Reid – Australia 2019

LIB 4.7%

Incumbent MP
Craig Laundy, since 2013.

Geography
Inner Western Sydney. Reid covers suburbs along the southern shore of Parramatta River from Drummoyne to Homebush Bay. It covers the City of Canada Bay and parts of Auburn, Burwood and Strathfield council areas. Major suburbs are Drummoyne, Five Dock, Croydon, Homebush, Strathfield and Burwood.

History
The seat of Reid was created for the 1922 election, while Lowe was created as part of the expansion of the Parliament in 1949. Reid had been held by either the ALP or Jack Lang’s Labor breakaway parties for its entire history, while Lowe had a history of alternating between the ALP and Liberal Party. Since the two seats were effectively merged in 2010, Reid has gone to the party of government.

The seat of Reid was first won in 1922 by Labor candidate Percy Coleman. Coleman was re-elected in 1925, 1928 and 1929, but at the 1931 election he was defeated by Joseph Gander, candidate for Jack Lang’s breakaway NSW Labor Party. Gander was re-elected as a Lang Labor candidate in 1934 before rejoining the ALP when Jack Lang reconciled with the federal ALP.

Gander was re-elected as an official ALP candidate in 1937, but in 1940 Jack Lang again split away from the ALP, but with less of his former supporters in NSW following him. Gander followed Lang out of the ALP, but lost at the 1940 election to official ALP candidate Charles Morgan.

Morgan held the seat until the 1946 election, when Jack Lang himself ran in Reid and defeated Morgan. Lang was a former NSW Premier who had led a breakaway Labor party in NSW on a number of occasions.

The 1949 election saw the creation of the new seat of Blaxland, and Lang ran in that seat unsuccessfully. Morgan regained Reid in 1949, holding it until 1958.

Charles Morgan was defeated for ALP preselection by Tom Uren before the 1958 election. Morgan ran as an independent, but was defeated comfortably by Uren.

Uren served as Minister for Urban and Regional Development in the Whitlam government. He served as a Deputy Leader of the ALP from 1976 to 1977, and became the leading figure in the ALP’s left in the late 1970s. He opposed Bob Hawke’s leadership and thus was excluded from Cabinet when Hawke was elected Prime Minister in 1983. He served as a junior minister for four years before moving to the backbench in 1987.

Uren retired at the 1990 election, and was succeeded by Laurie Ferguson, who had been the state member for Granville since 1984. Ferguson has held Reid since 1990.

Lowe was first created for the 1949 election, when it was won by William McMahon (LIB). McMahon was elevated to Robert Menzies’ ministry in 1951, serving in a variety of portfolios over the next fifteen years. Upon Menzies’ retirement in 1966 McMahon became Treasurer in Harold Holt’s cabinet.

When Harold Holt disappeared in December 1967 McMahon was the presumptive successor, but Country Party leader John McEwen refused to serve with McMahon as Prime Minister. McMahon withdrew and Senator John Gorton was elected leader and moved to the House of Representatives.

McMahon served as Gorton’s Foreign Minister, but challenged Gorton for the leadership following the 1969 election unsuccessfully. In 1971 McEwen retired and Gorton’s leadership was undermined by the resignation of Malcolm Fraser from the cabinet. Gorton called a party meeting, and the ballot was tied between Gorton and McMahon, which led to Gorton’s resignation and McMahon’s election as leader and Prime Minister.

McMahon led the Coalition into the 1972 election, and was defeated by Gough Whitlam’s Labor Party. McMahon served in Billy Snedden’s shadow cabinet up to the 1974 election, and then served as a backbencher until his retirement in 1982.

Lowe had been marginal for most elections during McMahon’s service, particularly since the 1961 election. He had only held the seat with a 1.1% margin at the 1980 election, and a swing of 9.4% swing saw Labor candidate Michael Maher win the seat at the 1982 by-election, one year before Bob Hawke defeated Malcolm Fraser at the 1983 election. Maher was a state MP for Drummoyne from 1973 until the 1982 by-election.

Maher was reelected in 1983 and 1984, but was defeated in 1987 by Bob Woods (LIB). Woods was reelected in 1990, and defeated in 1993 by Mary Easson (ALP). Woods was appointed to the Senate in 1994 and served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Howard government’s first year before resigning from the Senate in 1997 following allegations of abuse of parliamentary privilege.

Easson only held Lowe for one term, losing her seat in the 1996 landslide to Liberal candidate Paul Zammit, who had been a state MP for first Burwood and then Strathfield from 1984 until 1996. Zammit resigned from the Liberal Party in protest at aircraft noise in 1998 and contested the 1998 election as an independent, polling 15%. The seat was won in 1998 by the ALP’s John Murphy, who held the seat until 2010.

In 2010, John Murphy was re-elected in the redrawn seat of Reid, while former Member for Reid Laurie Ferguson moved to the seat of Werriwa.

Murphy lost to Liberal candidate Craig Laundy in 2013 with a 3.5% swing. Laundy was re-elected in 2016.

Candidates

Assessment
Reid is a marginal seat and will likely be in play.

2016 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Craig Laundy Liberal 44,212 48.8 -0.6
Angelo Tsirekas Labor 32,918 36.3 -1.3
Alice Mantel Greens 7,673 8.5 +0.8
Ju Kang Christian Democratic Party 3,713 4.1 +2.5
Marylou Carter Family First 2,081 2.3 +2.3
Informal 4,748 5.0

2016 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Craig Laundy Liberal 49,543 54.7 +1.4
Angelo Tsirekas Labor 41,054 45.3 -1.4

Booth breakdown

Booths in Reid have been split into three parts. “East” covers booths in the former Drummoyne council area. “South” covers booths in the Burwood, Strathfield, Cumberland and Inner West council areas. “North-West” covers booths in the former Concord council area and the Parramatta council area.

The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 51.6% in the south to 56.2% in the north-east.

Voter group LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North-West 55.3 22,998 25.4
South 51.6 22,048 24.3
North-East 56.2 17,659 19.5
Other votes 55.5 13,166 14.5
Pre-poll 55.8 14,726 16.3

Two-party-preferred votes in Reid at the 2016 federal election

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132 COMMENTS

  1. This should go Labor next election, although I can see this becoming Liberal-leaning as opposed to a bellwether over time – the areas in the north (i.e. the state seat of Drummoyne) have contributed to this big time.

  2. Anton….. hope you are right….. but the Drummoyne area is changing towards the libs.
    Mr Laundy has moved to Hunters Hill out of the electorate

  4. Massive demographic changes here. Laundy will in all likelihood increase his margin. The state seat of Drummoyne is now a 70% LPA seat on 2PP.

  8. Yes Alecander retires, Laundy now lives in Bennelong, its a safer seat and they are factionally aligned.

  11. Laundy has proven to be an awesome campaigner, & popular local MP.As I’ve said before, no one works their electorate harder. He increased his margin in 2016 by winning over the labor areas round Lidcombe. Ironically the strong lib areas went slightly backwards.
    Problem is, that he has been total disaster as a minister. He is a good example of the most common usual cause -lack of intellect. Ministers need to be uncommonly bright to deal with the volume of information they receive. Laundy was particularly stupid to move out of the electorate.
    Laundy is a good example of Von Clausewitz’s definition of the most dangerous type of general- industrious, & stupid.

  12. Let’s apply the living in your electorate test a all ALP federal members, particularly in Victoria.
    Either it matters as a general principle or it doesn’t. Don’t cherry pick Laundy, who incidentally lives 700m out of his electorate. Dreyfus lives 25ks out of his!!

  13. Moderate
    Of course you are right. My point was merely that it was an unnecessary, & stupid action, on the part of Laundy. Dreyfuss is of course, the most disgusting of hypocrites. For a Jew to use the holocaust, & Nazi references, for capricious, & baseless attacks is appalling, & inexcusable.

  14. Moderate and Wine diamond
    It matters whether a candidate lives in an electorate in some cases andf not others, In some cases it matters which part of the electorate they are from. In one country town I once lived in it mattered whether one’s great great grandfather was born in the right part of the electorate. In another country town population of the town had been 20 ten years previously and was then 10,000. Not a sole cared where the candidate lived or had lived six months previously. This town voted solidly for ALP Councillors and Federal Candidate but continually voted National for a State Member who was a continuous fixture at every public event.

    Campbell Newman met with an attack on his residential address when he was within walking distance of the electorate.

    Circumstances alter cases. It matters in some cases and not in others therefore what we need is an explanation why does it matter, how do you know that it matters.

    Just as comments such as xxxx party will win yyyy electorate are of no real value to readers What is needed is why you think xxxx party will win.

    Cherry picking is a valid option in some cases and not in others.

    ALP in Qld few years ago ran a young Labor candidate in a north western Queensland electorate who had never been to electorate and did not visit during the election.

    Generally I think you can say the smaller the community the more important that residential locality matters. I convinced a political staffer that running in Queensland Redcliffe by-election was a waste of time if not resident on the Peninsula.

  15. Here to move to Hunters Hill..suggests I have made it….this is the issue which may of May not matter….i

  16. @Andrew Jackson, regarding your Queensland example, adding to the insult was that the district in question included Barcaldine, birthplace of the Labor Party.

    Of course one of the few reasons for parties to bother at all with unwinnable seats is to maximise the upper house vote. Queensland is unique in having removed that incentive. In fact it now makes more sense for Labor to run dead in the most conservative seats and hope that KAP or One Nation can deny the LNP.

  17. @Andrew Jackson – I don’t think there is a blanket rule about where you live relative to where you run, especially if the boundaries shift. Take John Howard for Example. He lived in Bennellong when he first ran but over time, boundary redistributions meant that he was eventually living in North Sydney. On that side, I don’t think people really care that much. Certainly, jumping across the Parramatta River (in the case of Laundy) will be cause for concern but I’d suggest that making a blanket suggestion doesn’t reflect the fact that it is really a case-by-case basis.

    As for this seat in general, this is a coin-flip as the seat is becoming a traditionally marginal Liberal Seat, especially when you consider at a State level that Drummoyne is becoming a solid Liberal Seat and Strathfield is a genuine Marginal Seat.

  18. I don’t think that’s fair on his ministerial roles.

    He was perfect in multicultural affairs, and did well being saddled with the innovation agenda despite his senior minister falling ill (sinodinos) and the portfolio falling out of favour post 2016 election.

    In his current portfolio he’s well respected in the small and family business space. It just so happens that workplace relations are attracting the headlines, and in my opinion it’s a horrible decision from Turnbull to put him in the portfolio.

    He’s built his political reputation as larrakin pragmatist who has friends in both sides of the chamber. Suddenly he’s expected to be the head kicking ideologue fighting unions?

    On top of which, he’s again lost his senior minister in Cash, who’s MIA in the debate and exactly the type of person needed for the govts campaign.

  19. I don’t think his wealth is any surprise to people… it was one of labor’s attack points in 2013.

    Also not sure hunters hill will swing the seat. His family has been in strathfield for decades before.

  20. Mtown
    So Laundy did well in the fluffy, feel good portfolio of Multicultural Affairs. Great !, terrific !. The unions are still handing him his backside.
    Sam Crosby is a formidable opponent. I watch him weekly on PML. If he had Shorten’s job the Libs would lose 25 seats.

  21. winediamond

    As I said, workplace relations was a horrible decision by Turnbull. He should’ve been another Bruce Billson.

  24. Where have you heard this mick? I fully expect he will run here he has the backing of many liberal MP’s This seat will be tight but i expect he will hold on with a Razor thin margin

  27. winediamond

    Sam Crosby is not formidable, he’s just another privileged uncharismatic party elite blown in. I heard he wanted Londonderry but it wasn’t upper class enough for him. I can’t understand why Labor keeps propping up these cardboard cut-out candidates.

  28. Alex Taylor
    I have to agree with you.
    Laundy was fantastic when he stood up against sexism. But Mr Crosby is not the right candidate for such a multicultural and diverse seat. At least Laundy has had a track record of being fair and not some political careerist. I mean Crosby is best mates with Dastyari and what’s with that photo of him rowing in the local papers? I read his book and it reads like a long Wikipedia entry. I am sorry, but Labor needs to select better candidates.

  29. Huge blow for the Liberals here, according to Sportsbet Labor is ahead $1.57 with the Coalition trailing on $2.20. This seat is definitely in play

  32. It’s not muck Laundy considering retiring when it’s reported Prime Minister Scott Morrison spent two hours trying to convince Craig Laundy to recontest his seat. If Laundy goes the seat goes to Labor. Liberals will struggle even if Laundy recontest however his outspoken support of Turnbull may deter some voters disgruntled with Turnbull being toppled as Prime Minister switching to Labor.

  33. Ben looking at your classification by area suggest alternate
    Lidcombe
    Olympic park
    Concord
    Drummoyne
    Burwood- Strathfield

  35. Alex Taylor, & Stephanie Cleary Pay close attention please
    It is not often i will defend ANY politician. A labor one would be almost unheard of. Sam Crosby is one politician i have high regard for. Here are some reasons
    1/ He has had to face considerable personal challenge, through overcoming dyslexia.
    2/ This has given him genuine, & authentic compassion as opposed to the faux bullshit of other pollies.
    3/ He has a real economics degree., He is not just a scholar, or intellectual, but a real person, in the real world , with a young family that he clearly cares about deeply
    4/ In the enneagram he is a type 3 fixation, & he does not appear deeply fixated, this places him closer to Morrison than any other Labor MP.
    5/ Because type 3s are invested in progress, achievement ,success, & winning i see him as being practical, pragmatic, & negotiable on anything in the national interest. Because he is not a heavily fixated 3 like Phelps, Turnbull etc he will adhere reality, & substance instead of the deception, & illusion of the image, of success.
    6/ When (not if) the global warming scare debacle , loses it’s potency, & ceases to be a currency of fear (that could get him elected) watch him drop the 45% RET like a hot potato.

    I could go on but that is enough. Sam Crosby is a good man. We do need 50 more like him.
    cheers WD

  36. what impresses me the most is how Sam managed to be there for his wife Rose when her mum recently passed away………. this suggests he cares what a quality for a would be politican

  37. Mick
    Too true. The bloke has real depth, & would be a gift. Hopefully Labor won’t waste time finding him another seat, or senate spot after the election. When a man such as Sam can’t get a winnable seat, because of “gender quotas” questions do need to be asked.
    cheers WD

  38. Craig Laundy the next MP to quit….

    at this rate Morrison and Abbott could be the last two standing

    For Laundy,the prospect of 3,6,9 or 12 years in opposition is not that appealing

  39. Latest Newspoll result shows Labor ahead 53/47
    on this basis Craig Laundy would have trouble holding the seat……retirement now a viable option

  40. I would not consider this seat to be a done deal for Labor. it is increasingly becoming affluent, and the swing to the Liberals at the last election has reflected that. It is the same at the state level. So Labor COULD get this seat, but the swing might have to be bigger to counteract the gentrification.

  41. Suspect cohort of waterside apartment dwellers that has been driving drift to Libs here will be unhappy with Turnbull going just as their Victorian equivalents were unhappy with Guy. They will stay with state Libs however

  42. Morrison,giving a press conference at Penrith hints that Craig Laundy will be the next MP to quit

    the PM desperately talking up the number of women standing in the election……presser cut short by minder,as questions start getting way too difficult

  43. If Laundy retires as expected, I can’t imagine a seat like this being able to withstand the national swing to the ALP.

  44. Boatswain
    National swing ??. Do you really think QLD will swing like VIC, or WA ??. Im far from convinced BS will get much traction in NSW, if any. Let’s wait & see what happens on Mar 19 shall we ?

    As for Reid. What no one seems to have factored in, is the shifting demographics of Reid itself. About 1, 1/2% per election. That means the real margin is over 6%. If i didn’t rate Sam Crosby, i’d say this was very safe.

    Geoff robinson
    You need to get out more. Very wishful thinking

  45. Polls have been showing a pretty clear ~4% swing to the ALP and Shorten and labor won a lot of marginals in Sydney & outer Sydney in 2016, so I’m not sure what the issue is. Reid is a pretty moderate electorate that Turnbull would have done well in, and the sacking of Turnbull combined with the loss of what sounds like a hard working and well-liked local member is probably enough to make the seat change hands.

  47. Cant handle the truth? Labor gain, Why did you put No all in caps? Laundy should be staying if this seat has any chance of staying with them.

  48. Just about all the affluent but moderate LIB seats in Sydney, (Reid, North Sydney, etc) resisted the state wide swing back to ALP in 2016. How much was that propped up by Malcolm? With no Malcolm, the language of Morrison and Dutton in their face every day and an old state LIB government (regardless of State election result), how much will he swing in these seats be above the state average this time??

  49. Whilst named as Reid, this seat is essentially more the abolished seat of Lowe. I agree that its “in play” and some chance of switching hands but I wouldn’t care to wager any sum of money on it. On its current boundaries, its likely to remain marginal either way with a tilt towards Lib. In a good year for Libs, the margin may inflate into what is considered “fairly safe”, conversely Lab can hope to pick it up in a good year.

  50. High St
    Do you really believe Malcolm was actually a vote winner ? What are “immoderate lib electorates ? Conservative ? What are the crucial vote deciding issues that separate the two ?. when they shifted you from N Sydney to Bradfield did you mutate from a moderate liberal, into something else !!?? If so, what exactly?

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