Kooyong – Australia 2019

Greens are that little bit weaker here than in Higgins. They could take a run at Frydenberg, especially since he’s environment minister, and there may be a “nobody else has ever tried” swing to be won.

However they don’t really have a base. For Higgins, Greens have Prahran and before that they were regularly on Stonnington council.

Here, Booroondara has single member wards, and Hawthorn hasn’t been held by Labor since the 50s.

It’s a much tougher mountain to climb than Higgins.

Finishing second here would be a legitimate goal for the Greens. Perhaps a few of those booths around Swinburne Uni could turn Green in a 2CP vs the Liberals.

But there’s way too much old-school conservative territory here for the Liberals to be under serious threat.

Mark M
Now that he Yarra has been breached (as a boundary), do think there is any chance of Kooyong moving north into Ivanhoe ?

I would not view the straddling of the river in the north-east as a precedent for breaching the Yarra elsewhere. On the contrary, Menzies straddles the Yarra precisely to avoid other unnecessary crossings. If the next redistribution requires more transfers between the east and the north then Menzies can be that release valve.

If Kooyong needs to expand, its community-of-interest surely lies east to Box Hill/Surrey Hills/Burwood or south to Glen Iris, not north to Ivanhoe.

WD,

No, if Kooyong needed to keep gaining electors, I think it is far more likely that the boundary would simply extend along Elgar Road to take in the rest of Mont Albert and Surrey Hills. It could even go further south to Burwood Highway if needed.

Also, even if they needed to add more territory on the northern bank to a ‘southern’ seat, they would probably just make adjustments through Menzies instead of having a second seat jump the river.

I don’t see Kooyong moving north of the Yarra, there may be a time when Richmond is added to the seat. I could see the AEC creating a seat that covers the Toorak/Malvern end of Stonnington, Richmond, Hawthorn and maybe Kew however I think its more likely that Kooyong will continue to move eastward towards Box Hill or southward into Glen Iris.

John

A few years ago, the area around Glenferrie Rd Oval elected the former Federal ALP for Kooyong candidate to the local council. The seat of Hawthorn would be competitive for the ALP if the seat was based on its 1950s boundaries with covered parts of Richmond and excluded the Camberwell half of today’s seat.

The area around Swinburne tends to have more flats and smaller houses which wouldn’t be out of place in Fitzroy which explains why the Liberal vote is softer compared to the rest of the seat.

The Swinburne booth is the one marked in red and the two booths to the south of it are typically marginal booths although the Liberals enjoy clear primary vote leads in both booths.

I wonder if the controversy surrounding the donation to the Great Barrier Reef Foundation will hurt Frydenberg’s vote. It seems to be getting more and more media attention.

Frydenberg will never lose here, the Greens even with a modest campaign should very easily sail into second.

The most interesting part being that booths around Hawthorn are only 55-45 2CP Lib-Labor, if that was Lib-Green it would have been 53-47. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hawthorn was the Greens outside target at the upcoming state election.

Some Guy
It ought to. Unfortunately (FOR Malcolm) there has been an association formed between the “donation” (Theft of Commonwealth funds !) & the drought. Something about priorities !……..

L96

If the Greens can improve their vote in Camberwell which we see above is about 10% lower than the Hawthorn booths, then the Greens could be a chance of picking up Hawthorn.

Kooyong looks beyond the Greens or the ALP however if this seat was to move into Box Hill or into Richmond then it will move towards becoming a marginal, although in light of the recent leadership carry on it will probably return to a sub10% margin.

Frydenberg being deputy PM should offset all the other factors that will make the Liberal vote collapse in Victoria.

Reports in the Australian the Labor party will run a strong campaign in this seat. A ReachTel poll put out commissioned by a union has Labor ahead 52-48 in this seat on two party preferred and Liberals primary vote dropping 18% to 40% while Labor is on 29% and the Greens 15% . In the article some Liberals suggest their concerned while others have suggested Labor is bluffing to unnerve Liberal MP’s and suggested a independent would more likely be a contender. Some Liberals sources concede they may have to move resources in the seats of Kooyong and Higgins that would be instead going into other seats.

The article suggests the Liberals would likely make up ground during the election to hold Kooyong and Higgins. But it also notes in the state election three of the four state seats in the Kooyong are now held by Labor.

on state figures…. this seat Higgins and maybe goldstein would be close……….. but I would expect all 3 liberal mps to be respected given the nature of those seats

re elected

Talk of Labor winning Kooyong is fanciful. Whatever some dodgy poll might show.

To say Labor holds three of the four overlapping state seats is superficially true but very misleading. The overlapping seats are Kew (Lib 55%), Hawthorn (ALP 50.4%) and small parts of Box Hill and Burwood. Though Labor won the latter two seats, both are more Liberal leaning in their eastern ends (i.e. the parts overlapping Kooyong).

If you’re less sceptical than I am, you can still get very juicy odds of 20-1 on a Labor win here.

Political Nightwatchman, Please give me links to Seat polls, i cannot find them, other than that its all fabricated, I have not found a single seat poll on the Polling websites, Please provide me with a link source

> both are more Liberal leaning in their eastern ends (i.e. the parts overlapping Kooyong)

That should read western ends.

David

The Liberals suffered very large swings across the Balwyn/Mont Albert end of Box Hill and in the Kooyong based booths in the state seat of Burwood. The other day I did a rough booth check and found Frydenberg was on 52% from around 60% of the Kooyong electorate.

Depending on who the ALP candidate is and how the campaign goes then Kooyong could be close but 12.8% should be enough for Frydenberg to survive.

There has been a bit of a misconception surrounding the Hawthorn result, people have focused on the Swinburne part of the area, however the Liberals lost a booth in Camberwell and one in Canterbury South.

To demonstrate how big the booths were in the state election take a look at the TTP graph above

-The Canterbury South booth – The 65% booth just below the word Canterbury, that went to the ALP
-Auburn South booth – The 66% booth just below Hawthorn East, that was held by the Liberals on 52%
-Auburn North booth – the 57% booth just to the right of the Swinburne booth shown in red, that went ALP by 57%

The ALP also won the Greythorn booth in Balwyn, just unheard off.

These kind of swings happened across the seat.

Frydenburg is very likely to hold Kooyong the swing here will probably be well above the national average but I doubt it will be enough for Labor to win. Labor are a better chance than 20 to 1 odds to win, I’d think more like 10 to 1 at this rate, but it would need a 1943 scale of landslide or more for it to change hands.

I lived in Kooyong in the last years the local MHR Sir Robert Menzies was PM before he retired and very WASP and “churchy” it was back then too. No pubs or bad behaviour either. My sister and I went to nice Protestant school like Camberwell Grammar School, Canterbury and Methodist Ladies College, Kew.

We boys in the school cadet unit could shoot and hit the target with the .303 Rifle, Owen Machine Carbine and the Bren Light Machine Gun. Oh, for the good old school day. The ALP tried to close school cadet down nationally but that failed in the end.

Lots of future actors and musicians at the school when I was there too like the late Greg Ham (Men at Work band), Kim Gyngel (Very Small Business), Andrew McFarland (Glitch and Play School).

Some said back then (no one I knew) according to some newspapers that they did not like Mr Menzies “except all those who voted for him” at every election as Barry Humphreys once said in a TV interview.

Labor’s best state will probably be Victoria and especially in the metro and near Metro seats……… I suspect Monash will be their safest seat on the assumption that Mr Broadbent re contests

the seat of John Latham, Menzies and Peacock was always safe liberal……. the fact that there can be serious talk of a changed mp…….. wow shows the liberals are in a bad state………..

Whilst there appears strong grounds for LAB to harvest seats in and around Melbourne; I think Kooyong and its prevailing demographics will be a bridge too far. Yes, I can see the margin taking a hit (if the state seat of Hawthorn is any guide but if any “traditional” LIB seats in the eastern suburbs are “on the table”; its Higgins and Goldstein that appear more realistically in play. The seats further out/suburban fringe look for the most part in play with only Aston looking a fairly safe bet re LIB retention. I don’t think ALL will go but its fair to say that Corangamite, Deakin, Casey, Latrobe, Dunkley & Flinders look likely to be heavily contested.

C Wombat
I do hope you are correct about Labor going after Deakin, & Flinders. Kooyong, & Higgins would be sensational !!. A month ago i wouldn’t have believed it possible that labor could be so stupid. Recent events are starting to make me far more open minded !!

According to a panellist on the ABC’s “The Drum” tonight when Sir Robert Menzies retired he was broke and the Liberal party and supporters had to do a wipe round to buy him a house. Since 1949 he has lived in the PM’s house in Canberra. How times have change.

winediamond – I am assuming you’re not from Melbourne?

I think if you’re from another state, particularly NSW where the Liberals are just nowhere near as “on the nose” as in Victoria, it would be harder to understand just how strong the anti-Liberal sentiment is across Melbourne right now, even in the blue-ribbon belt.

The biggest swings against the Liberals in the state election specifically happened across the blue-ribbon Liberal belt (state seats held within Kooyong, Higgins & Goldstein) with swings in double-digits.

Now don’t get me wrong, I understand that federal Labor and Bill Shorten are not as popular as state Labor and Daniel Andrews; but that’s pretty much evened out by the fact that the federal Liberals and Scott Morrison are even more unpopular than the state Liberals and Matthew Guy (who at least had Melbourne issues to campaign on).

In regards to Higgins – remember that the federal seat of Higgins contains both a Greens seat (Prahran) and a safe Labor seat (Oakleigh) within its boundaries. The Liberals got under 35% in both, and had a -11% in their heartland seat of Malvern which had its margin cut to 5%. Also, the Liberals only hold Higgins by 7.6% and the polling places within it swung by over 10% in November..

I agree Kooyong is a tougher ask but it’s close enough that it’s smart for Labor to target, because it forces the Liberals to use valuable resources there. And they are broke in Victoria as it is.

WD, at no point did I say that ALL of those seats will fall ….. I doubt they will and frankly I would NOT invest any major amount of resources on Kooyong (or Aston for that matter) unless there is clear polling evidence or major faux pas on the part of sitting members to justify doing so.

However, for the rest of the seats named; the evidence of the recent state election is that voters in these seats ARE/WERE of a mind to ditch their traditional LIB voting patterns. Yes, state voting does not automatically corrolate to Federal but the fact that these areas did swing so violently does justify LAB pursueing at least some of these Fed seats.

I agree with Trent that the current make-up of Higgins (whilst still containing a certain blue ribbon area) has sufficient swing/potentially LAB friendly turf to be a legitimate target. Goldstein is a much bigger “ask” but the scope of the swings in Brighton, Sandringham & Caulfied were such that it bears “having a look at”.

Commonwombat

Kooyong isn’t as safe as the 12.8% margin would suggest, during the Howard years the seat’s margin slowly narrowed to around 7% before Frydenberg became the MP, and has has been able to build the margin back to its current level. Part of the reason why he has been able to reverse the downward trend in the Liberal vote is because he has been an active local MP with minimal opposition, so the question is can he maintain what was the strongest margin the Liberals have had in decades while at the same time being a leading member of the government. The ALP vote should increase on the back of a softer Green vote and that this government is seeking a third term.

My assessment is that Frydenberg will hold however I wouldn’t be surprised if the margin returns to its Howard era levels, it is possible that the swing could be larger but the ALP will have to invest some effort into the seat, even if it just forces the Liberals to spend resources on their own turf.

Hi Trent
I appreciate the veracity of your reasoning, & the facts you present. However in view of the recent ructions, i feel like doubling down. I remain unconvinced the Labor blitzkrieg in Victoria will go beyond Casey. This will be enough however to give BS his monumental vindication to himself, his superior intellect, & outright greatness.

Goldstein which is roughly the state seats of Brighton and Sandringham……… came within 1% of being lost by the liberals……….. this state election result may not be repeated…… but…………..

WD, I can agree with your prognosis that we are likely to see the margin in Kooyong significantly reduced but the core baseline demographics of this seat are it will remain in LIB hands in all bar “hell freezes over: circumstances …. and even then it will be to an Independent rather than LAB. LAB probably should not run completely dead but there are far more gettable targets available competing for resources and unless Frydenberg shoots himself in the foot, it should not be seen as a priority target seat.

C Wombat
That wasn’t my prognosis !!. Funnily enough i believe the swings in Victoria will be highly uneven, & unpredictable. Kooyong is one place, & there may not be many, that will be pretty uneventful As i said to Trent i feel like doubling down.

Winediamond

I don’t think Casey will fall, sure it looks marginal however it is the kind of seat that may like Morrison and the state seats within it while recording swings against the Liberals, however those swings were somewhat moderate compared to elsewhere.

TPTMTBP
You may well be right about Casey. just my gut feel on the “high water” mark. i am much more interested in the” low water” mark in QLD !!. But in 2022 Victoria will be fascinating . If Keilor goes INTO Marybynong in the next redistribution, i’d be very tempted to call Labor losing it.

Wine Diamond’s comment about swings being in even in Victoria are correct but I think this will be a nationwide trend. Just about every party is running an us vs them campaign. Issues such as change the rules Adani Refugees and Franking credits gain votes in one electorate and lose votes in others. The tendency to concentrate on those seats with low two party margins (which we all do) does not mean that swings will not occur in safe seats. Unfortunately we do not have reliable polling for Divisions or even Similar Divisions. Poll’s show up State, Age and Sex but they do not show up an aggregate of outer metro, or an aggregate of provincial seats and that is assuming swings there will be uniform. The current looming cyclone could go anywhere from Cairns to Newcastle and regional consequences will be reflected in election results.
I regard all polls as more accurate than party workers gut feeling.
My gut feeling (accurate or inaccurate) is that polls are far more accurate in FirstPreference voting than they are in 2 PPV.
Polls push for a 2PPV they seem to actively discourage the possibility of a hung Parliament. They take no account of those of us who consciously try to ensure that the Government does not have a majority in the Senate. As a below the line voter in the Senate I will have an order that places some ALP ahead of some Liberals and vice versa.

Wine Diamond, your “If Keilor goes INTO Marybynong in the next redistribution, i’d be very tempted to call Labor losing it.” is ambitious. Is it too dangerous for the Maribyrnong 2019 page comments section?

Andrew.
YES. thank you. I don’t think i can disagree with anything you have said, at least today !! Although i am doubtful that the Cash Refund issue will GAIN any votes (for Labor), from anywhere

Andrew 3040
Yes you are correct, on all counts. Yes it is very ambitious, as a call, but i do enjoy being adventurous , some say challenging !!.
Yes you are quite right about the MARYBYNONG thread being highly dangerous, at least it is for me !!. I have avoided it actively, & fanatically for over a year !!. I do actually have a post prepared. However my visceral hatred, & loathing of the MP in residence there is so profound , that Ben would probably feel obliged to ban me (again !!.) So there is a vow…….!!. Don’t know whether i can keep it …….!!! But i’m trying……!!!

just a point……… individual seat polls tend to be hit and miss ……. they are not reliable but state and national polls tend to be much more accurate

Andrew3040

I agree that a seat centred on Essendon, Moonee Ponds, Straithmore, Keilor, Niddrie, Ascot Vale and Pascoe Vale would be interesting but would probably only go Liberal when the ALP suffered landslide defeats otherwise it would probably be a marginal ALP seat.

I posted this in “The AUSTRALIAN” 1 Month ago
Very good Josh. You are 100 % correct. However you would add a razor edge to your argument if you had the sense, & humility to recognise the total abject failure of YOUR governments “Debt Levy”.

It has now been absolutely proven that the Levy COST the govt revenue !!. You raised the rate & collections went DOWN !!. You stuffed up mate. It was a signature policy FAILURE !!. How about an apology !!??. I won’t hold my breath, nor should any other Aussie.

The good news is that if you can bring yourselves to fully acknowledge your own massive, massive error. Then you can rip into Labor for having the unpardonable idiocy, for intending to repeat, & replicate one of Australia’s most historic policy failures.

Don’t you think that is worth eating a little humble pie !!!??

Nah, you blokes aren’t capable of that kind of common sense. That is why BS will be PM

Julian Burnside standing as a candidate for the Greens
Suddenly Josh Frydenberg is feeling very very nervous….
Things are crook for the Libs when they have to start sandbagging Kooyong

Lay off the personal insults or you’ll be blocked, Winediamond.

According to ABC Melbourne Radio this morning Greens candidate Julian Burnside only joined the Greens a week ago. Some lightning pre-selection and were the electorate Greens members consulted? I dont think his name will have much impact on the election result as his pet gripe, illegal immigrants in boats, was largely resolved with the “stop the boats” policy years ago.

This pre-selection is probably being done by the Greens to try and damage a potential future Liberal leader and to build up their campaign funds from the taxpayer when Burnside gets 4% or more of the primary vote like the last Greens candidate did last election. The Greens get lots of taxpayer funds when they dont win like other unsuccessful candidates,

Ben
Yeah right.
Some one like Burnside says such hateful stuff, with such repetition, is it really so surprising (That i got carried away)?. So i do apologise sincerely for forcing you(to go to the trouble) to intervene. I’ll tone it down
cheers WD

Burnside is too controversial to win Kooyong. They are not putting him there to win put rather to be a standard bearer and gain publicity. A reasonable strategy.

A grown man in “trendy” Dame Edna Everage type glasses looks odd too.

Adrian –

To my knowledge, the electoral funding laws have recently been tightened. You can now only get back as much as you spend.

“According to ABC Melbourne Radio this morning Greens candidate Julian Burnside only joined the Greens a week ago. Some lightning pre-selection and were the electorate Greens members consulted?”

This is technically correct, he didn’t *officially* join the party until a week ago. However, he has been an active Greens volunteer for years now, handing out HTVs etc. I remember the Murdoch papers calling him a “closet Greens member” at previous elections.

Either way – Peterjk23 is on the money with the reasons for choosing him. The Greens rank and file may have an issue with his preselection if it were a winnable seat like Cooper, but in this case he’s a symbolic choice, and as Australia’s most famous human rights lawyer, probably a reasonable choice.