LIB 1.4%
Incumbent MP
Bridget Archer, since 2019.
Geography
Bass covers the north-eastern corner of Tasmania. It covers the LGAs of Launceston, George Town, West Tamar and Dorset. Bass also covers Tasmania’s north-eastern islands, including Flinders Island.
History
Bass was created for the 1903 election, after Tasmania’s MPs were elected at large for the 1901 election. Bass has always been centred on Launceston, and has long been a marginal electorate. Indeed, the seat has changed hands from one MP to another seventeen times in its history, and only twice has an MP been succeeded by a member of the same party.
The seat was dominated by the Barnard family in the middle part of the twentieth century, with Claude Barnard holding the seat from 1934 to 1949, which included a period as Minister for Repatriation in the Chifley government. He was defeated by Liberal candidate Bruce Kekwick in 1949, who himself was defeated by Claude’s son Lance Barnard in 1954. The younger Barnard went on to serve as Deputy Prime Minister under Gough Whitlam from 1972 to 1974, and his resignation triggered the June 1975 Bass by-election, which saw a 14% swing to the Liberal Party, a major blow to the Whitlam government.
Kevin Newman (father of Queensland Premier, Campbell) held the seat from 1975 to 1984, during which time he served as a minister in the Fraser government. He was succeeded by Warwick Smith in 1984. Smith served up to the 1993 election, when he too was defeated by Labor candidate Silvia Smith.
Warwick Smith won the seat back in 1996, and he served as a minister in the first Howard government. He was defeated again in 1998 by Michelle O’Byrne, who held the seat for two terms as a Labor MP before losing in 2004 as part of a backlash against Mark Latham’s forestry policies. She too went on to become a state MP for Bass at the 2006 state election.
At the 2007 election, the sitting Liberal MP Michael Ferguson was defeated himself by Launceston alderman Jodie Campbell. Campbell stepped down in 2010 after one term, and Labor candidate Geoff Lyons won the seat.
Lyons lost in 2013 to Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic, who then lost to Labor’s Ross Hart in 2016. Hart lost in 2019 to Liberal candidate Bridget Archer. Archer was re-elected in 2022.
Assessment
Bass is a marginal seat and is famous for tossing out sitting MPs. Archer has performed well here but this doesn’t mean she is safe.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bridget Archer | Liberal | 27,257 | 39.7 | -2.6 |
| Ross Hart | Labor | 19,630 | 28.6 | -6.1 |
| Cecily Rosol | Greens | 7,614 | 11.1 | +0.6 |
| Bob Salt | Jacqui Lambie Network | 4,587 | 6.7 | +6.7 |
| George Razay | Independent | 3,450 | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Melanie Davy | One Nation | 3,230 | 4.7 | +4.7 |
| Kyle Squibb | United Australia | 1,140 | 1.7 | -3.2 |
| Alison Baker | Animal Justice | 969 | 1.4 | -1.0 |
| Stephen Humble | Liberal Democrats | 732 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Informal | 4,324 | 5.9 | +1.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bridget Archer | Liberal | 35,288 | 51.4 | +1.0 |
| Ross Hart | Labor | 33,321 | 48.6 | -1.0 |
Booths have been divided into eight areas. Four of these areas cover the entirety of their local government area: Dorset, George Town, West Tamar and Flinders Island. Three areas divide up the urban parts of Launceston into Launceston North, Launceston East and Launceston West (which also takes in the edge of West Tamar council area). The remainder of the Launceston council area is grouped as Launceston Rural.
The urban parts of Launceston absolutely dominated the remainder of the electorate, with almost 70% of election-day ordinary votes cast in Launceston.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in five out of six areas, ranging from 53.5% in George Town to 66.6% in Dorset. Labor won 52.1% in urban Launceston, which is the dominant part of the seat. The Liberal Party also won the pre-poll and other votes.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 5.7% in Dorset to 12.6% in urban Launceston.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Launceston Urban | 12.6 | 47.9 | 26,905 | 39.2 |
| West Tamar | 9.5 | 53.9 | 3,776 | 5.5 |
| George Town | 6.0 | 53.5 | 3,077 | 4.5 |
| Dorset | 5.7 | 66.6 | 2,995 | 4.4 |
| Launceston Rural | 10.4 | 54.2 | 2,006 | 2.9 |
| Flinders Island | 7.4 | 62.5 | 421 | 0.6 |
| Pre-poll | 12.8 | 50.4 | 16,598 | 24.2 |
| Other votes | 8.9 | 54.7 | 12,831 | 18.7 |
Election results in Bass at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Given that the Labor margin has ballooned out beyond 5%, there is a high chance that Jess Teesdale as the newly elected MP here manages to avoid the ‘one term wonder’ curse inflicted on several past MPs.
She could be like her fellow female members Michelle O Byrne and Bridget Archer who won second terms, especially if the federal Coalition continue espousing far right, culture war type views in relation to climate change/net zero given that Tasmania is one of the leading states transitioning to renewable energy.
@Yoh An this seat can swing violently without much of a warning. Some MP’s have held the seat with margins of up to 6% and still gone on to lose.
While Teesdale deserves to be favoured ahead of the next election, one crucial trait she will not display that Bridget Archer did is an ability to be bipartisan, and speak out (and vote) against party lines.