
| South-West | 11.4 | 55.5 | 8,797 | 10.4 |
| North-East | 15.6 | 55.8 | 6,245 | 7.4 |
| South-East | 7.3 | 65.0 | 5,659 | 6.7 |
| Pre-poll | 10.0 | 59.4 | 31,332 | 36.9 |
| Other votes | 10.0 | 60.7 | 18,740 | 22.1 |
Election results in La Trobe at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
While trump wasn’t the main factor he certainly was a factor. We saw that trump basically made life for conservatives hard all across the world. Even if they didnt screw up they would have been stymied by trumps actions. It’s hard to tell by what extent given their own internal issues occurring concurrently
@ WL
Tasmania also did not warm to Albo in 2022 like suburban Brisbane but certainly did in 2025. Lindsay did have a state/National average swing to Labor in 2025 but it was not enough to overcome the strong 2019 Coalition swing and small positive swing in 2022.
Well, Trump is apparently Albos best friend now, at least as it goes from the White House. Who knows what that means going forward, and 2028 is a long way off.
I think we are going to get our clues as to how the Liberals regroup from the state performance. Vic Libs have issues, but if they can sort them out in time to make a good run in 26, that could show the way forward. Even if they don’t form a government. The same applies to NSW, as that party remains coherent, even though Labor is steady there.
Nimalan tbh i think Tasmania swung against the bad coalition federal campaign prior to feb/march they should have held bass and braddon and won lyons. This is reflected by the state poll where labor floundered as winter thought pt he could steal govt by riding their wave into power. This backfired as libs did considerably better. And tbh labor may have caused itself more problems. Now both Peter George and Bridget archer are in parliament. George being in parliament puts them in trouble in franklin especially if a more lib friendly teal takes his place.
I wonder why was Scott Morrison popular in Tasmania but not Peter Dutton despite both not having strong personal connections to Tasmania?
Because health was a major policy point in Tasmania I’d argue, and the Liberal brand was doing ok on that front at the state and federal level in 2022
@ John
I actually thought Libs would win Lyons like you did and retain Bass and Braddon. Re Franklin i think a Teal could take it but it would be a Teal who would never back Libs in a minority goverment like Allegra Spender etc Franklin is becoming more socially progressive it had a better result for Voice than Republic both on 2022 boundaries.
@ Marh
on ABC election night it was said Scomo was well liked in Tasmania. I am guessing Covid/Bushfires did not really affect Tasmania unlike Mainland Australia so his reputation. Also in 2022 all seats that changed hands outside WA were areas with a large Chinese Australian community (Reid, Bennelong, Chisholm) or Tealish seats (Teal seats, Brisbane, Ryan, Boothby). Tasmanian seats dont fall under any of these category.
Nimlan depending on how the redistribution goes i could see Rebecca white succeeding Collins in franklin. If they choose to discontinue the non contiguous franklin rebecca white would be based in franklin. Instead of lyons
With the exception of Robertson which is a bellwether
@Nimalan – you’ve hit the nail on the head with your description of Tasmania. Whereas the mainland states had significant issues, Tasmania was relatively stable.
I’d also say the popularity of the state Liberals under Peter Gutwein at the time also helped out a lot with keeping a lot of voters inside the Liberal tent.
@ John
Yes Robertoson was the only seat in 2022 that did not fall under the Chinese Australian, Tealish seat, or WA seat catergory.
Other swing seats that did not change hands in 2022
1. Bass
2. Braddon
3. Petrie
4. Forde
5. Lindsay
6. Deakin (due to Pro-Liberal boundaries)
7. La Trobe (due to pro-Liberal boundaries-anti lockdown)
8. Longman
@WL – agreed. I do remember him attending the fundraiser in Sydney and I know that caused a big stir as IIRC Ali France was doing a lot of tasks inside Dickson to help with the effort. And absolutely, the general idea of him being Opposition Leader in a classic marginal seat I think was a huge mistake as having to be two places at once, campaigning and defending your home turf was just too difficult for Dutton this time. Had Sussan Ley been leader, she would have been able to still campaign more actively while knowing her seat was relatively secure (though an independent made substantial inroads especially in Albury), and also at least have peace of mind that a cyclone probably wouldn’t be hitting the area.
Susan Ley being leader would. Ot have helped the liberal party or Peter Dutton in Dickson.
In hindsight they woulda been better off going with Sussan Ley after Morrison lost. She had the same amount of seniority [2001], negated the Women Problem, and held an ultra safe seat.
Ellie Smith siphoned votes from Dutton and directed them to Ali France, ended up 60/40 on 2PP, hard to see anyone winning Dickson again for LNP on those numbers.