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I am curious to see what expectations are here.
a (somewhat) popular Labor government would see this a pickup. Seems too marginal for The Greens ATM – I am aware the local MP is very hyper local which would be a big plus for them.
If Libs decide to direct preferences to Labor rather than open ticket Labor could easily pick this seat up.
Libs will just vote 1 liberal.
All else being equal I’d expect Kobi Shetty to get an incumbency bounce which should somewhat shield her against any state-wide popularity for Labor. Looking at overlapping federal results, the Greens primary seems to have held up in the area so I don’t think there’s been a migration of Greens voters out of the electorate as I think there was from the federal seats they lost.
The Liberal HTV could very well be a factor but I personally doubt they’d bother making a recommendation. We’ll see closer to the actual election if there’s any reason they might. Most Liberal voters will indeed just vote 1 no matter what, but a portion of them would follow a HTV if it recommended sending preferences to Labor, which could make a difference when combined with other factors.